Round 2027
Round 1 of 20 in simulation 11 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Core disaster, and the index −0.403 to 6.77.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2027 (the end of 2026) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 6.77 (−0.403)
- In: 7.18
- Rank by index
- 85
- In: 79
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 13
- In: 0
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2.90 | 2.89 | −0.012 | 12 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7.88 | 7.24 | −0.639 | 7 → 8 |
| National Security | 4.60 | 4.44 | −0.159 | 9 |
| Human Capital | 7.68 | 7.35 | −0.329 | 12 |
| Information & Influence | 8.21 | 8.06 | −0.150 | 9 |
| Governance & Integrity | 8.89 | 8.53 | −0.367 | 14 → 15 |
| Financial Strength | 8.57 | 7.84 | −0.725 | 17 → 20 |
| Production & Innovation | 7.57 | 7.04 | −0.536 | 14 → 15 |
| Trade & Investment | 8.30 | 7.59 | −0.709 | 12 → 13 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2027: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 161. Maintenance 124. Spent 24 on actions (build 15, buy 5, partner 5). 13 carried over.
- PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance5 credits for 0.27 levelsmctsahead of Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance by 0 per cent
- BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills5 credits for 0.60 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling5 credits for 0.58 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance5 credits for 0.62 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildDigital & AI Competence5 credits for 0.52 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Core disaster S07. −29.0 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Strategic Infrastructure Tier 7 to 8; Governance & Integrity Tier 14 to 15; Financial Strength Tier 17 to 20; Production & Innovation Tier 14 to 15; Trade & Investment Tier 12 to 13.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | −1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.38 | 0.00 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | −1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.20 | 0.00 |
| Transport Infrastructure | −1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | 0.00 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | −0.99 | +0.14 | 0.00 | −1.13 | 0.00 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | −0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | 0.00 |
| Social Infrastructure | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | 0.00 |