Round 2030
Round 4 of 20 in simulation 11 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Trade bloc rupture, and the index −0.016 to 6.80.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 6.80 (−0.016)
- In: 6.81
- Rank by index
- 84
- In: 84
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 50
- In: 35
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2.95 | 2.99 | +0.037 | 12 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7.22 | 7.17 | −0.043 | 8 |
| National Security | 4.43 | 4.41 | −0.022 | 9 |
| Human Capital | 7.52 | 7.62 | +0.098 | 12 |
| Information & Influence | 8.15 | 8.08 | −0.064 | 9 |
| Governance & Integrity | 8.52 | 8.49 | −0.037 | 15 |
| Financial Strength | 7.89 | 7.87 | −0.021 | 20 |
| Production & Innovation | 7.09 | 7.10 | +0.017 | 15 |
| Trade & Investment | 7.54 | 7.43 | −0.108 | 13 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2030: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 152, plus 35 carried in. Maintenance 114. Spent 23 on actions (build 9, buy 9, partner 5). 50 carried over.
- PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance5 credits for 0.26 levelsmctsahead of Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance by 0 per cent
- BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills5 credits for 0.54 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyConnectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies5 credits for 0.65 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling5 credits for 0.53 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyTechnology Adoption & Diffusion5 credits for 0.57 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Trade bloc rupture S01. −8.4 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | +0.62 | +0.65 | 0.00 | −0.03 | 0.00 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | +0.51 | +0.57 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | +0.44 | +0.46 | 0.00 | −0.02 | 0.00 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | +0.43 | +0.45 | 0.00 | −0.02 | 0.00 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | +0.20 | +0.26 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 |
| Digital & AI Competence | +0.18 | +0.21 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 |