Simulation 20
South Korea, greedy, 20 years, seed 20: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 20. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 18.14 in 2046; 61 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 20
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 14 (median simulation), 18 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 18.14 (+2.14)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 1
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 1 shock
- 4 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.04 +0.036 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.09 +0.051 | |
| 2029 |
| Outbreak defence succeeds | 16.70 +0.614 |
| 2030 |
| 16.86 +0.160 | |
| 2031 |
| 17.00 +0.135 | |
| 2032 |
| 17.12 +0.125 | |
| 2033 |
| 17.24 +0.116 | |
| 2034 |
| 17.32 +0.081 | |
| 2035 |
| Global funding seizure | 17.19 −0.127 |
| 2036 |
| 17.31 +0.115 | |
| 2037 |
| 17.46 +0.151 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.58 +0.125 | |
| 2039 |
| Chronic disease advance | 17.72 +0.134 |
| 2040 | No actions | 17.80 +0.085 | |
| 2041 | No actions | 17.86 +0.057 | |
| 2042 | No actions | Market access opening | 17.97 +0.109 |
| 2043 | No actions | 18.06 +0.095 | |
| 2044 | No actions | 18.07 +0.010 | |
| 2045 | No actions | 18.00 −0.073 | |
| 2046 | No actions | Automated discovery step | 18.14 +0.141 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.048 | −140.4 | −5.20 |
| No shocks | +0.209 | +14.7 | +0.20 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.007 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.005 | −0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.010 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.009 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.118 | +8.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.095 | +7.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.184 | +14.0 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 20.00 | +5.00 | +3.70 | −0.11 | +1.21 | +0.22 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 20.00 | +5.00 | +3.77 | −0.11 | +1.20 | +0.62 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +7.20 | −0.17 | +1.54 | +0.19 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 19.51 | +4.18 | +3.42 | −0.38 | +0.83 | +0.31 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.62 | +4.12 | +3.42 | −0.41 | +0.78 | +0.34 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +6.44 | −0.18 | +1.27 | +0.13 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.97 | +3.97 | +2.26 | −0.21 | +1.45 | +0.47 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.94 | +3.94 | +2.65 | −0.12 | +1.25 | +0.16 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.42 | +3.92 | +3.30 | −0.38 | +0.78 | +0.21 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 18.89 | +3.89 | +3.17 | −0.35 | +0.61 | +0.46 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 15.58 | +3.83 | +2.85 | −0.24 | +1.03 | +0.18 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 19.14 | +3.81 | +2.47 | −0.10 | +1.20 | +0.25 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 19.73 | +3.73 | +2.38 | −0.11 | +1.20 | +0.26 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.88 | +3.68 | +3.12 | −0.26 | +0.53 | +0.31 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.81 | +3.48 | +1.04 | −0.11 | +2.54 | +0.01 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 19.79 | +3.46 | +2.59 | −0.38 | +0.77 | +0.48 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.65 | +3.15 | +2.44 | −0.36 | +0.90 | +0.18 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.14 | +3.14 | +2.43 | −0.39 | +0.79 | +0.31 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +2.52 | −0.18 | +1.26 | +0.33 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.42 | −0.18 | +1.26 | +0.31 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +1.97 | −0.39 | +1.11 | +0.64 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 18.55 | +2.80 | +2.63 | −0.22 | +0.26 | +0.14 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.79 | +2.79 | +1.72 | −0.62 | +1.27 | +0.43 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.23 | +2.73 | +2.15 | −0.36 | +0.66 | +0.28 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 19.22 | +2.72 | +1.65 | −0.24 | +0.61 | +0.71 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.37 | +2.70 | +1.51 | −0.37 | +1.31 | +0.26 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.70 | +2.70 | +1.15 | −0.18 | +1.25 | +0.48 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 19.82 | +2.62 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +2.19 | +0.54 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.78 | +2.53 | +1.60 | −0.36 | +1.11 | +0.18 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.74 | +2.49 | +1.21 | −0.18 | +1.25 | +0.21 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 18.74 | +2.24 | +1.35 | −0.26 | +0.91 | +0.24 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.23 | +2.23 | +1.40 | −0.37 | +0.84 | +0.36 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 17.97 | +2.22 | +1.45 | −0.33 | +0.89 | +0.21 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.74 | +2.14 | +1.49 | −0.62 | +1.06 | +0.21 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 18.71 | +2.04 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +2.01 | +0.20 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 18.36 | +2.03 | +1.01 | −0.27 | +1.04 | +0.24 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 19.00 | +2.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +1.73 | +0.54 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 18.09 | +1.89 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +2.13 | +0.34 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 18.09 | +1.89 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +1.72 | +0.26 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 19.19 | +1.86 | +1.16 | −0.37 | +0.84 | +0.23 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 18.39 | +1.72 | +0.90 | −0.34 | +0.90 | +0.27 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 19.13 | +1.63 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +1.65 | +0.34 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.48 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +1.11 | +0.73 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 19.82 | +1.42 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +1.05 | +0.66 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 17.08 | +1.41 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +1.20 | +0.31 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.90 | +1.40 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +1.32 | +0.34 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 17.39 | +1.26 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +1.32 | +0.19 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 19.23 | +1.23 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +1.42 | +0.23 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.88 | +1.17 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +1.28 | +0.47 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.62 | +1.12 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +1.28 | +0.41 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 15.35 | +1.10 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +1.06 | +0.54 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.03 | +1.03 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.90 | +0.48 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.81 | +1.01 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +1.04 | +0.22 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 16.69 | +0.94 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +1.04 | +0.13 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 17.71 | +0.91 | 0.00 | −0.35 | +0.79 | +0.47 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 18.39 | +0.89 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +1.28 | +0.20 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.48 | +0.88 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +1.07 | +0.37 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 15.44 | +0.77 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +1.06 | +0.20 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 16.51 | +0.71 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +1.06 | +0.17 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 16.01 | +0.51 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.79 | +0.04 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 2.13 | +0.46 | 0.00 | −0.01 | +0.47 | 0.00 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 14.02 | +0.35 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.47 | +0.25 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 17.02 | +0.35 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.27 | +0.30 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 17.07 | +0.32 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.47 | +0.30 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 17.31 | +0.31 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.27 | +0.25 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 16.58 | +0.25 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.26 | +0.19 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 16.24 | +0.24 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.47 | +0.20 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.56 | +0.23 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.47 | +0.19 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 16.06 | +0.23 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.47 | +0.18 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 15.55 | +0.22 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.47 | +0.16 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 16.20 | +0.20 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.47 | +0.15 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 16.19 | +0.19 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.47 | +0.14 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.66 | +0.16 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.47 | +0.12 |
Seed 20 of experiment mcts-m2b.m2b-kor-greedy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.