Simulation 18
South Korea, greedy, 20 years, seed 18: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 20. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 16.91 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 6 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 18
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 14 (median simulation), 20 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 16.91 (+0.91)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 6
- From 2
- Events
- 6 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.04 +0.036 | |
| 2028 |
| Middle East settlement | 16.14 +0.102 |
| 2029 |
| 16.28 +0.140 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.49 +0.212 | |
| 2031 |
| Hybrid coercion | 16.30 −0.189 |
| 2032 |
| 16.45 +0.151 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.61 +0.152 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.75 +0.139 | |
| 2035 |
| Legitimacy ruptureBreadbasket failure | 16.59 −0.151 |
| 2036 |
| 16.66 +0.069 | |
| 2037 |
| Cryptographic trust break | 16.43 −0.232 |
| 2038 |
| 16.57 +0.137 | |
| 2039 |
| 16.70 +0.136 | |
| 2040 |
| Regional war spillover | 16.41 −0.297 |
| 2041 |
| Hybrid coercion | 16.34 −0.074 |
| 2042 |
| 16.42 +0.087 | |
| 2043 |
| 16.53 +0.112 | |
| 2044 |
| 16.62 +0.089 | |
| 2045 |
| 16.76 +0.139 | |
| 2046 |
| 16.91 +0.149 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.048 | −140.4 | −5.20 |
| No shocks | +0.209 | +14.7 | +0.20 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.007 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.005 | −0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.010 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.009 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.118 | +8.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.095 | +7.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.184 | +14.0 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 19.96 | +4.46 | +7.18 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.18 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.75 | +4.25 | +5.44 | 0.00 | −1.40 | +0.21 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.80 | +3.80 | +6.42 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.02 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.83 | +3.63 | +4.60 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.17 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.67 | +3.34 | +5.12 | 0.00 | −1.95 | +0.17 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.26 | +3.26 | +5.11 | 0.00 | −2.01 | +0.16 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 17.72 | +3.22 | +4.90 | 0.00 | −1.86 | +0.17 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 18.47 | +3.14 | +3.84 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.10 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.96 | +2.96 | +3.42 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.21 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.62 | +2.62 | +2.52 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.24 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.61 | +2.61 | +2.86 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.01 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.05 | +2.38 | +5.11 | 0.00 | −2.77 | +0.03 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.34 | +2.34 | +2.26 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.28 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.29 | +2.29 | +3.29 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +0.34 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 17.24 | +2.24 | +3.10 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.21 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.23 | +2.23 | +3.40 | 0.00 | −1.14 | −0.02 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.39 | +2.14 | +2.28 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.01 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 17.03 | +2.03 | +2.59 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.16 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 18.19 | +1.99 | +2.75 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.33 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 19.12 | +1.92 | +3.06 | 0.00 | −1.37 | +0.23 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 17.71 | +1.91 | +3.01 | 0.00 | −1.10 | 0.00 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 18.24 | +1.91 | +3.21 | 0.00 | −1.44 | +0.14 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 17.89 | +1.89 | +2.53 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.14 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 16.89 | +1.89 | +2.56 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.10 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 18.17 | +1.84 | +2.52 | 0.00 | −0.68 | 0.00 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 17.57 | +1.82 | +2.89 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.03 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 18.26 | +1.76 | +3.26 | 0.00 | −1.78 | +0.28 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 17.99 | +1.74 | +3.25 | 0.00 | −1.59 | +0.08 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.71 | +1.71 | +2.91 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +0.13 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.49 | +1.69 | +2.91 | 0.00 | −1.43 | +0.21 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.18 | +1.58 | +3.39 | 0.00 | −1.89 | +0.08 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.07 | +1.57 | +2.48 | 0.00 | −1.00 | +0.09 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.78 | +1.45 | +2.67 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.10 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 17.95 | +1.45 | +2.77 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.24 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 13.12 | +1.37 | +3.01 | 0.00 | −1.75 | +0.11 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.26 | +1.26 | +1.32 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.17 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 17.37 | +1.04 | +2.23 | 0.00 | −1.27 | +0.09 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.78 | +0.78 | +1.44 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.40 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.22 | +0.72 | +2.89 | 0.00 | −1.99 | −0.18 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.37 | +0.66 | +1.46 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.28 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.18 | +0.58 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.26 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 17.24 | +0.57 | +1.49 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.16 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.01 | +0.51 | +1.50 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.10 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 16.22 | +0.47 | +1.39 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.13 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.33 | +0.33 | +2.31 | 0.00 | −2.10 | +0.13 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 14.90 | +0.23 | +1.27 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.09 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 15.59 | +0.09 | +1.51 | 0.00 | −1.45 | +0.03 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 16.53 | +0.03 | +1.63 | 0.00 | −1.41 | −0.20 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 16.52 | −0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.03 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.44 | −0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | −0.03 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 17.35 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.41 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 13.41 | −0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.29 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 14.80 | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.18 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 16.12 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.25 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 16.06 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.08 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 15.18 | −0.95 | +1.28 | 0.00 | −2.29 | +0.06 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 16.52 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.09 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 14.97 | −1.03 | +1.56 | 0.00 | −2.81 | +0.22 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 17.31 | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.23 | +0.14 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 15.08 | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.29 | +0.04 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 15.54 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.36 | +0.11 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 14.87 | −1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | 0.00 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 15.11 | −1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.51 | +0.12 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 15.25 | −1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.44 | +0.01 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.22 | −1.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | −0.14 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 14.71 | −1.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.79 | +0.17 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 15.12 | −1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.63 | 0.00 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 14.68 | −1.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | −0.19 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 11.84 | −1.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.73 | −0.10 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 13.16 | −2.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.16 | −0.01 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 13.75 | −2.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.13 | −0.12 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 13.43 | −2.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.62 | +0.23 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 13.04 | −2.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.87 | −0.10 |
Seed 18 of experiment mcts-m2b.m2b-kor-greedy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.