Simulation 14
South Korea, greedy, 20 years, seed 14: median simulation of the experiment's 20. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.50 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 3 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 14
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 18 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 20 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.50 (+1.50)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 6
- From 2
- Events
- 3 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.04 +0.036 | |
| 2028 |
| Hybrid coercion | 15.77 −0.264 |
| 2029 |
| 15.87 +0.090 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.04 +0.176 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.17 +0.128 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.31 +0.143 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.46 +0.145 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.57 +0.115 | |
| 2035 |
| 16.68 +0.110 | |
| 2036 |
| 16.75 +0.067 | |
| 2037 |
| Regional war spillover | 16.55 −0.198 |
| 2038 |
| 16.66 +0.108 | |
| 2039 |
| Global funding seizure | 16.63 −0.029 |
| 2040 |
| 16.78 +0.154 | |
| 2041 |
| 16.92 +0.140 | |
| 2042 |
| 17.02 +0.096 | |
| 2043 |
| 17.13 +0.106 | |
| 2044 |
| 17.23 +0.103 | |
| 2045 |
| 17.37 +0.140 | |
| 2046 |
| 17.50 +0.132 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.048 | −140.4 | −5.20 |
| No shocks | +0.209 | +14.7 | +0.20 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.007 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.005 | −0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.010 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.009 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.118 | +8.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.095 | +7.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.184 | +14.0 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.55 | +5.05 | +5.55 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.23 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 19.93 | +4.43 | +7.20 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.07 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 18.30 | +4.10 | +4.40 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.25 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.56 | +4.06 | +4.64 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.17 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.91 | +3.91 | +6.43 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.04 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.82 | +3.82 | +4.90 | 0.00 | −1.21 | +0.21 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 15.45 | +3.70 | +4.67 | 0.00 | −1.16 | +0.20 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.70 | +3.70 | +3.96 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.24 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.62 | +3.29 | +3.73 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.04 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.42 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.27 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.81 | +2.81 | +3.22 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.08 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.12 | +2.79 | +3.71 | 0.00 | −1.27 | +0.35 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.69 | +2.69 | +2.86 | 0.00 | −0.16 | 0.00 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.62 | +2.62 | +2.26 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.54 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.55 | +2.55 | +2.52 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.17 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 19.03 | +2.53 | +3.15 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.41 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 17.51 | +2.51 | +3.22 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.22 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.69 | +2.44 | +3.23 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.09 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 18.24 | +2.44 | +2.80 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.11 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 18.13 | +2.38 | +3.03 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.08 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 18.87 | +2.37 | +3.22 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.03 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 18.69 | +2.36 | +3.28 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.20 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.96 | +2.36 | +3.02 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.04 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 18.10 | +2.35 | +2.80 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.26 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 18.53 | +2.33 | +2.50 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.30 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 17.97 | +2.30 | +3.43 | 0.00 | −1.22 | +0.09 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 18.93 | +2.26 | +2.86 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.12 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 17.20 | +2.20 | +2.61 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.06 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 17.49 | +2.16 | +2.61 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.04 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 18.10 | +2.10 | +2.41 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.17 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 16.76 | +2.09 | +2.41 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.16 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.03 | +2.03 | +2.76 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.14 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.86 | +1.86 | +2.12 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.60 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.27 | +1.77 | +2.53 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.10 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.25 | +1.75 | +2.57 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.10 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 17.94 | +1.61 | +2.24 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.18 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 18.78 | +1.58 | +2.21 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.28 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.82 | +1.32 | +2.60 | 0.00 | −1.22 | −0.07 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.30 | +1.30 | +1.37 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.09 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.97 | +1.26 | +1.39 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.34 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.72 | +1.22 | +1.45 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.24 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.02 | +1.22 | +1.60 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.35 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 18.37 | +1.12 | +1.20 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.08 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.71 | +1.11 | +1.45 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.27 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 17.70 | +1.03 | +1.09 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.17 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 17.10 | +0.97 | +2.38 | 0.00 | −1.54 | +0.14 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.91 | +0.91 | +1.35 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.27 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 16.29 | +0.79 | +1.46 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.06 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 17.07 | +0.74 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.13 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.07 | +0.74 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.12 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 16.41 | +0.74 | +1.27 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.20 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.13 | +0.13 | +1.19 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.17 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.37 | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.61 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 17.99 | −0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.69 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.48 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.02 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 16.71 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.52 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.11 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.07 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 17.94 | −0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.33 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 16.30 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.32 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 16.42 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.11 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 16.09 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.11 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 15.67 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.14 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.01 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.05 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 15.46 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.14 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 12.88 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.04 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 15.68 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.28 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 15.62 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.09 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.85 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.08 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 14.27 | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.07 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 14.94 | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.28 | +0.23 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 14.92 | −1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.03 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 14.72 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.29 | +0.17 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 14.37 | −1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.60 | −0.03 |
Seed 14 of experiment mcts-m2b.m2b-kor-greedy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.