Round 2030
Round 4 of 20 in simulation 4 of South Korea, tree search, 20 years: 0 actions, AI labour shock and Market access opening, and the index +0.060 to 16.20.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 16.20 (+0.060)
- In: 16.14
- Rank by index
- 6
- In: 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 3
- In: 2
- Credits carried
- 1,014
- In: 676
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 16.08 | 16.03 | −0.056 | 2 → 3 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 16.32 | 16.37 | +0.057 | 2 |
| National Security | 14.41 | 14.41 | 0.000 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 17.39 | 17.69 | +0.296 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 15.70 | 15.83 | +0.135 | 2 |
| Governance & Integrity | 15.84 | 15.88 | +0.041 | 4 → 3 |
| Financial Strength | 16.07 | 16.01 | −0.066 | 5 |
| Production & Innovation | 16.63 | 16.61 | −0.019 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 16.82 | 16.97 | +0.151 | 2 → 1 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2030: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 1,014, plus 676 carried in. Maintenance 677. Nothing spent on actions. 1,014 carried over.
- Shock: AI labour shock S08. −16.5 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
- Upside event: Market access opening S12. +15.3 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure and readiness, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 2 to 3; Governance & Integrity Tier 4 to 3; Trade & Investment Tier 2 to 1.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | +1.17 | +1.22 | 0.00 | −0.05 | 0.00 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | +1.10 | +0.99 | 0.00 | +0.11 | 0.00 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | +1.04 | +0.98 | 0.00 | +0.06 | 0.00 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | +0.87 | +0.90 | 0.00 | −0.03 | 0.00 |
| Digital & AI Competence | +0.34 | +0.36 | 0.00 | −0.03 | 0.00 |
| Advanced Education | +0.23 | +0.27 | 0.00 | −0.03 | 0.00 |