Simulation 4
South Korea, tree search, 20 years, seed 4: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 10. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 18.05 in 2046; 70 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 4
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 6 (median simulation), 1 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 18.05 (+2.05)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 1
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 1 shock
- 3 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.04 +0.036 | |
| 2028 | No actions | 16.06 +0.020 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.14 +0.081 | |
| 2030 | No actions | AI labour shockMarket access opening | 16.20 +0.060 |
| 2031 |
| 16.30 +0.095 | |
| 2032 |
| Chronic disease advance | 16.41 +0.118 |
| 2033 | No actions | 16.52 +0.104 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.66 +0.147 | |
| 2035 |
| 16.88 +0.216 | |
| 2036 |
| 17.02 +0.145 | |
| 2037 |
| 17.10 +0.078 | |
| 2038 | No actions | 17.16 +0.057 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.24 +0.079 | |
| 2040 |
| 17.33 +0.096 | |
| 2041 |
| 17.43 +0.093 | |
| 2042 |
| 17.55 +0.121 | |
| 2043 | No actions | 17.63 +0.083 | |
| 2044 | No actions | 17.69 +0.055 | |
| 2045 |
| 17.77 +0.078 | |
| 2046 |
| Automated discovery step | 18.05 +0.288 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.170 | −150.3 | −6.67 |
| No shocks | +0.576 | +42.2 | +0.33 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.012 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.021 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.023 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.3 | −0.33 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.275 | +19.6 | +0.33 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.280 | +20.6 | +0.50 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.189 | +14.5 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 20.00 | +5.50 | +5.44 | 0.00 | +0.09 | +0.35 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 19.87 | +4.54 | +3.82 | 0.00 | +0.60 | +0.12 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +4.96 | 0.00 | +0.83 | +0.20 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 19.45 | +4.45 | +3.65 | 0.00 | +0.60 | +0.20 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 19.61 | +4.28 | +3.69 | 0.00 | +0.28 | +0.32 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +4.50 | 0.00 | +0.41 | +0.05 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.89 | +3.69 | +3.23 | 0.00 | +0.22 | +0.24 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.66 | +3.66 | +2.92 | 0.00 | +0.56 | +0.18 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.15 | +3.65 | +3.26 | 0.00 | +0.09 | +0.31 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 19.55 | +3.55 | +2.99 | 0.00 | +0.29 | +0.26 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 18.48 | +3.48 | +3.07 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.35 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 15.18 | +3.43 | +2.85 | 0.00 | +0.47 | +0.11 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.41 | +3.41 | +2.69 | 0.00 | +0.60 | +0.12 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.36 | +3.36 | +2.26 | 0.00 | +0.76 | +0.34 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.63 | +3.30 | +2.07 | 0.00 | +1.21 | +0.02 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 19.09 | +3.09 | +2.49 | 0.00 | +0.46 | +0.14 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.75 | +3.08 | +3.09 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.17 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.52 | +3.02 | +2.54 | 0.00 | +0.33 | +0.14 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +1.97 | 0.00 | +0.53 | +0.61 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 18.76 | +2.96 | +2.52 | 0.00 | +0.35 | +0.09 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.38 | +2.88 | +2.37 | 0.00 | +0.33 | +0.18 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 18.84 | +2.84 | +2.43 | 0.00 | +0.09 | +0.32 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 17.45 | +2.78 | +2.24 | 0.00 | +0.34 | +0.20 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 20.00 | +2.75 | +2.17 | 0.00 | +0.56 | +0.17 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 18.66 | +2.46 | +1.27 | 0.00 | +0.84 | +0.35 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.46 | +2.46 | +1.82 | 0.00 | +0.40 | +0.23 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 18.75 | +2.42 | +1.56 | 0.00 | +0.53 | +0.33 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 18.84 | +2.34 | +1.73 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.37 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.88 | +2.28 | +1.81 | 0.00 | +0.35 | +0.12 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.51 | +2.26 | +1.93 | 0.00 | +0.20 | +0.13 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.24 | +2.24 | +1.30 | 0.00 | +0.56 | +0.38 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.18 | +2.18 | +1.59 | 0.00 | +0.28 | +0.31 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 18.64 | +2.14 | +1.28 | 0.00 | +0.56 | +0.29 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 18.60 | +2.10 | +1.55 | 0.00 | +0.47 | +0.08 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.04 | +2.04 | +1.32 | 0.00 | +0.40 | +0.32 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 17.76 | +2.01 | +1.49 | 0.00 | +0.33 | +0.19 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 18.71 | +2.00 | +1.23 | 0.00 | +0.56 | +0.20 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.52 | +1.92 | +1.22 | 0.00 | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 18.57 | +1.90 | +1.32 | 0.00 | +0.33 | +0.25 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 18.11 | +1.78 | +1.04 | 0.00 | +0.47 | +0.27 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 19.10 | +1.77 | +1.36 | 0.00 | +0.28 | +0.13 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.51 | +1.71 | +1.43 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.18 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 17.43 | +1.68 | +1.33 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.12 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.32 | +1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.55 | +0.77 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 18.44 | +1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +1.00 | +0.24 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 2.85 | +1.18 | +0.98 | 0.00 | +0.21 | −0.01 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.18 | +1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.61 | +0.57 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 19.51 | +1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.48 | +0.64 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 17.78 | +1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.84 | +0.27 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.97 | +0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.83 | +0.15 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.44 | +0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.72 | +0.21 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 15.19 | +0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.34 | +0.60 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 17.01 | +0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.72 | +0.16 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 16.52 | +0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.60 | +0.25 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 17.00 | +0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.60 | +0.19 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.59 | +0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.47 | +0.32 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 18.24 | +0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.57 | +0.17 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.23 | +0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.53 | +0.19 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.65 | +0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.34 | +0.31 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 16.31 | +0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.47 | +0.09 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 16.45 | +0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.24 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 16.26 | +0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.22 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 17.17 | +0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.21 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 16.74 | +0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.18 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 17.41 | +0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.17 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 17.07 | +0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.16 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.69 | +0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.15 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 15.69 | +0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.15 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 14.01 | +0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.13 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 16.28 | +0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.07 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 16.28 | +0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.07 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.77 | +0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.06 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 15.61 | +0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.09 | +0.02 |
Seed 4 of experiment mcts-m3.m3-kor-mcts-tier1. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.