Simulation 115
South Korea, greedy, 20 years, seed 115: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 20. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 18.12 in 2046; 80 actions over 20 rounds and 0 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 115
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 119 (median simulation), 103 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 18.12 (+2.12)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 1
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 0 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.04 +0.036 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.09 +0.051 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.18 +0.089 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.35 +0.170 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.47 +0.118 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.62 +0.151 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.73 +0.115 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.85 +0.120 | |
| 2035 |
| 16.93 +0.079 | |
| 2036 |
| 17.02 +0.090 | |
| 2037 |
| 17.12 +0.095 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.22 +0.102 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.34 +0.118 | |
| 2040 |
| Clean power threshold | 17.60 +0.264 |
| 2041 |
| 17.82 +0.214 | |
| 2042 |
| 18.06 +0.243 | |
| 2043 | No actions | 18.22 +0.160 | |
| 2044 | No actions | 18.28 +0.064 | |
| 2045 | No actions | 18.19 −0.087 | |
| 2046 | No actions | 18.12 −0.073 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.282 | −157.1 | −5.33 |
| No shocks | +0.209 | +16.1 | +0.67 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.016 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.020 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.016 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.014 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.009 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | −0.027 | −1.9 | +0.33 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.037 | +3.3 | +0.50 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.113 | +7.5 | +0.50 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 19.71 | +4.71 | +3.76 | −0.11 | +0.64 | +0.42 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 20.00 | +4.67 | +4.96 | −0.12 | +0.64 | +0.23 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 16.17 | +4.42 | +3.06 | −0.24 | +1.29 | +0.31 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 19.92 | +4.42 | +7.20 | −0.18 | +0.64 | +0.17 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 19.60 | +4.27 | +3.63 | −0.41 | +0.64 | +0.40 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +3.71 | −0.12 | +0.64 | +0.29 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.49 | +3.99 | +3.67 | −0.43 | +0.32 | +0.43 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.91 | +3.91 | +6.44 | −0.18 | +0.32 | +0.07 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 18.78 | +3.78 | +3.20 | −0.36 | +0.64 | +0.30 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.95 | +3.75 | +3.16 | −0.28 | +0.64 | +0.22 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.69 | +3.69 | +4.26 | −0.43 | +0.32 | +0.47 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.10 | +3.60 | +3.39 | −0.39 | +0.32 | +0.28 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.93 | +3.60 | +3.59 | −0.12 | +1.29 | +0.01 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 19.34 | +3.59 | +2.98 | −0.38 | +0.64 | +0.34 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 19.81 | +3.48 | +3.11 | −0.41 | +0.64 | +0.37 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 19.15 | +3.40 | +2.74 | −0.24 | +0.64 | +0.25 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.81 | +3.31 | +2.65 | −0.39 | +1.29 | +0.15 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.24 | +3.24 | +2.53 | −0.10 | +0.64 | +0.17 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.23 | +3.23 | +2.83 | −0.12 | +0.32 | +0.20 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.53 | +3.03 | +2.47 | −0.38 | +0.64 | +0.30 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.94 | +2.94 | +2.52 | −0.19 | +0.32 | +0.44 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.60 | +2.93 | +2.90 | −0.40 | +0.32 | +0.11 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.93 | +2.93 | +3.42 | −0.19 | +0.32 | +0.40 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.89 | +2.89 | +2.26 | −0.21 | +0.32 | +0.52 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 18.38 | +2.88 | +2.90 | −0.37 | +0.32 | +0.03 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 19.32 | +2.82 | +1.75 | −0.26 | +0.64 | +0.69 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.77 | +2.77 | +1.97 | −0.41 | +0.64 | +0.71 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 17.34 | +2.67 | +2.40 | −0.60 | +0.64 | +0.23 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.89 | +2.64 | +2.29 | −0.19 | +0.32 | +0.22 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 19.28 | +2.61 | +2.15 | −0.18 | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 19.78 | +2.58 | +0.98 | −0.11 | +1.29 | +0.43 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 18.75 | +2.25 | +1.56 | −0.28 | +0.64 | +0.32 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.24 | +2.24 | +1.87 | −0.65 | +0.64 | +0.38 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.47 | +2.22 | +1.80 | −0.38 | +0.64 | +0.15 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.12 | +2.12 | +1.47 | −0.39 | +0.64 | +0.39 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 18.29 | +1.96 | +1.30 | −0.23 | +0.64 | +0.25 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 17.69 | +1.89 | +1.57 | −0.63 | +0.64 | +0.30 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 18.53 | +1.86 | +1.36 | −0.37 | +0.64 | +0.22 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 19.16 | +1.83 | +1.33 | −0.39 | +0.64 | +0.25 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.43 | +1.83 | +1.73 | −0.66 | +0.64 | +0.11 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.83 | +1.83 | +1.33 | −0.18 | +0.32 | +0.36 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 18.08 | +1.75 | +1.12 | −0.28 | +0.64 | +0.26 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.54 | +1.74 | +1.37 | −0.39 | +0.32 | +0.44 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 19.20 | +1.70 | +1.28 | −0.39 | +0.64 | +0.18 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.37 | +1.37 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +1.29 | +0.47 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 17.44 | +1.31 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +1.29 | +0.28 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 18.21 | +1.21 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +1.29 | +0.16 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.12 | +1.12 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.64 | +0.86 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.01 | +1.01 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.64 | +0.64 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.61 | +1.01 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +1.29 | +0.32 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 19.38 | +0.98 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.64 | +0.63 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 16.52 | +0.85 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.64 | +0.31 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 16.91 | +0.71 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.64 | +0.17 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.43 | +0.63 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.64 | +0.25 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 17.27 | +0.60 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.64 | +0.18 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.08 | +0.58 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.64 | +0.19 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.80 | +0.55 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.64 | +0.41 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 16.73 | +0.53 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.64 | +0.46 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 16.22 | +0.47 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.64 | +0.07 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.37 | +0.37 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.64 | +0.16 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 16.84 | +0.34 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.64 | +0.27 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.00 | +0.29 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.64 | +0.23 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.71 | +0.21 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.64 | +0.17 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 13.75 | +0.08 | 0.00 | −0.37 | 0.00 | +0.46 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.65 | −0.02 | 0.00 | −0.01 | 0.00 | −0.01 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 15.90 | −0.10 | 0.00 | −0.44 | 0.00 | +0.34 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.22 | −0.11 | 0.00 | −0.45 | 0.00 | +0.34 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.54 | −0.21 | 0.00 | −0.46 | 0.00 | +0.25 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.61 | −0.22 | 0.00 | −0.43 | 0.00 | +0.21 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 15.75 | −0.25 | 0.00 | −0.43 | 0.00 | +0.19 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 15.01 | −0.32 | 0.00 | −0.42 | 0.00 | +0.10 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 15.65 | −0.35 | 0.00 | −0.43 | 0.00 | +0.09 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.14 | −0.36 | 0.00 | −0.45 | 0.00 | +0.09 |
Seed 115 of experiment mcts-m6.m6-kor-greedy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.