Simulation 103
South Korea, greedy, 20 years, seed 103: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 20. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.35 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 3 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 103
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 119 (median simulation), 115 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.35 (+1.35)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 6
- From 2
- Events
- 3 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.04 +0.036 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.09 +0.051 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.18 +0.089 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.35 +0.170 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.47 +0.118 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.62 +0.151 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.73 +0.116 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.85 +0.120 | |
| 2035 |
| 16.93 +0.080 | |
| 2036 |
| Breadbasket failure | 16.85 −0.083 |
| 2037 |
| 16.94 +0.093 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.04 +0.097 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.18 +0.140 | |
| 2040 |
| Regional war spillover | 16.90 −0.282 |
| 2041 |
| 17.04 +0.136 | |
| 2042 |
| 17.14 +0.106 | |
| 2043 |
| 17.21 +0.075 | |
| 2044 |
| 17.32 +0.104 | |
| 2045 |
| 17.45 +0.135 | |
| 2046 |
| Hybrid coercion | 17.35 −0.103 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.282 | −157.1 | −5.33 |
| No shocks | +0.209 | +16.1 | +0.67 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.016 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.020 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.016 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.014 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.009 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | −0.027 | −1.9 | +0.33 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.037 | +3.3 | +0.50 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.113 | +7.5 | +0.50 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 19.95 | +4.45 | +7.20 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.17 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.60 | +4.10 | +4.69 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.24 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 18.17 | +3.97 | +4.46 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.24 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.82 | +3.82 | +6.44 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.05 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.24 | +3.74 | +4.54 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.19 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 19.55 | +3.55 | +3.72 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.27 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 18.88 | +3.55 | +3.80 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.19 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 15.16 | +3.41 | +4.50 | 0.00 | −1.30 | +0.21 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.27 | +3.27 | +3.57 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.14 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.52 | +3.19 | +3.61 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.01 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.94 | +2.94 | +3.42 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.21 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 18.94 | +2.94 | +4.26 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.17 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 19.42 | +2.92 | +3.92 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +0.33 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.89 | +2.89 | +2.89 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.28 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 17.76 | +2.76 | +3.17 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.34 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.67 | +2.67 | +3.05 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.12 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.56 | +2.56 | +2.52 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.28 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.46 | +2.46 | +2.83 | 0.00 | −0.37 | 0.00 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 17.77 | +2.44 | +3.63 | 0.00 | −1.57 | +0.38 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 18.75 | +2.42 | +3.11 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.29 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 17.41 | +2.41 | +2.61 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.26 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 18.20 | +2.40 | +2.74 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.15 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.54 | +2.29 | +3.15 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.12 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.78 | +2.18 | +2.71 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.12 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.40 | +2.15 | +2.29 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.11 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 17.89 | +2.14 | +2.65 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.16 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 17.85 | +2.10 | +2.77 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.13 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 17.74 | +2.07 | +3.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.18 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 16.68 | +2.01 | +2.36 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.14 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 18.32 | +1.99 | +2.59 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.24 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.45 | +1.95 | +2.47 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.21 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.43 | +1.93 | +2.71 | 0.00 | −0.76 | −0.03 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.67 | +1.67 | +1.97 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.67 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 17.64 | +1.31 | +2.16 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.09 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.77 | +1.27 | +1.41 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.33 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.44 | +1.24 | +1.44 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.28 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.85 | +1.14 | +1.37 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.24 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.10 | +1.10 | +1.33 | 0.00 | −0.37 | +0.15 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 17.81 | +1.01 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.29 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 17.67 | +1.00 | +1.10 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.17 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.48 | +0.88 | +1.44 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.22 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.37 | +0.87 | +2.67 | 0.00 | −1.71 | −0.08 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.82 | +0.82 | +1.33 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.28 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 17.76 | +0.76 | +1.47 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.25 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 16.22 | +0.72 | +1.43 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.04 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.21 | +0.71 | +1.56 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.02 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 17.37 | +0.70 | +1.41 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.07 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.72 | +0.59 | +2.32 | 0.00 | −1.86 | +0.13 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 17.81 | +0.48 | +1.33 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.10 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 17.57 | +0.37 | +0.98 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.31 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.04 | +0.04 | +1.03 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.19 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.07 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.31 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 17.82 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.61 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.47 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.16 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.12 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 17.98 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | +0.47 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 15.18 | −0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.27 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 16.49 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.13 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 16.15 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.13 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 16.47 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.38 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 15.70 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.28 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.03 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.18 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 15.42 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | +0.11 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 12.84 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.12 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 15.92 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.20 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 15.58 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.02 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 15.04 | −0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | +0.30 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 14.84 | −0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.27 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 15.43 | −1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.28 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.56 | −1.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | −0.10 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 14.01 | −1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.41 | +0.10 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 14.67 | −1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.40 | +0.07 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 14.32 | −1.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.74 | +0.06 |
Seed 103 of experiment mcts-m6.m6-kor-greedy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.