Simulation 119
South Korea, greedy, 20 years, seed 119: median simulation of the experiment's 20. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.60 in 2046; 82 actions over 20 rounds and 3 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 119
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 103 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 115 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.60 (+1.60)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 3 shocks
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.04 +0.036 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.09 +0.051 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.18 +0.089 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.35 +0.170 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.47 +0.119 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.62 +0.151 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.73 +0.116 | |
| 2034 |
| Breadbasket failureChronic disease advance | 16.71 −0.022 |
| 2035 |
| Automated discovery step | 16.97 +0.252 |
| 2036 |
| 17.22 +0.255 | |
| 2037 |
| Severe pandemic | 17.12 −0.099 |
| 2038 |
| 17.29 +0.173 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.47 +0.180 | |
| 2040 |
| 17.61 +0.139 | |
| 2041 |
| 17.73 +0.122 | |
| 2042 |
| AI labour shock | 17.77 +0.033 |
| 2043 | No actions | 17.65 −0.115 | |
| 2044 | No actions | 17.53 −0.122 | |
| 2045 |
| 17.56 +0.030 | |
| 2046 |
| 17.60 +0.044 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.282 | −157.1 | −5.33 |
| No shocks | +0.209 | +16.1 | +0.67 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.016 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.020 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.016 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.014 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.009 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | −0.027 | −1.9 | +0.33 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.037 | +3.3 | +0.50 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.113 | +7.5 | +0.50 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 19.73 | +4.40 | +4.08 | −0.05 | +0.25 | +0.12 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 19.84 | +4.34 | +7.20 | −0.08 | +0.21 | +0.13 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.32 | +3.82 | +4.60 | −0.18 | −0.82 | +0.22 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.65 | +3.65 | +6.44 | −0.08 | +0.04 | +0.07 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.46 | +3.46 | +4.26 | −0.19 | −0.59 | +0.55 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 15.10 | +3.35 | +3.27 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.17 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.34 | +3.34 | +2.67 | −0.05 | +0.25 | +0.47 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 19.76 | +3.26 | +3.07 | −0.13 | +0.04 | +0.28 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.56 | +3.23 | +2.43 | −0.05 | +0.82 | +0.03 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.20 | +3.20 | +2.26 | −0.10 | +0.45 | +0.59 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.50 | +3.17 | +3.63 | −0.18 | −0.57 | +0.29 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 17.61 | +3.11 | +3.67 | −0.19 | −0.66 | +0.30 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.00 | +3.00 | +2.53 | −0.05 | +0.26 | +0.26 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 18.97 | +2.97 | +2.63 | −0.05 | +0.12 | +0.26 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.07 | +2.87 | +3.24 | −0.12 | −0.49 | +0.24 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 18.53 | +2.78 | +3.00 | −0.16 | −0.34 | +0.28 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 17.75 | +2.75 | +3.49 | −0.16 | −0.99 | +0.41 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 19.03 | +2.70 | +3.11 | −0.18 | −0.55 | +0.32 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.68 | +2.68 | +2.52 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.27 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.67 | +2.67 | +2.84 | −0.06 | −0.24 | +0.12 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.66 | +2.66 | +3.42 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.38 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 18.33 | +2.58 | +2.83 | −0.11 | −0.38 | +0.24 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.94 | +2.44 | +2.85 | −0.17 | −0.32 | +0.07 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.53 | +2.28 | +2.29 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.14 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.76 | +2.26 | +2.47 | −0.17 | −0.27 | +0.23 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.48 | +2.23 | +3.12 | −0.16 | −0.91 | +0.18 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 18.90 | +2.23 | +2.59 | −0.17 | −0.33 | +0.13 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 17.76 | +2.09 | +3.37 | −0.17 | −1.31 | +0.20 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 18.40 | +2.07 | +2.02 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.17 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 17.92 | +1.92 | +1.87 | −0.29 | −0.06 | +0.40 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.80 | +1.80 | +1.97 | −0.17 | −0.53 | +0.54 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.63 | +1.63 | +1.33 | −0.08 | 0.00 | +0.38 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 18.71 | +1.51 | +0.98 | −0.05 | +0.14 | +0.43 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.09 | +1.49 | +1.73 | −0.29 | −0.11 | +0.16 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 17.90 | +1.40 | +1.97 | −0.11 | −1.03 | +0.56 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 17.96 | +1.29 | +0.99 | −0.08 | +0.16 | +0.21 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 17.08 | +1.28 | +1.48 | −0.27 | −0.09 | +0.17 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.01 | +1.21 | +1.55 | −0.17 | −0.56 | +0.39 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.09 | +1.09 | +1.14 | −0.16 | −0.33 | +0.45 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 15.74 | +1.07 | +1.19 | −0.24 | −0.11 | +0.24 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.07 | +1.07 | +1.47 | −0.17 | −0.53 | +0.30 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 17.90 | +0.90 | +1.14 | −0.10 | −0.39 | +0.26 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 16.28 | +0.78 | +1.46 | −0.15 | −0.56 | +0.03 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.07 | +0.74 | +1.32 | −0.17 | −0.52 | +0.10 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 17.05 | +0.72 | +1.29 | −0.10 | −0.60 | +0.13 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.59 | +0.59 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.57 | +0.22 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.58 | +0.58 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.05 | +0.69 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 16.77 | +0.57 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.22 | +0.61 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 18.85 | +0.45 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.03 | +0.54 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.64 | +0.39 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.11 | +0.73 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 16.03 | +0.36 | 0.00 | −0.04 | +0.13 | +0.27 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 17.83 | +0.33 | +1.52 | −0.17 | −1.21 | +0.19 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.02 | +0.31 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.30 | +0.27 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.97 | +0.30 | 0.00 | −0.01 | +0.31 | 0.00 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.79 | +0.29 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.31 | +0.25 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 17.26 | +0.26 | 0.00 | −0.12 | 0.00 | +0.38 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 16.75 | +0.25 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.30 | +0.22 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.38 | +0.25 | +0.39 | −0.11 | −0.17 | +0.15 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 16.45 | +0.25 | 0.00 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.26 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 13.87 | +0.20 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.06 | +0.31 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.94 | +0.11 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.07 | +0.23 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 16.09 | +0.09 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.07 | +0.21 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 16.58 | +0.08 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.17 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.82 | +0.07 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.08 | +0.20 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 16.07 | +0.07 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.07 | +0.19 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 15.34 | +0.01 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.07 | +0.13 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.08 | +0.13 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 16.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.07 | +0.12 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 16.78 | −0.02 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −0.16 | +0.26 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 16.56 | −0.04 | 0.00 | −0.26 | −0.18 | +0.39 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.27 | −0.06 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.07 | +0.07 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 15.52 | −0.23 | 0.00 | −0.11 | −0.17 | +0.04 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 16.26 | −0.41 | 0.00 | −0.10 | −0.40 | +0.09 |
Seed 119 of experiment mcts-m6.m6-kor-greedy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.