M7 · mcts-m7.m7-kor-greedy

South Korea, greedy, 30 years from 1996

10 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. South Korea decides by the greedy method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Global funding seizure in year 12, Trade bloc rupture in year 23, Severe pandemic in year 24.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–10 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 10 simulations under it.

Capability index: 15.10 (+1.97); From 13.13; 15.09 to 15.11
Rank by index: 10; From 21; 10 to 10
Domains at Tier 1: 2; From 0; 2 to 3
Tier rank: 6; From 22; 5 to 6

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	13.13	15.09	15.10	15.11	higher
Rank by index	21	10	10	10	lower
Tier rank	22	5	6	6	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	2	2	3	higher
Score sum	959.3	1096.0	1097.0	1097.3	higher
Goal-weighted score	959.3	1096.0	1097.0	1097.3	higher
Resilient score	959.3	1096.9 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 23 per cent, buy took 34 per cent, partner took 43 per cent of the 3,067 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch mcts-m7. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 10 simulations, seeds 1 to 10; probes on 3. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

South Korea played 30 rounds from 1996 under the greedy method, with scripted events, 10 times. Its capability index moved from 13.13 to a median of 15.10 (+1.97), with 90 per cent of simulations between 15.08 and 15.11 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 21 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 22. Its base income is 649 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 3,068 credits on actions. The five groups that took most were Space Technologies (partner, 185 credits, 6.0 per cent); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (partner, 157 credits, 5.1 per cent); Investment Attraction & Projection (partner, 119 credits, 3.9 per cent); Economic Output & Productivity (buy, 115 credits, 3.8 per cent); Development Cooperation & Global Assistance (buy, 110 credits, 3.6 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: partner 42 per cent, buy 34 per cent, build 24 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.029, and the most repeated action appeared in 30 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Human Capital; rounds 6 to 10, Human Capital; rounds 11 to 15, Trade & Investment; rounds 16 to 20, Trade & Investment; rounds 21 to 25, Critical Technology; rounds 26 to 30, Critical Technology [experiment_spend_by_period].

The method's chosen action was within 5 per cent of its best alternative in 90 per cent of actions and ahead by more than 25 per cent in 0 per cent [experiment_decision_margins].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 4 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (10 firings in 10 simulations, −23.7 points each); S02 (20 firings in 10 simulations, −15.8 points each); S01 (10 firings in 10 simulations, −12.4 points each) [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Investment Attraction & Projection −2.23; Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −2.22; Labour & Employment −2.11; Monetary & Currency Capability −2.02 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Space Technologies to Space Operations (+1.26 points); Space Technologies to Strategic Strike & Missile Defence (+1.19 points); Space Technologies to Sensing, Timing & Navigation (+1.14 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 10 (5th to 95th percentile 10 to 10), the median count of Tier 1 domains 2 (2 to 3) and the median tier rank 6; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 1,097 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: financial strength (0 to 20 per cent of simulations); human capital (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); information and influence (0 to 20 per cent of simulations); trade and investment (0 to 100 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +0.969 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 0.969 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −3.214: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.017 and −0.014, for example 2026 buy Biotechnology & Health Technologies (22 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.346 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 6 tiers (10 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 7) ends −0.02 from it, with 4 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

No backcast comparison: this experiment does not start from a historical position [experiment_against_history].

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 3 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−3.214	−222.6	−2.67
No shocks	+0.969	+67.8	+0.67
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.014	−1.2	0.00	2026 buy Biotechnology & Health Technologies (22 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.017	−1.2	0.00	2026 buy Energy Technologies (22 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.017	−1.0	0.00	2026 buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power (22 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.015	−1.0	0.00	2026 buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation (22 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.017	−1.2	0.00	2026 buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship (22 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.346	+24.3	+0.33	2020 S10 (-23.6 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.337	+22.8	+0.33	1997 S02 (-19.7 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.205	+14.2	+0.33	2019 S01 (-12.4 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 10 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 10 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	23.0	−12.4
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	6.5	−15.8
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−23.7

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	5.86	14.97 14.90 to 15.00	+9.11	9.85	185
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	9.10	17.38 17.33 to 18.32	+8.28	9.13	126
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	11.61	19.74 19.72 to 19.77	+8.13	9.08	95
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	13.50	19.82 19.78 to 19.86	+6.32	8.45	95
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	11.79	17.97 17.92 to 18.04	+6.18	6.95	103
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	13.83	19.89 19.88 to 19.92	+6.06	7.26	95
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.92	17.95 17.92 to 17.98	+6.03	8.07	119
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	12.15	17.64 17.58 to 17.67	+5.49	7.03	104
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	9.67	14.78 14.71 to 14.85	+5.11	5.77	82
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	13.54	18.15 18.12 to 18.19	+4.61	5.36	85
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	12.25	16.83 16.76 to 16.88	+4.58	5.65	81
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	10.51	14.75 14.66 to 14.84	+4.24	5.40	87
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	12.91	17.12 17.01 to 17.23	+4.21	4.79	83
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	14.00	18.12 17.68 to 18.26	+4.12	3.87	90
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	10.79	14.85 14.81 to 14.88	+4.06	5.23	84
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	10.98	14.89 14.23 to 15.19	+3.91	3.42	57
Advanced Education	Human Capital	15.36	19.27 19.19 to 19.42	+3.91	4.00	77
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	14.13	18.04 17.90 to 18.88	+3.91	5.34	68
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	13.90	17.77 17.75 to 17.81	+3.87	5.55	124
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	14.88	18.63 17.90 to 18.68	+3.75	3.95	51
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	10.07	13.72 13.68 to 13.79	+3.65	4.01	80
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	14.70	18.29 18.18 to 18.34	+3.59	3.96	59
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	14.36	17.92 17.79 to 18.01	+3.56	5.10	157
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	14.64	18.03 18.02 to 18.05	+3.39	5.13	85
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	11.32	14.58 14.52 to 14.76	+3.26	3.89	64
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	12.42	15.47 15.34 to 15.52	+3.05	4.04	64
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.33	14.32 14.12 to 14.57	+2.99	2.98	66
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	10.84	13.33 13.32 to 13.34	+2.49	3.11	62
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	9.42	11.50 11.34 to 11.54	+2.08	3.80	62
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.61	17.45 16.55 to 17.51	+1.84	1.85	39
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	7.03	8.73 7.97 to 9.46	+1.70	2.00	33
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.60	12.26 12.24 to 12.27	+1.66	3.53	63
Foundational Education	Human Capital	15.98	17.40 17.38 to 18.36	+1.42	2.22	44
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	12.32	13.71 13.70 to 13.71	+1.39	2.00	43
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	12.91	14.20 14.20 to 14.21	+1.29	1.97	41
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	12.26	13.53 13.32 to 13.60	+1.27	2.32	41
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	12.25	13.48 12.83 to 13.59	+1.23	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	12.96	14.19 14.10 to 15.25	+1.23	1.65	29
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	16.50	17.62 17.57 to 17.65	+1.12	2.48	42
Space Operations	National Security	8.17	9.28 9.13 to 9.46	+1.11	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	16.80	17.55 17.53 to 17.58	+0.75	2.41	41
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	11.52	11.97 11.95 to 12.00	+0.45	1.29	22
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.97	14.35 14.31 to 14.38	+0.38	1.23	22
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	16.39	16.56 16.53 to 16.67	+0.17	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	12.27	12.43 12.33 to 12.52	+0.16	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	17.45	17.54 17.40 to 17.68	+0.09	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	14.61	14.69 14.63 to 14.83	+0.08	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	14.04	14.09 13.99 to 14.19	+0.05	0.00	0
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	1.49	1.44 1.44 to 1.45	−0.05	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.32	15.26 15.16 to 15.36	−0.06	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.83	11.76 11.62 to 11.98	−0.07	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	13.85	13.77 13.72 to 13.86	−0.08	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	12.82	12.72 12.68 to 12.78	−0.10	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	14.91	14.80 14.64 to 14.89	−0.11	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	17.34	17.22 17.18 to 17.25	−0.12	0.00	0
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.35	15.17 15.08 to 15.29	−0.18	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.41	14.17 14.11 to 14.23	−0.24	0.00	0
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.31	13.96 13.90 to 14.00	−0.35	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	13.95	13.55 13.50 to 13.60	−0.40	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	13.95	13.50 12.42 to 13.65	−0.45	1.00	17
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	15.85	15.35 15.24 to 15.39	−0.50	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.34	11.80 11.79 to 11.81	−0.54	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	14.74	14.19 14.17 to 14.23	−0.55	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	14.56	13.97 13.90 to 14.04	−0.59	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	15.32	14.72 14.56 to 14.83	−0.60	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.10	15.50 15.49 to 15.52	−0.60	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	17.79	17.09 17.03 to 17.16	−0.70	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	13.85	13.13 13.06 to 13.15	−0.72	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	14.08	13.35 13.32 to 13.37	−0.73	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	15.16	14.09 14.04 to 14.11	−1.07	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	16.20	14.88 14.87 to 14.90	−1.32	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	14.81	13.06 13.05 to 13.08	−1.75	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	13.60	11.82 11.74 to 11.93	−1.78	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 3.4e-13
passscores_in_boundsscores range 1.437 to 20.000
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded actions played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (3 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 6.3e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-round change in a group with no shock landing: 1.81 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 6 tiers (10 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 21; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.029; most funded group hard.critical_technology.space_technologies
passsame_actionthe most repeated action (group and mode) appears in a median 30% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment mcts-m7.m7-kor-greedy. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: South Korea (KOR)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Greedy. Each round, the actions with the most value per credit: a level's own worth plus its long-run effect downstream through the graph, less the maintenance it will need, counting only what arrives before the horizon.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Global funding seizure in year 12, Trade bloc rupture in year 23, Severe pandemic in year 24
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 10 seeds, 1 to 10. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 648.5 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: MCTS M7, backcast pathway (mcts-m7)
Runtime: 1.0 seconds in all; 787 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.