Simulation 5
South Korea, greedy, 30 years from 1996, seed 5: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 10. Capability index 13.13 at the 1996 position, 15.10 in 2026; 150 actions over 30 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 5
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 6 (median simulation), 8 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 15.10 (+1.98)
- From 13.13
- Rank by index
- 10
- From 21
- Domains at Tier 1
- 2
- From 0
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizure | 12.88 −0.241 |
| 1998 |
| 12.95 +0.064 | |
| 1999 |
| 13.01 +0.063 | |
| 2000 |
| 13.10 +0.086 | |
| 2001 |
| 13.20 +0.099 | |
| 2002 |
| 13.29 +0.090 | |
| 2003 |
| 13.39 +0.103 | |
| 2004 |
| 13.51 +0.115 | |
| 2005 |
| 13.61 +0.098 | |
| 2006 |
| 13.74 +0.134 | |
| 2007 |
| 13.82 +0.081 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 13.75 −0.070 |
| 2009 |
| 13.91 +0.161 | |
| 2010 |
| 14.02 +0.106 | |
| 2011 |
| 14.14 +0.123 | |
| 2012 |
| 14.22 +0.081 | |
| 2013 |
| 14.31 +0.087 | |
| 2014 |
| 14.44 +0.129 | |
| 2015 |
| 14.54 +0.107 | |
| 2016 |
| 14.65 +0.107 | |
| 2017 |
| 14.79 +0.137 | |
| 2018 |
| 14.87 +0.081 | |
| 2019 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 14.91 +0.037 |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 14.61 −0.300 |
| 2021 |
| 14.64 +0.040 | |
| 2022 |
| 14.74 +0.090 | |
| 2023 |
| 14.82 +0.084 | |
| 2024 |
| 14.90 +0.077 | |
| 2025 |
| 14.98 +0.085 | |
| 2026 |
| 15.10 +0.122 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Governance & Integrity | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Financial Strength | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Production & Innovation | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −3.214 | −222.6 | −2.67 |
| No shocks | +0.969 | +67.8 | +0.67 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.014 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.017 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.017 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.017 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.346 | +24.3 | +0.33 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.337 | +22.8 | +0.33 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.205 | +14.2 | +0.33 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.86 | 14.99 | +9.13 | +9.88 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.16 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 9.10 | 17.37 | +8.27 | +8.96 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.33 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 11.61 | 19.74 | +8.13 | +9.09 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.02 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.50 | 19.81 | +6.31 | +8.46 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.09 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 11.79 | 17.97 | +6.18 | +6.93 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.20 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 13.83 | 19.89 | +6.06 | +7.26 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.32 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.92 | 17.97 | +6.05 | +8.07 | 0.00 | −2.23 | +0.20 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 12.15 | 17.64 | +5.49 | +7.03 | 0.00 | −1.68 | +0.14 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 9.67 | 14.71 | +5.04 | +5.78 | 0.00 | −0.93 | +0.19 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 14.13 | 18.88 | +4.75 | +5.95 | 0.00 | −1.63 | +0.42 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.25 | 16.89 | +4.64 | +5.74 | 0.00 | −1.43 | +0.33 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 13.54 | 18.15 | +4.61 | +5.30 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.19 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.51 | 14.74 | +4.23 | +5.42 | 0.00 | −1.53 | +0.35 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 12.91 | 17.12 | +4.21 | +4.79 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.50 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 10.98 | 15.13 | +4.15 | +3.92 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +1.14 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.79 | 14.82 | +4.03 | +5.23 | 0.00 | −1.34 | +0.14 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 13.90 | 17.80 | +3.90 | +5.55 | 0.00 | −1.85 | +0.19 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 15.36 | 19.17 | +3.81 | +4.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.26 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 14.88 | 18.67 | +3.79 | +4.33 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.33 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 10.07 | 13.78 | +3.71 | +4.01 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.27 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 14.00 | 17.68 | +3.68 | +3.49 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.73 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.36 | 17.95 | +3.59 | +5.09 | 0.00 | −2.21 | +0.71 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.70 | 18.19 | +3.49 | +4.03 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.65 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 14.64 | 18.05 | +3.41 | +5.12 | 0.00 | −1.60 | −0.11 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 11.32 | 14.56 | +3.24 | +3.85 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.29 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.42 | 15.48 | +3.06 | +4.02 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.30 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.33 | 14.26 | +2.93 | +2.89 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.62 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 10.84 | 13.34 | +2.50 | +3.11 | 0.00 | −0.60 | −0.01 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.03 | 9.40 | +2.37 | +2.66 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.38 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 9.42 | 11.44 | +2.02 | +3.85 | 0.00 | −1.86 | +0.04 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 10.60 | 12.29 | +1.69 | +3.53 | 0.00 | −1.94 | +0.10 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.98 | 17.42 | +1.44 | +2.02 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.08 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 12.32 | 13.72 | +1.40 | +2.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.02 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 12.26 | 13.60 | +1.34 | +2.46 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.05 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 12.91 | 14.20 | +1.29 | +1.96 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.01 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 12.96 | 14.18 | +1.22 | +1.29 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.77 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 8.17 | 9.29 | +1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +1.40 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 16.50 | 17.58 | +1.08 | +2.40 | 0.00 | −1.55 | +0.23 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 12.25 | 13.24 | +0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +1.28 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.61 | 16.50 | +0.89 | +1.05 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.38 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 16.80 | 17.51 | +0.71 | +2.41 | 0.00 | −1.73 | +0.03 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.52 | 11.96 | +0.44 | +1.29 | 0.00 | −0.89 | +0.04 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.97 | 14.37 | +0.40 | +1.23 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.01 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.27 | 12.55 | +0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.57 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.39 | 16.55 | +0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.43 |
| Air Power | National Security | 14.61 | 14.76 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.43 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 14.04 | 14.10 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.33 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 13.85 | 13.87 | +0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.30 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.45 | 17.46 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.53 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 14.91 | 14.89 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +1.11 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.82 | 12.78 | −0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.24 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.49 | 1.44 | −0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.05 | 0.00 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.32 | 15.25 | −0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.63 |
| Land Power | National Security | 17.34 | 17.22 | −0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.15 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.35 | 15.18 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.36 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.83 | 11.62 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.35 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.41 | 14.12 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.24 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.95 | 13.63 | −0.32 | +1.25 | 0.00 | −2.10 | +0.53 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 13.95 | 13.53 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.19 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.31 | 13.88 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.12 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 15.85 | 15.38 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.59 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.56 | 14.04 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | +0.42 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.34 | 11.81 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.02 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.74 | 14.21 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.06 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.10 | 15.49 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | −0.13 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 14.08 | 13.37 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.03 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 13.85 | 13.13 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.07 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 15.32 | 14.60 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.27 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.79 | 17.03 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.19 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 15.16 | 14.11 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.07 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.20 | 14.87 | −1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.29 | −0.04 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 14.81 | 13.05 | −1.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.79 | +0.04 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 13.60 | 11.78 | −1.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.02 | +0.20 |
Seed 5 of experiment mcts-m7.m7-kor-greedy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.