Simulation 4
South Korea, tree search, 30 years from 1996, seed 4: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 10. Capability index 13.13 at the 1996 position, 15.18 in 2026; 150 actions over 30 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 4
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 1 (median simulation), 6 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 15.18 (+2.05)
- From 13.13
- Rank by index
- 10
- From 21
- Domains at Tier 1
- 3
- From 0
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizure | 12.88 −0.249 |
| 1998 |
| 12.93 +0.049 | |
| 1999 |
| 13.02 +0.089 | |
| 2000 |
| 13.10 +0.085 | |
| 2001 |
| 13.19 +0.092 | |
| 2002 |
| 13.29 +0.095 | |
| 2003 |
| 13.39 +0.104 | |
| 2004 |
| 13.49 +0.099 | |
| 2005 |
| 13.60 +0.114 | |
| 2006 |
| 13.70 +0.094 | |
| 2007 |
| 13.83 +0.132 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 13.73 −0.103 |
| 2009 |
| 13.85 +0.127 | |
| 2010 |
| 13.98 +0.124 | |
| 2011 |
| 14.13 +0.156 | |
| 2012 |
| 14.25 +0.118 | |
| 2013 |
| 14.34 +0.090 | |
| 2014 |
| 14.43 +0.087 | |
| 2015 |
| 14.54 +0.116 | |
| 2016 |
| 14.66 +0.116 | |
| 2017 |
| 14.77 +0.113 | |
| 2018 |
| 14.91 +0.137 | |
| 2019 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 14.97 +0.056 |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 14.67 −0.293 |
| 2021 |
| 14.71 +0.036 | |
| 2022 |
| 14.80 +0.091 | |
| 2023 |
| 14.89 +0.093 | |
| 2024 |
| 14.96 +0.071 | |
| 2025 |
| 15.04 +0.082 | |
| 2026 |
| 15.18 +0.133 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Governance & Integrity | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Financial Strength | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −3.244 | −224.4 | −3.00 |
| No shocks | +1.025 | +71.9 | +1.33 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.016 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.023 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.023 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.014 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.025 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.349 | +24.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.330 | +22.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.209 | +14.4 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 9.10 | 17.69 | +8.59 | +9.15 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.36 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.86 | 14.20 | +8.34 | +9.07 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.17 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 11.61 | 19.77 | +8.16 | +9.12 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.04 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 11.79 | 18.24 | +6.45 | +7.17 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.22 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.50 | 19.87 | +6.37 | +8.48 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.18 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.92 | 18.10 | +6.18 | +8.16 | 0.00 | −2.21 | +0.23 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 12.15 | 17.82 | +5.67 | +7.19 | 0.00 | −1.67 | +0.15 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 13.83 | 19.16 | +5.33 | +5.37 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.40 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 9.67 | 14.89 | +5.22 | +5.92 | 0.00 | −0.93 | +0.23 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 13.54 | 18.21 | +4.67 | +5.39 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.16 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.25 | 16.89 | +4.64 | +5.74 | 0.00 | −1.43 | +0.32 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 12.91 | 17.34 | +4.43 | +4.99 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.53 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.51 | 14.86 | +4.35 | +5.52 | 0.00 | −1.51 | +0.34 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.42 | 16.68 | +4.26 | +5.21 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.31 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.79 | 14.95 | +4.16 | +5.27 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.20 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 15.36 | 19.47 | +4.11 | +4.05 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.50 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 13.90 | 17.98 | +4.08 | +5.67 | 0.00 | −1.76 | +0.17 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 14.13 | 18.21 | +4.08 | +4.98 | 0.00 | −1.63 | +0.73 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 14.88 | 18.85 | +3.97 | +4.48 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.35 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.36 | 18.30 | +3.94 | +5.60 | 0.00 | −2.15 | +0.49 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 14.00 | 17.85 | +3.85 | +3.55 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.82 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 10.07 | 13.74 | +3.67 | +4.10 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.15 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.70 | 18.29 | +3.59 | +4.00 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.78 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 14.64 | 18.11 | +3.47 | +5.19 | 0.00 | −1.60 | −0.12 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 11.32 | 14.69 | +3.37 | +3.90 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.37 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.33 | 14.62 | +3.29 | +2.94 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.93 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 8.17 | 11.08 | +2.91 | +1.23 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +1.99 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 10.98 | 13.84 | +2.86 | +2.81 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.95 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.98 | 18.50 | +2.52 | +3.04 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.12 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 9.42 | 11.67 | +2.25 | +3.95 | 0.00 | −1.85 | +0.15 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.61 | 17.56 | +1.95 | +2.09 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.39 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 10.60 | 12.32 | +1.72 | +3.58 | 0.00 | −1.92 | +0.07 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 10.84 | 12.40 | +1.56 | +2.17 | 0.00 | −0.60 | −0.02 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 12.32 | 13.77 | +1.45 | +2.06 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.02 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 12.91 | 14.31 | +1.40 | +2.07 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.01 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 12.25 | 13.61 | +1.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +1.65 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 12.96 | 14.19 | +1.23 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.77 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 12.26 | 13.43 | +1.17 | +2.38 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.03 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 16.50 | 17.59 | +1.09 | +2.46 | 0.00 | −1.55 | +0.17 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.03 | 8.07 | +1.04 | +1.23 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.48 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 16.80 | 17.73 | +0.93 | +2.52 | 0.00 | −1.73 | +0.15 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.52 | 12.01 | +0.49 | +1.33 | 0.00 | −0.89 | +0.05 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.97 | 14.38 | +0.41 | +1.26 | 0.00 | −0.83 | −0.01 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.32 | 15.63 | +0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +1.01 |
| Air Power | National Security | 14.61 | 14.84 | +0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.50 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 14.04 | 14.20 | +0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.43 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.45 | 17.60 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.67 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.39 | 16.53 | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.42 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.27 | 12.39 | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.41 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 14.91 | 14.90 | −0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +1.11 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 13.85 | 13.83 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.26 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.49 | 1.44 | −0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.05 | 0.00 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.41 | 14.31 | −0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.44 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.82 | 12.72 | −0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.18 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.35 | 15.19 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.37 |
| Land Power | National Security | 17.34 | 17.16 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.09 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.83 | 11.62 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.35 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.31 | 13.97 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.20 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.95 | 13.57 | −0.38 | +1.27 | 0.00 | −2.09 | +0.45 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 13.95 | 13.53 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.18 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.56 | 14.13 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | +0.50 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.34 | 11.81 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.03 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.74 | 14.21 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.05 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 15.85 | 15.28 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.48 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.10 | 15.52 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | −0.09 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 13.85 | 13.15 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.09 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 14.08 | 13.37 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.02 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.79 | 17.06 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.22 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 15.32 | 14.57 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.25 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 15.16 | 14.13 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.10 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.20 | 14.89 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.29 | −0.02 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 13.60 | 11.92 | −1.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.01 | +0.32 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 14.81 | 13.06 | −1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.78 | +0.04 |
Seed 4 of experiment mcts-m7.m7-kor-mcts-index. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.