Simulation 41
United Kingdom, greedy, 10 years, seed 41: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 16.74 in 2036; 50 actions over 10 rounds and 3 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 41
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 9 (median simulation), 100 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2036.
- Capability index
- 16.74 (+0.29)
- From 16.45
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 3
- Domains at Tier 1
- 5
- From 2
- Events
- 3 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.48 +0.027 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.57 +0.085 | |
| 2029 |
| Global funding seizure | 16.23 −0.335 |
| 2030 |
| 16.38 +0.145 | |
| 2031 |
| Regional war spillover | 16.19 −0.182 |
| 2032 |
| 16.35 +0.159 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.49 +0.140 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.59 +0.095 | |
| 2035 |
| Hybrid coercion | 16.58 −0.010 |
| 2036 |
| 16.74 +0.161 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Financial Strength | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 25 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.299 | −90.3 | −5.36 |
| No shocks | +0.641 | +45.3 | +0.04 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.019 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.021 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.023 | −1.5 | −0.04 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.020 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.020 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.393 | +26.6 | +0.56 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.315 | +22.0 | +0.92 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.216 | +15.2 | +0.50 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2036 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.67 | 20.00 | +5.33 | +8.11 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.01 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.00 | 20.00 | +5.00 | +7.88 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.04 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.75 | 19.96 | +4.21 | +4.92 | 0.00 | −0.29 | −0.07 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 20.00 | +3.50 | +4.11 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.09 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 18.92 | +2.92 | +3.84 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.18 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 18.80 | +2.80 | +4.26 | 0.00 | −1.55 | +0.09 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 15.67 | 18.21 | +2.54 | +3.90 | 0.00 | −1.26 | −0.10 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 16.00 | 18.47 | +2.47 | +3.64 | 0.00 | −1.25 | +0.09 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 17.67 | +2.34 | +4.08 | 0.00 | −1.72 | −0.02 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 19.67 | +2.17 | +3.33 | 0.00 | −1.22 | +0.06 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.92 | +1.92 | +3.79 | 0.00 | −1.68 | −0.19 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.25 | 17.16 | +1.91 | +3.09 | 0.00 | −1.05 | −0.14 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.76 | +1.76 | +3.63 | 0.00 | −1.89 | +0.01 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.72 | +1.72 | +2.73 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.04 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 17.25 | 18.68 | +1.43 | +2.83 | 0.00 | −1.86 | +0.46 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 18.76 | +1.26 | +1.58 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.37 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.86 | +1.26 | +1.94 | 0.00 | −0.68 | 0.00 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.19 | +1.19 | +1.38 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.11 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 17.14 | +1.14 | +1.63 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.08 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 17.33 | 18.38 | +1.05 | +1.67 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.07 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.60 | 16.55 | +0.95 | +1.70 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.01 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 14.92 | +0.92 | +1.54 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.03 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 18.36 | +0.86 | +1.42 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.14 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 16.40 | 17.24 | +0.84 | +1.61 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.18 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 14.76 | +0.76 | +1.39 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.05 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 14.67 | 15.39 | +0.72 | +1.67 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.10 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.25 | 17.94 | +0.69 | +1.93 | 0.00 | −1.23 | −0.01 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 18.68 | +0.68 | +1.67 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.07 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.60 | 16.12 | +0.52 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.06 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 15.46 | +0.46 | +1.82 | 0.00 | −1.60 | +0.24 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 18.33 | 18.14 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.10 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 15.62 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | −0.07 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 15.62 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | −0.07 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.33 | 15.82 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | −0.02 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 14.00 | 13.46 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.11 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.75 | 16.19 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.01 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 17.67 | 17.10 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | −0.01 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.60 | 17.02 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | −0.03 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 18.40 | 17.81 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.09 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.67 | 16.08 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.01 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 17.20 | 16.60 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | −0.04 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 15.73 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.01 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.57 | 15.97 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.04 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 16.25 | 15.65 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.02 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 14.84 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | −0.06 |
| Air Power | National Security | 17.00 | 16.31 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.07 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 16.67 | 15.98 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.07 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 15.80 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.08 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.09 | 16.37 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.10 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 12.78 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.01 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 14.67 | 13.91 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.64 | −0.12 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 15.24 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.05 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 17.33 | 16.56 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.07 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.20 | 14.40 | −0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.04 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 18.00 | 17.19 | −0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.02 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 15.67 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | −0.01 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.40 | 15.50 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.01 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 17.08 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.01 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 13.30 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | −0.10 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 17.50 | 16.52 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.04 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 17.00 | 15.97 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | −0.02 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 14.67 | 13.55 | −1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | −0.07 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 14.87 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.06 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 13.10 | −1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.22 | +0.07 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.00 | 15.83 | −1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.15 | −0.02 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 17.00 | 15.78 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.02 | −0.20 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.25 | 16.99 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | −0.20 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 17.00 | 15.70 | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.23 | −0.07 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 14.67 | −1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.40 | −0.06 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 16.19 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.47 | −0.01 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 17.75 | 16.26 | −1.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.46 | −0.03 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.40 | 15.90 | −1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.47 | −0.03 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 16.06 | −1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.47 | −0.14 |
Seed 41 of experiment stress-preview.e5-gbr-s02-greedy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.