E3 · cycle-001.e3-ken-greedy-marginal

Kenya, greedy, 20 years

100 simulations of 20 rounds from the 2026 position. Kenya decides by the greedy method; the shock and upside library, drawn at random each round.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–100 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2046, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 100 simulations under it.

Capability index: 7.38 (+0.21); From 7.18; 5.74 to 8.05
Rank by index: 76; From 79; 68 to 105
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 72; From 91; 65 to 87

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	2026	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	7.18	5.74	7.38	8.05	higher
Rank by index	79	68	76	105	lower
Tier rank	91	65	72	87	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	505.8	407.7	524.2	572.3	higher
Goal-weighted score	505.8	407.7	524.2	572.3	higher
Resilient score	505.8	502.6 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 16 per cent, buy took 57 per cent, partner took 27 per cent of the 544 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-001. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 100 simulations, seeds 1 to 100; probes on 20. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Kenya played 20 rounds from 2026 under the greedy marginal method, with stochastic events, 100 times. Its capability index moved from 7.18 to a median of 7.38 (+0.20), with 90 per cent of simulations between 5.45 and 8.19 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 2026 the nation ranks 79 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 91. Its base income is 143 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 539 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (buy, 64 credits, 11.6 per cent); Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies (buy, 46 credits, 8.4 per cent); Technical & Vocational Skills (build, 41 credits, 7.5 per cent); Development Cooperation & Global Assistance (buy, 33 credits, 6.2 per cent); Artificial Intelligence (buy, 31 credits, 5.8 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: buy 55 per cent, partner 30 per cent, build 15 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.063, and the most repeated action appeared in 50 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Human Capital; rounds 6 to 10, Critical Technology; rounds 11 to 15, Critical Technology; rounds 16 to 20, Critical Technology [experiment_spend_by_period].

The method's chosen action was within 5 per cent of its best alternative in 94 per cent of moves and ahead by more than 25 per cent in 0 per cent [experiment_decision_margins].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 2 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S06 (32 firings in 28 simulations, −59.1 points each); S03 (33 firings in 31 simulations, −48.2 points each); S05 (9 firings in 9 simulations, −38.6 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 51 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −2.10; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −1.86; Monetary & Currency Capability −1.65; Economic Leverage & Dependence −1.60 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Semiconductors & Advanced Computing to Artificial Intelligence (+1.38 points); Semiconductors & Advanced Computing to Economic Leverage & Dependence (+0.50 points); Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies to Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations (+0.47 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2046 the median rank is 76 (5th to 95th percentile 65 to 111), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 72; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 503 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.361 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.361 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.994: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.015 and −0.011, for example 2039 partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (8 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.767 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 4 tiers (96 simulations above 2).

retired_words (warn): e3-ken-greedy-marginal/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 33) ends −4.31 from it, with 7 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

Against the hold experiment for the same nation (e3-ken-hold), the median index is +0.98 points apart, the median rank 76 against 91, and Tier 1 domains 0 against 0 [experiment_against_hold].

No backcast comparison: this experiment does not start from a historical position [experiment_against_history].

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 20 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	For example
Hold instead of the method	−0.994	−72.9
No shocks	+1.361	+97.8
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.015	−1.2	2039 partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (8 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.014	−1.1	2039 partner Economic Leverage & Dependence (8 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.012	−0.8	2039 partner Investment Attraction & Projection (8 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.012	−0.9	2038 buy Sensing, Timing & Navigation (7 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.011	−0.9	2038 buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (7 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.767	+54.4	2039 S03 (-63.2 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.560	+39.3	2038 S03 (-41.5 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.482	+33.7	2027 S05 (-38.9 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 100 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 100 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	31 per cent	10.6	−48.2
AI labour shock S08	Shock	29 per cent	10.3	−28.8
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	28 per cent	9.8	−59.1
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	26 per cent	10.3	−26.9
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	22 per cent	8.7	−17.1
Hybrid coercion S04	Shock	18 per cent	9.1	−13.5
Market access opening S12	Upside	14 per cent	8.4	+9.5
Water-efficient food leap S16	Upside	13 per cent	10.6	+12.3
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	9 per cent	10.0	−38.6
Core disaster S07	Shock	9 per cent	7.4	−35.4
Cryptographic trust break S09	Shock	9 per cent	10.3	−32.4
Clean power threshold S15	Upside	8 per cent	12.2	+8.8
Chronic disease advance S19	Upside	5 per cent	7.6	+3.9
Automated discovery step S17	Upside	4 per cent	13.8	+4.0
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	3 per cent	10.0	−27.0
Middle East settlement S14	Upside	2 per cent	2.5	+8.4
Public service leap S18	Upside	2 per cent	11.5	+13.2
Debt service reset S11	Upside	1 per cent	13.0	+5.4
Outbreak defence succeeds S20	Upside	1 per cent	3.0	+7.7

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.00	6.56 5.27 to 7.31	+5.56	6.20	63
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	4.00	9.23 8.01 to 9.89	+5.23	5.89	46
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	7.00	11.65 10.31 to 12.16	+4.65	4.79	41
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.33	9.97 8.60 to 10.74	+4.64	3.91	31
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	4.50	7.76 6.04 to 8.48	+3.26	3.98	33
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	7.00	10.03 8.13 to 10.46	+3.03	3.08	26
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	7.50	10.39 8.77 to 11.12	+2.89	3.54	30
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	2.43	5.29 3.42 to 6.30	+2.86	3.33	29
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.00	11.83 10.42 to 12.36	+2.83	3.51	27
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	1.60	4.33 0.97 to 5.57	+2.73	3.03	26
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	9.75	11.93 10.41 to 12.70	+2.18	3.19	25
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	7.50	9.59 7.75 to 10.09	+2.09	2.29	22
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	6.33	8.06 6.09 to 8.99	+1.73	2.85	25
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.33	2.78 0.00 to 4.12	+1.45	1.58	18
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.25	4.55 2.15 to 5.47	+1.30	1.41	12
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	3.60	4.87 2.44 to 5.51	+1.27	1.70	15
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	7.67	8.54 6.78 to 9.53	+0.87	2.05	19
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	7.50	8.09 6.41 to 8.93	+0.59	1.44	18
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	6.67	6.80 4.67 to 7.69	+0.13	0.90	7
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	7.33	7.39 6.15 to 8.02	+0.06	0.41	5
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.01	0.00	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	7.00	6.95 5.13 to 7.78	−0.05	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	4.67	4.55 3.41 to 5.28	−0.12	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	6.83	6.55 5.26 to 7.15	−0.28	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	8.75	8.41 7.24 to 8.76	−0.34	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	7.00	6.62 4.92 to 7.03	−0.38	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	8.50	8.12 6.21 to 8.52	−0.38	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	8.75	8.37 6.19 to 9.02	−0.38	1.29	21
Advanced Education	Human Capital	7.67	7.28 6.09 to 7.68	−0.39	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	8.33	7.94 6.68 to 8.35	−0.39	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	9.67	9.25 8.26 to 9.70	−0.42	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	9.00	8.57 7.47 to 9.00	−0.43	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.00	7.56 6.45 to 8.13	−0.44	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	11.00	10.55 9.32 to 11.01	−0.45	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.00	7.53 6.50 to 8.03	−0.47	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	4.75	4.23 2.96 to 4.90	−0.52	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	7.67	7.15 5.66 to 7.70	−0.52	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	11.00	10.46 8.20 to 11.40	−0.54	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	2.33	1.77 0.01 to 2.55	−0.56	0.00	0
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.29	9.72 8.33 to 10.40	−0.57	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	1.25	0.68 0.00 to 1.28	−0.57	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.20	4.63 3.45 to 5.33	−0.57	0.03	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.67	4.10 2.54 to 4.85	−0.57	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.50	5.93 4.23 to 6.79	−0.57	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.00	5.41 3.35 to 6.18	−0.59	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	8.00	7.40 5.97 to 7.99	−0.60	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	6.33	5.73 3.95 to 6.34	−0.60	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	2.33	1.72 0.39 to 2.57	−0.61	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	8.00	7.38 6.10 to 8.02	−0.62	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	7.25	6.61 5.33 to 7.30	−0.64	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	9.50	8.84 7.51 to 9.50	−0.66	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.09	7.42 5.79 to 8.13	−0.67	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	3.50	2.83 1.01 to 3.50	−0.67	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.25	7.57 5.12 to 8.31	−0.68	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.00	6.32 4.11 to 7.07	−0.68	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	8.00	7.32 5.67 to 8.11	−0.68	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	6.00	5.31 3.25 to 6.19	−0.69	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	7.60	6.90 5.43 to 7.60	−0.70	0.00	0
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.25	8.53 6.63 to 9.34	−0.72	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	6.75	6.00 3.72 to 6.97	−0.75	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.00	10.23 8.54 to 11.00	−0.77	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	9.80	9.01 7.05 to 9.96	−0.79	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.00	8.20 6.55 to 9.00	−0.80	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	9.25	8.39 6.40 to 9.25	−0.86	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	7.67	6.81 4.82 to 7.83	−0.86	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	9.40	8.54 6.29 to 9.40	−0.86	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	8.67	7.80 6.01 to 8.77	−0.87	0.12	1
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	9.50	8.62 6.11 to 9.60	−0.88	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	7.75	6.86 4.89 to 7.80	−0.89	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.00	7.05 4.96 to 8.00	−0.95	0.00	0
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.25	6.22 3.73 to 7.37	−1.03	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	10.00	8.80 6.05 to 10.01	−1.20	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	9.50	8.22 5.97 to 9.50	−1.28	0.39	3

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 2.8e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 13.245
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (20 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.0e-06 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.11 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 4 tiers (96 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 79; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low21% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.063; most funded group hard.critical_technology.semiconductors_and_advanced_computing
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 50% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-001.e3-ken-greedy-marginal. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Kenya (KEN)
Position: The 2026 ratings of the National Capability Index
Method: Greedy. Each round, the actions with the most value per credit: a level's own worth plus its long-run effect downstream through the graph, less the maintenance it will need, counting only what arrives before the horizon.
Scenario: The shock and upside library, drawn at random each round
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 20 rounds, 2026 to 2046
Simulations: 100 seeds, 1 to 100. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 143 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Improvement cycle (cycle-001), cycle 1 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 6.3 seconds in all; 1008 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.