Simulation 21
Kenya, greedy, 20 years, seed 21: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 7.18 at the 2026 position, 5.76 in 2046; 90 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 21
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 61 (median simulation), 68 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 5.76 (−1.42)
- From 7.18
- Rank by index
- 104
- From 79
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| Chronic disease advance | 7.22 +0.044 |
| 2028 |
| Global funding seizure | 6.85 −0.375 |
| 2029 |
| 6.88 +0.036 | |
| 2030 |
| 6.92 +0.042 | |
| 2031 |
| 6.99 +0.067 | |
| 2032 |
| AI labour shock | 6.93 −0.063 |
| 2033 |
| 6.83 −0.101 | |
| 2034 |
| 6.72 −0.110 | |
| 2035 |
| 6.74 +0.025 | |
| 2036 |
| 6.77 +0.028 | |
| 2037 |
| 6.80 +0.032 | |
| 2038 |
| 6.85 +0.049 | |
| 2039 |
| 6.88 +0.034 | |
| 2040 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 6.19 −0.698 |
| 2041 |
| 6.21 +0.022 | |
| 2042 |
| 6.24 +0.027 | |
| 2043 |
| 6.27 +0.034 | |
| 2044 |
| Global funding seizure | 5.84 −0.432 |
| 2045 |
| Automated discovery step | 5.86 +0.022 |
| 2046 |
| AI labour shock | 5.76 −0.104 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| National Security | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Human Capital | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Information & Influence | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Governance & Integrity | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Financial Strength | 17 | 17 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Production & Innovation | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Trade & Investment | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.994 | −72.9 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +1.361 | +97.8 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.015 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.014 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.012 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.012 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.011 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.767 | +54.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.560 | +39.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.482 | +33.7 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 7.00 | 11.01 | +4.01 | +4.89 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.07 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.00 | 4.95 | +3.95 | +6.00 | 0.00 | −2.03 | −0.03 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.00 | 7.58 | +3.58 | +5.52 | 0.00 | −1.91 | −0.03 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 7.88 | +2.55 | +3.86 | 0.00 | −2.35 | +1.05 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 7.00 | 8.35 | +1.35 | +2.59 | 0.00 | −1.21 | −0.04 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 9.00 | 10.32 | +1.32 | +3.51 | 0.00 | −2.02 | −0.17 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 8.76 | +1.26 | +3.43 | 0.00 | −2.22 | +0.05 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 4.50 | 5.73 | +1.23 | +3.76 | 0.00 | −2.41 | −0.12 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 2.43 | 3.02 | +0.59 | +2.32 | 0.00 | −1.70 | −0.03 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 7.50 | 7.98 | +0.48 | +1.85 | 0.00 | −1.24 | −0.13 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 9.75 | 9.87 | +0.12 | +2.72 | 0.00 | −2.45 | −0.15 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.01 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.05 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 6.33 | 5.95 | −0.38 | +2.47 | 0.00 | −2.57 | −0.28 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 4.67 | 4.04 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | +0.36 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 6.83 | 6.04 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.18 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 5.98 | −1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.15 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 7.67 | 6.58 | −1.09 | +3.54 | 0.00 | −4.42 | −0.21 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 6.33 | 5.23 | −1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.97 | −0.13 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 7.00 | 5.89 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | −0.12 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.29 | 9.16 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | −0.07 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 3.50 | 2.36 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.13 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.75 | 3.58 | −1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | −0.18 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 2.33 | 1.16 | −1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.13 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 8.75 | 7.57 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.22 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 8.50 | 7.31 | −1.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.23 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 7.33 | 6.14 | −1.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.23 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.25 | 0.00 | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | −0.04 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.00 | 4.74 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.18 | −0.08 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 2.33 | 1.04 | −1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.25 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 5.68 | −1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.17 | −0.15 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.33 | 0.00 | −1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | −0.05 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.25 | 6.92 | −1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.15 | −0.18 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.25 | 5.90 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.19 |
| Land Power | National Security | 7.25 | 5.90 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.40 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.67 | 3.28 | −1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.20 | −0.19 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 6.08 | −1.42 | +1.97 | 0.00 | −3.29 | −0.10 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.25 | 1.79 | −1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.58 | +0.12 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 8.33 | 6.87 | −1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | −0.19 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 7.67 | 6.20 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.36 | −0.11 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 6.50 | −1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.31 | −0.18 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 6.49 | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.31 | −0.20 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.25 | 7.73 | −1.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | −0.38 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.20 | 3.68 | −1.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.46 | −0.06 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 6.46 | −1.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.52 | −0.02 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 1.60 | 0.00 | −1.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | −0.15 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.60 | 1.96 | −1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.05 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 9.00 | 7.18 | −1.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.05 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 9.67 | 7.84 | −1.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.74 | −0.09 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 11.00 | 9.10 | −1.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.93 | +0.03 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 7.67 | 5.75 | −1.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.82 | −0.10 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.09 | 6.16 | −1.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.54 | −0.39 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 9.50 | 7.51 | −1.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.97 | −0.02 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 6.50 | 4.38 | −2.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.05 | −0.07 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 8.00 | 5.86 | −2.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.03 | −0.11 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 11.00 | 8.85 | −2.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.98 | −0.17 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 7.60 | 5.44 | −2.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.02 | −0.15 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 7.75 | 5.57 | −2.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.04 | −0.14 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 8.00 | 5.78 | −2.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.92 | −0.30 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.00 | 8.62 | −2.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.61 | −0.76 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.00 | 6.60 | −2.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.01 | −0.40 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 6.67 | 4.15 | −2.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.49 | −0.03 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 8.75 | 6.20 | −2.55 | +3.11 | 0.00 | −5.30 | −0.36 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 8.67 | 6.06 | −2.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.43 | −0.17 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 6.87 | −2.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.41 | −0.22 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 6.00 | 3.24 | −2.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.70 | −0.06 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 9.80 | 7.04 | −2.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.55 | −0.21 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 6.34 | −3.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.06 | −0.10 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 7.67 | 4.14 | −3.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.51 | −0.02 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 6.75 | 3.00 | −3.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.73 | −0.02 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 9.40 | 5.62 | −3.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.69 | −0.09 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 9.25 | 5.47 | −3.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.70 | −0.08 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 8.00 | 4.11 | −3.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.77 | −0.12 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 10.00 | 5.08 | −4.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.57 | −0.35 |
Seed 21 of experiment cycle-001.e3-ken-greedy-marginal. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.