E3 · cycle-001.e3-ken-random

Kenya, random, 20 years

100 simulations of 20 rounds from the 2026 position. Kenya decides by the random method; the shock and upside library, drawn at random each round.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–100 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2046, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 100 simulations under it.

Capability index: 6.76 (−0.42); From 7.18; 4.96 to 7.55
Rank by index: 85; From 79; 72 to 119
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 96; From 91; 82 to 115

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	2026	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	7.18	4.96	6.76	7.55	higher
Rank by index	79	72	85	119	lower
Tier rank	91	82	96	115	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	505.8	350.7	475.9	533.5	higher
Goal-weighted score	505.8	350.7	475.9	533.5	higher
Resilient score	505.8	458.9 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 36 per cent, buy took 27 per cent, partner took 37 per cent of the 349 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-001. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 100 simulations, seeds 1 to 100; probes on 20. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Kenya played 20 rounds from 2026 under the random method, with stochastic events, 100 times. Its capability index moved from 7.18 to a median of 6.76 (−0.42), with 90 per cent of simulations between 4.77 and 7.70 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 2026 the nation ranks 79 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 91. Its base income is 143 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 356 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Space Operations (partner, 6 credits, 0.6 per cent); Labour & Employment (build, 6 credits, 0.6 per cent); Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power (build, 6 credits, 0.6 per cent); Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment (build, 6 credits, 0.7 per cent); Energy Technologies (build, 5 credits, 0.5 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 36 per cent, partner 36 per cent, buy 27 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.028, and the most repeated action appeared in 15 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, National Security; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Critical Technology; rounds 16 to 20, Critical Technology [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 2 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S06 (32 firings in 28 simulations, −59.0 points each); S03 (33 firings in 31 simulations, −48.5 points each); S05 (9 firings in 9 simulations, −38.2 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 52 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −2.10; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −1.88; Monetary & Currency Capability −1.67; Economic Leverage & Dependence −1.61 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.27 points); Semiconductors & Advanced Computing to Artificial Intelligence (−0.08 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (−0.21 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2046 the median rank is 85 (5th to 95th percentile 72 to 123), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 96; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 459 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.509 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.509 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.366: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.008 and −0.006, for example 2039 build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence (7 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.776 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 4 tiers (11 simulations above 2).

retired_words (warn): e3-ken-random/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 38; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 33) ends −4.08 from it, with 7 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

Against the hold experiment for the same nation (e3-ken-hold), the median index is +0.36 points apart, the median rank 85 against 91, and Tier 1 domains 0 against 0 [experiment_against_hold].

No backcast comparison: this experiment does not start from a historical position [experiment_against_history].

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 20 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	For example
Hold instead of the method	−0.366	−26.7
No shocks	+1.510	+106.5
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.007	−0.5	2039 build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence (7 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.006	−0.5	2039 buy Digital & Services Trade (7 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.008	−0.6	2038 build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing (7 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.007	−0.6	2037 build Maritime Power (7 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.008	−0.6	2037 partner Internal Security & Order (7 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.776	+54.8	2039 S03 (-63.0 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.550	+38.8	2038 S03 (-41.4 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.505	+35.0	2027 S05 (-38.9 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 100 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 100 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	31 per cent	10.6	−48.5
AI labour shock S08	Shock	29 per cent	10.3	−30.1
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	28 per cent	9.8	−59.0
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	26 per cent	10.3	−26.7
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	22 per cent	8.7	−16.9
Hybrid coercion S04	Shock	18 per cent	9.1	−13.4
Market access opening S12	Upside	14 per cent	8.4	+9.2
Water-efficient food leap S16	Upside	13 per cent	10.6	+12.1
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	9 per cent	10.0	−38.3
Core disaster S07	Shock	9 per cent	7.4	−35.5
Cryptographic trust break S09	Shock	9 per cent	10.3	−32.9
Clean power threshold S15	Upside	8 per cent	12.2	+8.4
Chronic disease advance S19	Upside	7 per cent	10.6	+4.1
Automated discovery step S17	Upside	3 per cent	13.7	+2.6
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	3 per cent	10.0	−26.8
Middle East settlement S14	Upside	2 per cent	2.5	+8.4
Public service leap S18	Upside	2 per cent	11.5	+10.5
Debt service reset S11	Upside	1 per cent	13.0	+5.3
Outbreak defence succeeds S20	Upside	1 per cent	3.0	+7.7

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	7.00	7.10 6.14 to 8.01	+0.10	0.51	6
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	7.00	7.02 5.63 to 7.81	+0.02	0.47	6
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.21	0.00	0.11	4
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	7.33	7.28 6.07 to 8.00	−0.05	0.33	5
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	7.50	7.41 6.22 to 8.31	−0.09	0.41	5
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.25	3.14 1.82 to 4.11	−0.11	0.46	5
Advanced Education	Human Capital	7.67	7.51 6.35 to 8.15	−0.16	0.32	5
Population Health	Human Capital	7.00	6.83 4.91 to 7.47	−0.17	0.22	4
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	4.00	3.80 2.54 to 5.19	−0.20	0.61	5
Health System Capability	Human Capital	8.33	8.12 6.61 to 8.92	−0.21	0.27	5
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.20	4.98 3.79 to 5.85	−0.22	0.40	5
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	1.60	1.38 0.16 to 2.21	−0.22	0.41	5
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.33	5.10 3.47 to 6.34	−0.23	0.51	5
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	1.25	1.01 0.00 to 1.84	−0.24	0.39	6
Space Operations	National Security	2.33	2.08 0.90 to 2.88	−0.25	0.34	5
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	7.60	7.34 5.66 to 8.14	−0.26	0.41	5
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.67	4.40 2.69 to 5.25	−0.27	0.33	5
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	2.43	2.16 1.11 to 3.15	−0.27	0.52	6
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.33	1.06 0.08 to 1.70	−0.27	0.29	4
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	6.83	6.56 5.22 to 7.46	−0.27	0.39	6
Air Power	National Security	4.75	4.47 3.09 to 5.18	−0.28	0.28	5
Foundational Education	Human Capital	8.75	8.46 7.42 to 9.18	−0.29	0.19	3
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	4.50	4.21 2.21 to 5.40	−0.29	0.52	5
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.00	7.71 6.50 to 8.57	−0.29	0.24	4
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	2.33	2.03 0.08 to 3.04	−0.30	0.38	6
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	4.67	4.36 3.01 to 5.25	−0.31	0.40	6
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	7.67	7.36 5.91 to 8.06	−0.31	0.29	5
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	3.60	3.29 1.77 to 4.28	−0.31	0.55	6
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	8.50	8.19 6.41 to 8.92	−0.31	0.20	3
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.00	7.68 6.56 to 8.40	−0.32	0.18	4
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	8.00	7.66 5.94 to 8.38	−0.34	0.27	5
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.00	6.65 4.02 to 7.62	−0.35	0.34	6
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.29	9.94 8.36 to 10.90	−0.35	0.33	6
Land Power	National Security	7.25	6.90 5.63 to 7.74	−0.35	0.29	6
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	9.67	9.32 8.28 to 9.92	−0.35	0.12	3
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	9.00	8.64 7.54 to 9.29	−0.36	0.15	3
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.00	5.64 3.56 to 6.71	−0.36	0.39	7
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.25	7.88 5.36 to 8.83	−0.37	0.25	5
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	7.00	6.63 4.89 to 7.58	−0.37	0.29	5
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	6.33	5.96 4.01 to 6.71	−0.37	0.29	6
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	11.00	10.62 9.50 to 11.26	−0.38	0.12	3
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	7.50	7.11 5.31 to 8.48	−0.39	0.48	5
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.00	0.60 0.00 to 1.59	−0.40	0.34	5
Maritime Power	National Security	3.50	3.04 1.33 to 4.05	−0.46	0.32	5
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	6.33	5.87 3.36 to 7.12	−0.46	0.52	6
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	9.50	9.02 7.67 to 9.64	−0.48	0.16	3
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.00	10.51 8.74 to 11.47	−0.49	0.27	4
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	8.00	7.51 6.06 to 8.43	−0.49	0.18	4
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.00	8.51 6.63 to 9.44	−0.49	0.29	5
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.50	5.98 4.29 to 6.95	−0.52	0.37	5
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	8.00	7.47 5.59 to 8.52	−0.53	0.33	5
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	7.67	7.12 4.79 to 8.10	−0.55	0.38	5
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	6.00	5.44 3.51 to 6.61	−0.56	0.41	5
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	9.75	9.19 6.97 to 10.27	−0.56	0.35	4
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	7.50	6.92 4.79 to 8.04	−0.58	0.37	5
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	7.67	7.09 4.57 to 8.27	−0.58	0.53	6
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.00	8.41 6.91 to 9.46	−0.59	0.31	3
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	8.67	8.07 5.73 to 9.18	−0.60	0.45	6
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	7.75	7.14 5.15 to 8.09	−0.61	0.28	4
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.09	7.46 5.45 to 8.38	−0.63	0.15	3
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	11.00	10.37 8.07 to 11.36	−0.63	0.29	5
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.25	8.58 6.28 to 9.85	−0.67	0.22	4
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	9.40	8.73 6.55 to 9.65	−0.67	0.25	5
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	9.25	8.58 6.53 to 9.59	−0.67	0.30	5
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	9.80	9.12 7.05 to 10.16	−0.68	0.16	4
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	9.50	8.81 6.50 to 10.03	−0.69	0.36	5
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	6.75	6.05 3.68 to 7.18	−0.70	0.27	4
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.25	6.52 3.81 to 7.78	−0.73	0.32	6
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.00	7.24 5.11 to 8.47	−0.76	0.35	6
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	6.67	5.79 2.99 to 7.42	−0.88	0.46	5
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	10.00	8.92 5.85 to 10.24	−1.08	0.22	4
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	9.50	8.42 5.25 to 10.01	−1.08	0.36	5
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	8.75	7.40 3.33 to 9.01	−1.35	0.15	3

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 5.7e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 12.430
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (20 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.0e-06 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.20 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 4 tiers (11 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 79; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low23% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.028; most funded group hard.national_security.maritime_power
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 15% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-001.e3-ken-random. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Kenya (KEN)
Position: The 2026 ratings of the National Capability Index
Method: Random. Five actions a round, each a random open group and mode and a random chunk of income.
Scenario: The shock and upside library, drawn at random each round
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 20 rounds, 2026 to 2046
Simulations: 100 seeds, 1 to 100. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 143 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Improvement cycle (cycle-001), cycle 1 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 6.4 seconds in all; 951 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.