A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-001.e3-ken-random

Simulation 10

Kenya, random, 20 years, seed 10: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 7.18 at the 2026 position, 4.97 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 4 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 10

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 32 (median simulation), 89 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 4.97 (−2.21); From 7.18
Rank by index: 119; From 79
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 4 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the random method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Build Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 3 Partner Air Power 3 Partner Energy Technologies 3 Partner Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 1 Build Space Operations 3	Breadbasket failure	6.13 −1.051
2028	Buy Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 7 Build Resource Infrastructure 3 Buy Financial Regulation & Integrity 3 Buy Intelligence & Assessment 1 Build Financial System Depth & Access 3		6.13 +0.001
2029	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 1 Buy Financial Stability & Crisis Management 1 Build Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 Buy Economic Leverage & Dependence 6 Partner Health System Capability 1		6.11 −0.015
2030	Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 1 Partner Artificial Intelligence 1 Buy Global Value Chain Position 2 Partner Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 6 Buy Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 1	Hybrid coercion	5.87 −0.247
2031	Build Social Infrastructure 6 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 2 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 2		5.86 −0.010
2032	Build Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 1 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 6 Build Land Power 6 Buy Internal Security & Order 1 Partner Innovation & Commercialisation 6		5.84 −0.017
2033	Build Social Infrastructure 6 Partner Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 Build Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 1 Partner Financial Infrastructure 6 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 1		5.84 +0.001
2034	Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2 Build Global Value Chain Position 2 Buy Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 1 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 1 Build Foundational Education 1		5.84 +0.003
2035	Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 2 Buy Financial Regulation & Integrity 6 Buy Quantum Technologies 1 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 2 Build Intelligence & Assessment 2	AI labour shock	5.72 −0.127
2036	Buy Industrial & Sectoral Base 6 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 6 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 1 Buy Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6		5.60 −0.116
2037	Build Land Power 1 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 1 Buy Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 1 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 1		5.47 −0.125
2038	Build Health System Capability 1 Partner Advanced Education 2 Partner Space Operations 2 Buy Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 1 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 1		5.47 −0.002
2039	Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 1 Partner Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 5 Buy Advanced Manufacturing 5 Buy Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5 Build Artificial Intelligence 2		5.48 +0.004
2040	Build Digital & Services Trade 5 Buy Energy Technologies 1 Partner Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 1 Partner Energy Infrastructure 5		5.48 +0.007
2041	Build Digital & Services Trade 2 Partner Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 Build Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 1 Partner Land Power 1 Buy Technical & Vocational Skills 2		5.49 +0.008
2042	Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 5 Build Advanced Education 5 Build Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 2 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5 Build Global Value Chain Position 5		5.50 +0.007
2043	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 2 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 5 Partner Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 1 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 1 Partner Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5	AI labour shock	5.33 −0.173
2044	Buy Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 1 Buy Energy Infrastructure 5 Buy Financial Regulation & Integrity 1 Partner Digital & Services Trade 2 Partner Technical & Vocational Skills 5		5.15 −0.173
2045	Buy Financial System Depth & Access 2 Buy Export Capability & Sophistication 1 Buy Advanced Education 2 Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 2		4.97 −0.180
2046	Partner Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 4 Partner Resource Infrastructure 2 Build Advanced Education 2 Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 1		4.97 −0.004

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	14	16	16	16
Strategic Infrastructure	7	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
National Security	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Human Capital	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	15
Information & Influence	9	11	11	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13
Governance & Integrity	14	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Financial Strength	17	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	23	23
Production & Innovation	14	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	18	18	18	18
Trade & Investment	12	13	13	13	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	16	16	16

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.366	−26.7
No shocks	+1.510	+106.5
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.007	−0.5
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.006	−0.5
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.008	−0.6
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.007	−0.6
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.008	−0.6
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.776	+54.8
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.550	+38.8
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.505	+35.0

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−1.07	−0.07
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	6.83	6.29	−0.54	+0.93	−1.34	−0.13
Land Power	National Security	7.25	6.29	−0.96	+0.32	−0.96	−0.32
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	7.00	6.04	−0.96	+0.62	−1.48	−0.09
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	6.33	5.36	−0.97	+0.25	−0.97	−0.24
Air Power	National Security	4.75	3.76	−0.99	+0.19	−1.00	−0.18
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.00	0.00	−1.00	+0.36	−1.98	−0.05
Space Operations	National Security	2.33	1.32	−1.01	+0.27	−1.03	−0.25
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	2.43	1.32	−1.11	+1.12	−2.15	−0.08
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	2.33	1.10	−1.23	0.00	−1.03	−0.20
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	1.25	0.00	−1.25	+0.08	−2.02	−0.08
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	9.00	7.72	−1.28	+0.13	−1.32	−0.09
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.33	0.00	−1.33	0.00	−1.97	−0.05
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	9.67	8.33	−1.34	+0.06	−1.31	−0.10
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	8.00	6.63	−1.37	0.00	−0.95	−0.42
Maritime Power	National Security	3.50	2.00	−1.50	0.00	−1.41	−0.09
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.00	6.50	−1.50	0.00	−1.35	−0.14
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	4.67	3.14	−1.53	0.00	−1.39	−0.15
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	1.60	0.05	−1.55	+0.75	−2.18	−0.13
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.20	3.62	−1.58	+0.36	−1.84	−0.10
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	7.33	5.75	−1.58	+0.24	−1.47	−0.35
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	9.25	7.60	−1.65	+0.75	−2.21	−0.19
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	11.00	9.34	−1.66	+0.30	−1.81	−0.15
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	4.00	2.26	−1.74	+0.42	−2.11	−0.05
Health System Capability	Human Capital	8.33	6.57	−1.76	+0.12	−1.45	−0.43
Advanced Education	Human Capital	7.67	5.90	−1.77	+0.64	−2.18	−0.22
Foundational Education	Human Capital	8.75	6.96	−1.79	+0.08	−1.44	−0.44
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.00	9.19	−1.81	+0.43	−1.78	−0.47
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	8.00	6.15	−1.85	0.00	−1.54	−0.31
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.00	4.10	−1.90	+0.18	−1.88	−0.20
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	7.00	5.10	−1.90	+0.37	−1.87	−0.40
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.00	6.09	−1.91	+0.06	−1.93	−0.04
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	7.60	5.68	−1.92	+0.85	−2.54	−0.24
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.67	2.69	−1.98	+0.38	−1.92	−0.43
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	9.40	7.41	−1.99	+0.25	−2.18	−0.06
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	6.00	3.96	−2.04	+0.49	−2.33	−0.20
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.09	6.02	−2.07	+0.54	−1.83	−0.78
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.25	1.16	−2.09	0.00	−1.92	−0.17
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	7.50	5.40	−2.10	+0.54	−2.30	−0.33
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	7.00	4.88	−2.12	+0.20	−2.21	−0.11
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	6.33	4.20	−2.13	+1.01	−2.81	−0.33
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.00	5.86	−2.14	+0.20	−2.24	−0.11
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	7.67	5.48	−2.19	+0.09	−2.15	−0.13
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.50	4.30	−2.20	+0.45	−2.34	−0.32
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	7.75	5.52	−2.23	+0.47	−2.31	−0.39
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.25	6.98	−2.27	0.00	−1.81	−0.46
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.29	8.02	−2.27	+0.05	−2.10	−0.22
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	3.60	1.33	−2.27	+0.39	−2.52	−0.13
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.00	6.61	−2.39	+0.14	−2.25	−0.27
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	8.67	6.27	−2.40	+0.70	−2.71	−0.39
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	7.50	5.09	−2.41	0.00	−2.19	−0.22
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	8.00	5.56	−2.44	0.00	−2.28	−0.15
Population Health	Human Capital	7.00	4.53	−2.47	0.00	−2.23	−0.24
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	9.50	6.99	−2.51	0.00	−2.48	−0.03
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	7.67	5.08	−2.59	+0.36	−2.75	−0.21
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.25	4.64	−2.61	+0.91	−3.23	−0.29
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	7.50	4.78	−2.72	0.00	−2.30	−0.42
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	4.50	1.76	−2.74	+0.19	−2.63	−0.30
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	6.67	3.92	−2.75	+0.46	−2.83	−0.37
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	8.50	5.73	−2.77	0.00	−2.18	−0.59
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	9.80	6.99	−2.81	+0.05	−2.61	−0.25
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.00	6.17	−2.83	+0.23	−2.84	−0.22
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	9.75	6.80	−2.95	0.00	−2.68	−0.27
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	10.00	6.84	−3.16	+0.49	−3.27	−0.39
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.33	2.11	−3.22	+0.24	−2.95	−0.51
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.00	3.71	−3.29	0.00	−2.90	−0.39
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.25	4.91	−3.34	+0.12	−2.86	−0.61
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	9.50	6.12	−3.38	+0.76	−3.87	−0.27
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	6.75	3.09	−3.66	0.00	−3.37	−0.29
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	11.00	7.25	−3.75	+0.17	−3.51	−0.42
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	7.67	3.76	−3.91	+0.16	−3.93	−0.13
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	9.50	5.29	−4.21	+0.08	−3.95	−0.34
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	8.75	3.87	−4.88	0.00	−4.43	−0.45

Seed 10 of experiment cycle-001.e3-ken-random. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.