South Korea, evolution strategy, 20 years
5 simulations of 20 rounds from the 2026 position. South Korea decides by the evolution strategy (cma-es) method; the shock and upside library, drawn at random each round.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–5 · elasticity sampled within each bracket
Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this
Outcome across simulations
The median at 2046, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 5 simulations under it.
- Capability index
- 18.25 (+2.24)
- From 16.00; 17.57 to 18.39
- Rank by index
- 1
- From 6; 1 to 2
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2; 6 to 7
- Tier rank
- 2
- From 7; 2 to 2
Capability index by round
Rank by index, by round
| Objective | 2026 | 10th percentile | Median | 90th percentile | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capability indexprimary | 16.00 | 17.57 | 18.25 | 18.39 | higher |
| Rank by index | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | lower |
| Tier rank | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | lower |
| Domains at Tier 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 7 | higher |
| Score sum | 1165.8 | 1264.8 | 1317.0 | 1328.7 | higher |
| Goal-weighted score | 1165.8 | 1264.8 | 1317.0 | 1328.7 | higher |
| Resilient score | 1165.8 | 1301.3 (mean score sum over the simulations) | higher | ||
The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.
Credits
What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 89 per cent, buy took 7 per cent, partner took 4 per cent of the 3,024 credits a simulation spent on actions.
Simulations
Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 5 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.
Events
How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.
Event | Kind | Simulations | Mean round | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | Shock | 40 per cent | 13.7 | −29.5 |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Shock | 40 per cent | 2.0 | −13.4 |
| AI labour shock S08 | Shock | 40 per cent | 3.5 | −21.9 |
| Market access opening S12 | Upside | 40 per cent | 5.0 | +15.1 |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 | Upside | 40 per cent | 12.5 | +15.3 |
| Automated discovery step S17 | Upside | 40 per cent | 16.5 | +40.1 |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Shock | 20 per cent | 7.0 | −13.5 |
| Core disaster S07 | Shock | 20 per cent | 17.0 | −15.1 |
| Middle East settlement S14 | Upside | 20 per cent | 9.5 | +15.5 |
| Clean power threshold S15 | Upside | 20 per cent | 16.0 | +31.4 |
| Chronic disease advance S19 | Upside | 20 per cent | 6.0 | +15.5 |
Groups across simulations
Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Levels invested | Credits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 17.57 14.31 to 18.14 | +5.82 | 4.80 | 106 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 19.98 19.07 to 19.99 | +4.98 | 3.99 | 104 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 19.73 19.27 to 19.97 | +4.73 | 4.39 | 116 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 18.78 18.48 to 19.35 | +4.58 | 4.76 | 123 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.07 18.80 to 19.82 | +4.57 | 4.93 | 88 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 19.85 to 20.00 | +4.50 | 6.36 | 79 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.91 18.56 to 19.53 | +4.41 | 4.46 | 89 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 20.00 to 20.00 | +4.00 | 3.77 | 95 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 19.30 18.70 to 19.66 | +3.97 | 3.41 | 91 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.97 19.85 to 20.00 | +3.97 | 4.96 | 64 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 19.60 19.38 to 19.98 | +3.93 | 3.64 | 99 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 19.25 18.23 to 19.35 | +3.92 | 3.87 | 73 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 19.74 18.59 to 19.95 | +3.74 | 3.15 | 85 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 19.19 18.05 to 19.65 | +3.69 | 3.63 | 88 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.93 19.59 to 20.00 | +3.60 | 3.55 | 97 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 19.56 18.78 to 19.94 | +3.36 | 2.94 | 79 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 18.29 17.64 to 18.51 | +3.29 | 3.10 | 67 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 19.59 19.28 to 19.95 | +3.09 | 3.32 | 135 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.06 18.96 to 19.68 | +3.06 | 3.06 | 46 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.67 18.44 to 19.12 | +3.00 | 3.25 | 66 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 18.64 17.89 to 19.94 | +2.89 | 3.05 | 75 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.34 18.40 to 19.56 | +2.84 | 2.58 | 63 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.78 19.71 to 20.00 | +2.78 | 2.82 | 66 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 19.96 19.10 to 20.00 | +2.76 | 1.71 | 61 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.65 19.18 to 19.99 | +2.65 | 2.64 | 45 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 18.87 18.23 to 19.37 | +2.54 | 2.50 | 65 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 18.86 18.01 to 18.93 | +2.53 | 1.95 | 39 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.75 18.26 to 19.23 | +2.50 | 2.74 | 54 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 18.98 17.70 to 19.60 | +2.48 | 1.97 | 40 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 18.13 17.99 to 19.05 | +2.38 | 2.36 | 53 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.85 18.40 to 19.18 | +2.35 | 2.38 | 60 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 18.87 18.40 to 19.66 | +2.20 | 2.32 | 61 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 18.38 16.63 to 19.12 | +2.05 | 1.48 | 47 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 18.16 14.63 to 18.60 | +2.03 | 0.72 | 25 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.61 18.14 to 19.74 | +1.81 | 2.05 | 47 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 18.46 18.40 to 19.23 | +1.79 | 2.04 | 57 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.79 17.99 to 18.92 | +1.79 | 1.58 | 33 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 17.72 16.57 to 18.69 | +1.72 | 1.45 | 27 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 18.64 18.25 to 19.78 | +1.64 | 1.92 | 60 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.22 16.83 to 19.73 | +1.62 | 1.64 | 34 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.57 18.33 to 19.37 | +1.57 | 1.39 | 27 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.27 16.71 to 18.52 | +1.27 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.73 15.40 to 18.21 | +1.23 | 0.18 | 7 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 18.48 18.01 to 18.82 | +1.23 | 0.79 | 20 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.21 18.12 to 19.49 | +1.21 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 16.98 16.01 to 17.47 | +1.18 | 0.95 | 20 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.68 17.79 to 19.02 | +1.18 | 1.39 | 33 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.24 16.42 to 17.89 | +1.04 | 0.30 | 7 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 19.40 17.88 to 19.52 | +1.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.92 18.55 to 19.11 | +0.92 | 0.54 | 13 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.18 17.80 to 18.96 | +0.85 | 1.22 | 27 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.84 18.14 to 19.31 | +0.84 | 0.51 | 13 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.58 16.47 to 17.71 | +0.78 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.97 14.45 to 15.14 | +0.72 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.32 16.51 to 17.70 | +0.72 | 0.29 | 7 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.21 16.46 to 18.08 | +0.71 | 0.59 | 14 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.26 16.65 to 17.46 | +0.55 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 16.22 14.93 to 16.46 | +0.47 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 17.14 16.68 to 17.70 | +0.47 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.96 17.37 to 18.09 | +0.46 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 15.01 14.36 to 15.77 | +0.34 | 0.24 | 7 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 16.28 15.73 to 16.68 | +0.28 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.57 15.68 to 16.84 | +0.24 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 17.22 16.67 to 17.61 | +0.22 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.94 15.77 to 17.21 | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 15.46 13.52 to 15.77 | +0.13 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 16.09 13.99 to 16.32 | +0.09 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 13.76 13.37 to 14.10 | +0.09 | 0.30 | 7 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.56 15.42 to 16.86 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.88 14.76 to 16.49 | +0.05 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 16.04 14.15 to 16.28 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 16.01 14.87 to 16.28 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.66 1.45 to 4.14 | −0.01 | 0.62 | 21 |
The optimisation
Capability index at 2046, against the greedy experiment with the same seeds and, where one exists, the tree search.
- Capability index, median
- 18.25
- From 16.00 at the 2026 position; 17.57 to 18.39
- Regret against greedy
- +0.230
- ahead in 100% of seeds; 10th to 90th +0.108 to +0.319
- Against the tree search
- +0.205
- ahead in 80% of seeds
- Hold-out gain
- +0.2133
- of the best plan over the greedy start, mean over optimisations
- Objective
- Capability index at the horizon (higher is better)
- Encoding
- Decision rule: 26 numbers over the full horizon
- Mode
- Open-loop: optimised once from the position over 20 rounds, then played with the realised shocks
- Budget
- population 13; up to 100 generations; stagnation stop at 30. Ran a mean of 91 generations (3 on budget, 2 on stagnation)
- Shock seeds
- 8 a generation, every plan of the generation on the same seeds (common random numbers), redrawn each generation; 8 fixed hold-out seeds for the curve. Plans scored under the stochastic scenario.
- Start and limits
- Started from the greedy plan, encoded; sigma 0.3; a single action capped at the large chunk (5 per cent of income), as greedy
- Pairs
- Greedy: the same seeds. Tree search: m2b-kor-mcts-index (mcts-m2b), the same nation, horizon, objective and seeds.
- Versions
- CMA-ES 0.1.0, the cma package 4.5.0
- Runtime
- 53.9 seconds of optimisation a simulation
Compare with another CMA-ES experiment · JSON · The method · The tree-search pair
Capability index by round
The median across the 5 simulations over the band from the 10th to the 90th percentile, with the greedy experiment's median as the dashed reference. Under the axis, the share of simulations a shock struck in each round.
Tree search, median and 10th to 90th percentileGreedy, median, same seeds
Regret against greedy
The plan's objective minus greedy's, paired by seed, by round: the median over the 10th-to-90th band. Positive is better for CMA-ES whatever the objective.
Convergence
The one optimisation, averaged over simulations: the population's best and mean fitness by generation, the hold-out fitness of the best plan so far (on fixed seeds, so it only rises), and sigma, the step size, on the right axis.
Best of the populationMean of the populationHold-out fitness of the best plan so farSigma (right axis)
Planned against realised
The credits the plan intended for each round, by domain, beside the credits played after shocks. 81% of realised actions differed from the plan.
Planned
Credits the first plan intended, by round and domain, averaged over simulations.
Realised
Credits played after shocks. Under the axis, the share of simulations a shock struck in each round.
- Critical Technology
- Strategic Infrastructure
- National Security
- Human Capital
- Information & Influence
- Governance & Integrity
- Financial Strength
- Production & Innovation
- Trade & Investment
Allocation stream
Credits spent on actions by round, stacked by domain or by mode, averaged over simulations.
Tier ribbon
For each domain, the share of simulations in each tier by round.
- Critical Technology
- Strategic Infrastructure
- National Security
- Human Capital
- Information & Influence
- Governance & Integrity
- Financial Strength
- Production & Innovation
- Trade & Investment
Tier 1Tier 2Tier 3Tier 4 or below2026 to 2046, left to right
Three methods compared
CMA-ES, the tree search and greedy on the same nation and objective: the regret curves overlaid, the end states by domain on one radar, and how alike their allocations are, round by round.
Regret curves, overlaid
CMA-ES minus greedy (blue) and CMA-ES minus the tree search (violet), the median paired difference in capability index by round, with the 10th-to-90th band.
End states by domain
The nine domain means at the horizon (the median over simulations) under each method, and the position.
PositionCMA-ESTree searchGreedy
Allocation similarity by round
Cosine similarity of the credits by group and mode, averaged over simulations: 1 is the same allocation, 0 none in common. Darker is more alike.
| Pair | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMA-ES · greedy | 0.22 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| CMA-ES · tree search | 0.24 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Tree search · greedy | 0.42 |
Attribution
From the counterfactual probes on the first 2 seeds: the position, plus the worth of the five largest actions, minus the cost of the three largest shocks, plus everything else, to the horizon. In capability index units.
- 20262026 16.002
- D12045 buy Space Operations (34 credits) +0.0182
- D22045 partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics (34 credits) +0.0257
- D32045 partner Digital & Services Trade (34 credits) +0.0283
- D42045 buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies (34 credits) +0.0177
- D52045 buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power (34 credits) +0.0344
- S12039 S03 (-39.3 points) −0.4036
- S22038 S03 (-26.0 points) −0.2664
- S32033 S04 (-13.5 points) −0.1928
- OtherEverything else +2.3359
- 20462046 17.599
Fragility at the horizon
Groups of the representative simulation's end state within half a point of changing their domain's tier.
No group sits within half a point of changing its domain's tier at the horizon.
The plan, round by round
The representative simulation (seed 4, nearest the median at the horizon): the actions played each round and what the plan intended for them.
| Group | Mode | Played (credits) | Planned | Differs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | build | 30.4 | 30.4 | no |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | build | 30.3 | 30.3 | no |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | build | 30.2 | 30.2 | no |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | build | 30.2 | 30.2 | no |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | build | 30.2 | 30.2 | no |
Report, with the optimisation's section
Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator, with the planner's own section at the end. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.
Settings and versions
Experiment cmaes-c1.c1-kor-cmaes-rule. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.
- Nation
- South Korea (KOR)
- Position
- The 2026 ratings of the National Capability Index
- Method
- Evolution strategy (CMA-ES). An evolution strategy (CMA-ES) over a whole plan, scored by playing it through the engine under shared shock seeds: open-loop (optimised once from the position) or receding-horizon (re-optimised every round).
- Scenario
- The shock and upside library, drawn at random each round
- Objective
- Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
- Horizon
- 20 rounds, 2026 to 2046
- Simulations
- 5 seeds, 1 to 5. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
- Graph elasticities
- Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
- Income
- Base credits 1,014.1 a round, moving with the economic groups
- Versions
- Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
- Batch
- CMA-ES C1, encoding comparison (cmaes-c1)
- Runtime
- 382.5 seconds in all; 2703156 microseconds a round
- Not a forecast
- Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
- Structural parameters
- Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
- Other nations are frozen
- One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
- Starting depth and mode are defaults
- The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
- Credits are calibrated, not measured
- Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.