Median simulation · cmaes-c1.c1-kor-cmaes-rule

Simulation 4

South Korea, evolution strategy, 20 years, seed 4: median simulation of the experiment's 5. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 18.25 in 2046; 85 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 4

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 1 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 3 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 18.25 (+2.24); From 16.00
Rank by index: 1; From 6
Domains at Tier 1: 7; From 2
Events: 1 shock; 3 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the evolution strategy (cma-es) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 30 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 30 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 30 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 30 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 30		16.02 +0.021
2028	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 30 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 30 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 30 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 30 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 30		16.07 +0.042
2029	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 31 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 30 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 30 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 30 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 30		16.13 +0.062
2030	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 31 Build Economic Output & Productivity 31 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 31 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 31 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 31	AI labour shockMarket access opening	16.20 +0.070
2031	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 31 Build Economic Output & Productivity 31 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 31 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 31 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 31		16.27 +0.069
2032	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 29 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 29 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 29 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 29 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 28	Chronic disease advance	16.39 +0.124
2033	Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 29 Build Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 29 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 29 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 29 Build Digital & AI Competence 29		16.54 +0.147
2034	Build Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 35 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 35 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 35 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 34 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 34		16.74 +0.199
2035	Build Advanced Education 35 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 35 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 35 Build Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 35 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 35		16.99 +0.251
2036	Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 35 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 35 Build Financial System Depth & Access 35 Build Advanced Education 35 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 34		17.18 +0.189
2037	Build Financial Infrastructure 35 Build Internal Security & Order 35 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 35 Build Labour & Employment 35 Build Financial System Depth & Access 35		17.30 +0.119
2038	Build Internal Security & Order 33 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 33 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 33 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 33 Build Labour & Employment 33		17.42 +0.120
2039	Build Internal Security & Order 34 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 34 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 34 Build Information Environment & Strategic Communication 34 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 33		17.54 +0.125
2040	Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 34 Build Information Environment & Strategic Communication 34 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 34 Build Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 34 Build Resource Infrastructure 34		17.68 +0.140
2041	Build Resource Infrastructure 34 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 34 Build Digital & Services Trade 34 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 34 Build Economic Leverage & Dependence 34		17.83 +0.143
2042	Build Resource Infrastructure 34 Build Diaspora & Global Communities 34 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 34 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 34 Build Economic Leverage & Dependence 34		17.98 +0.159
2043	Build Diaspora & Global Communities 34 Build Resource Infrastructure 34 Build Energy Infrastructure 34 Build Global Value Chain Position 34 Build Transport Infrastructure 33		18.10 +0.116
2044	No actions		18.13 +0.032
2045	No actions		18.11 −0.029
2046	No actions	Automated discovery step	18.25 +0.140

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Human Capital	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	4	3	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	5	4	4	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.75	18.19	+6.44	+5.93	−0.13	+0.47	+0.17
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	14.50	19.91	+5.41	+6.10	−0.20	+0.09	+0.43
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.50	19.90	+5.40	+5.42	−0.20	+0.09	+0.32
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.00	20.00	+5.00	+4.80	−0.06	+0.60	+0.49
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	14.20	18.78	+4.58	+4.09	−0.14	+0.23	+0.39
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.50	20.00	+4.50	+7.19	−0.10	+0.84	+0.07
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	15.00	19.41	+4.41	+3.57	−0.06	+0.61	+0.28
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	15.33	19.69	+4.36	+3.53	−0.06	+0.61	+0.28
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	15.67	20.00	+4.33	+3.74	−0.06	+0.60	+0.38
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	15.75	19.93	+4.18	+3.74	−0.13	+0.24	+0.33
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+4.63	−0.10	+0.39	+0.07
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+3.52	−0.10	+0.77	+0.55
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.00	19.94	+3.94	+3.34	−0.06	+0.47	+0.20
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	19.25	+3.92	+3.44	−0.19	+0.28	+0.39
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	15.75	19.50	+3.75	+2.98	−0.20	+0.33	+0.64
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	16.33	20.00	+3.67	+3.32	−0.06	+1.24	+0.07
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	18.53	+3.53	+3.31	−0.18	+0.06	+0.34
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	16.50	20.00	+3.50	+2.94	−0.13	+0.30	+0.57
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.20	19.56	+3.36	+2.37	−0.06	+0.61	+0.45
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	15.67	18.95	+3.28	+3.32	−0.20	−0.18	+0.33
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	16.00	19.04	+3.04	+2.73	−0.21	+0.10	+0.43
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	16.33	19.34	+3.01	+2.54	−0.13	+0.24	+0.35
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	20.00	+3.00	+2.80	−0.10	+0.39	+0.13
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	15.50	18.39	+2.89	+2.95	−0.19	+0.10	+0.03
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.50	19.34	+2.84	+2.50	−0.19	+0.34	+0.20
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.20	20.00	+2.80	+1.77	−0.06	+1.03	+0.53
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	16.67	19.44	+2.77	+2.46	−0.20	+0.34	+0.17
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.33	19.03	+2.70	+1.97	−0.15	+0.47	+0.41
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	16.33	18.86	+2.53	+1.51	−0.19	+0.53	+0.68
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	19.00	+2.50	+1.66	−0.15	+0.47	+0.52
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.00	19.45	+2.45	+2.05	−0.13	+0.25	+0.28
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	17.00	19.26	+2.26	+1.76	−0.10	+0.39	+0.20
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	18.16	+2.03	+1.04	−0.14	+0.72	+0.40
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	16.25	18.21	+1.96	+1.80	−0.18	+0.21	+0.13
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	18.38	+1.88	+0.92	−0.14	+0.73	+0.38
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	17.00	18.79	+1.79	+1.41	−0.19	+0.28	+0.28
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	16.67	18.45	+1.78	+1.22	−0.12	+0.24	+0.44
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	16.50	18.22	+1.72	+1.38	−0.18	+0.34	+0.19
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	16.80	18.48	+1.68	+1.48	−0.20	+0.10	+0.29
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	18.50	+1.50	0.00	−0.14	+0.62	+1.03
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	17.33	18.77	+1.44	+1.26	−0.19	+0.28	+0.09
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	18.00	19.39	+1.39	0.00	−0.20	+0.54	+1.04
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.00	18.28	+1.28	0.00	−0.19	+0.54	+0.93
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.67	17.85	+1.18	0.00	−0.09	+0.86	+0.41
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	16.20	17.24	+1.04	0.00	−0.30	+0.85	+0.49
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	18.40	19.40	+1.00	0.00	−0.15	+0.48	+0.67
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.80	17.74	+0.94	0.00	−0.14	+0.47	+0.61
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	14.25	15.17	+0.92	0.00	−0.26	+0.35	+0.84
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.00	18.84	+0.84	0.00	−0.23	+0.82	+0.24
Foundational Education	Human Capital	17.25	17.98	+0.73	0.00	−0.09	+0.57	+0.25
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	16.73	+0.73	0.00	−0.06	+0.57	+0.22
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.50	18.23	+0.73	0.00	−0.19	+0.54	+0.38
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	17.00	17.65	+0.65	0.00	−0.09	+0.57	+0.16
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	17.16	+0.56	0.00	−0.30	+0.36	+0.50
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.71	17.26	+0.55	0.00	−0.30	+0.56	+0.29
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	17.50	17.99	+0.49	0.00	−0.31	+0.56	+0.23
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.75	16.22	+0.47	0.00	−0.13	+0.47	+0.13
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	18.00	18.47	+0.47	0.00	−0.19	+0.34	+0.32
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.67	15.07	+0.40	0.00	−0.26	+0.35	+0.32
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	16.00	16.37	+0.37	0.00	−0.28	+0.29	+0.35
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.50	16.84	+0.34	0.00	−0.29	+0.56	+0.07
Air Power	National Security	16.75	17.04	+0.29	0.00	−0.24	+0.20	+0.32
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	16.33	16.57	+0.24	0.00	−0.23	+0.20	+0.27
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	15.33	15.56	+0.23	0.00	−0.22	+0.20	+0.24
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	16.83	+0.23	0.00	−0.29	+0.36	+0.16
Space Operations	National Security	13.67	13.88	+0.21	0.00	−0.20	+0.20	+0.20
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	15.80	16.00	+0.20	0.00	−0.28	+0.35	+0.12
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	1.67	1.86	+0.19	0.00	−0.01	+0.20	−0.01
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.83	15.96	+0.13	0.00	−0.23	+0.20	+0.15
Maritime Power	National Security	16.00	16.11	+0.11	0.00	−0.23	+0.20	+0.13
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	16.00	16.08	+0.08	0.00	−0.23	+0.20	+0.10
Land Power	National Security	16.50	16.56	+0.06	0.00	−0.23	+0.20	+0.09
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	16.00	16.04	+0.04	0.00	−0.23	+0.20	+0.06

Seed 4 of experiment cmaes-c1.c1-kor-cmaes-rule. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.