Simulation 3
South Korea, evolution strategy, 20 years, seed 3: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 5. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 18.47 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 3
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 4 (median simulation), 1 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 18.47 (+2.47)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 1
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 1 shock
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the evolution strategy (cma-es) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.02 +0.018 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.06 +0.037 | |
| 2029 |
| AI labour shock | 16.00 −0.053 |
| 2030 |
| 15.93 −0.071 | |
| 2031 |
| 15.87 −0.062 | |
| 2032 |
| Market access opening | 16.05 +0.181 |
| 2033 |
| 16.24 +0.185 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.44 +0.204 | |
| 2035 |
| 16.56 +0.117 | |
| 2036 |
| 16.66 +0.101 | |
| 2037 |
| 16.77 +0.116 | |
| 2038 |
| 16.93 +0.157 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.08 +0.145 | |
| 2040 |
| 17.24 +0.160 | |
| 2041 |
| 17.39 +0.156 | |
| 2042 |
| Clean power threshold | 17.61 +0.221 |
| 2043 |
| 17.83 +0.220 | |
| 2044 |
| 18.04 +0.203 | |
| 2045 |
| 18.24 +0.208 | |
| 2046 |
| 18.47 +0.225 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 17.57 | +5.82 | +4.55 | 0.00 | +1.00 | +0.27 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 19.54 | +5.34 | +4.99 | 0.00 | +0.13 | +0.21 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 20.00 | +5.00 | +4.71 | 0.00 | +0.51 | +0.30 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 19.76 | +4.76 | +3.57 | 0.00 | +0.51 | +0.69 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +6.94 | 0.00 | +0.68 | +0.01 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.91 | +4.41 | +4.26 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.26 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 19.72 | +4.22 | +4.30 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.03 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 19.95 | +4.20 | +3.75 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.30 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.62 | +4.12 | +3.79 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.43 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +5.16 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.05 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +3.81 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.35 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 19.30 | +3.97 | +3.31 | 0.00 | +0.51 | +0.16 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 19.60 | +3.93 | +3.01 | 0.00 | +0.50 | +0.42 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 19.15 | +3.82 | +3.18 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.45 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 20.00 | +3.80 | +3.56 | 0.00 | +0.50 | +0.29 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 19.74 | +3.74 | +3.33 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.14 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 20.00 | +3.67 | +4.22 | 0.00 | +1.01 | +0.03 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 20.00 | +3.50 | +3.11 | 0.00 | +0.52 | +0.37 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 18.49 | +3.49 | +3.28 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.39 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 20.00 | +3.40 | +3.28 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.08 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 19.87 | +3.37 | +3.03 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.62 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 19.19 | +3.19 | +3.30 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.17 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 19.97 | +3.17 | +2.99 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.28 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 19.81 | +3.14 | +2.68 | 0.00 | +0.29 | +0.17 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.61 | +3.11 | +2.68 | 0.00 | +0.28 | +0.14 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 19.39 | +3.06 | +2.51 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.40 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.67 | +3.00 | +3.31 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.26 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +2.26 | 0.00 | +0.65 | +0.23 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.99 | +2.99 | +2.98 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.12 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 19.23 | +2.98 | +2.96 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.12 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 19.63 | +2.96 | +2.40 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.40 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 18.91 | +2.91 | +2.68 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.34 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 19.18 | +2.85 | +2.15 | 0.00 | +0.52 | +0.18 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 20.00 | +2.80 | +1.64 | 0.00 | +1.03 | +0.51 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 18.96 | +2.63 | +1.71 | 0.00 | +0.44 | +0.48 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 18.60 | +2.47 | +0.99 | 0.00 | +1.25 | +0.22 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 18.13 | +2.38 | +1.62 | 0.00 | +0.28 | +0.48 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.85 | +2.35 | +1.44 | 0.00 | +0.78 | +0.13 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.25 | +2.25 | +1.25 | 0.00 | +0.44 | +0.56 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.13 | +2.13 | +2.11 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.12 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 18.21 | +2.01 | +1.52 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.32 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.01 | +2.01 | +1.58 | 0.00 | +0.20 | +0.23 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 17.73 | +1.93 | +1.63 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.13 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 18.35 | +1.85 | +1.47 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.21 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 19.10 | +1.77 | +1.45 | 0.00 | +0.20 | +0.12 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 18.98 | +1.73 | +1.27 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.26 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 19.23 | +1.73 | +1.01 | 0.00 | +0.45 | +0.27 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 16.23 | +1.56 | +1.20 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.21 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.27 | +1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.52 | +0.75 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.73 | +1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.77 | +0.47 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.21 | +1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.29 | +0.92 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 19.52 | +1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.53 | +0.60 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.09 | +1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.79 | +0.30 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.58 | +0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.66 | +0.32 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.66 | +0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.52 | +0.34 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 15.10 | +0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.70 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.79 | +0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.53 | +0.26 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.35 | +0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.47 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 16.32 | +0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.52 | +0.05 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 17.14 | +0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.28 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.96 | +0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.29 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.66 | +0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.33 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 16.28 | +0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.09 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 17.22 | +0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.94 | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.19 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 15.46 | +0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.60 | +0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 16.09 | +0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.09 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 13.76 | +0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.09 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.88 | +0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 16.04 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 16.01 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.66 | −0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 |
Seed 3 of experiment cmaes-c1.c1-kor-cmaes-rule. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.