A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cmaes-c1.c1-kor-cmaes-rule

Simulation 1

South Korea, evolution strategy, 20 years, seed 1: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 5. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.45 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 3 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 1

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 4 (median simulation), 3 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 17.45 (+1.44); From 16.00
Rank by index: 2; From 6
Domains at Tier 1: 7; From 2
Events: 3 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the evolution strategy (cma-es) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 30 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 30 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 30 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 30 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 30		16.02 +0.018
2028	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 30 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 30 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 30 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 30 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 30		16.06 +0.040
2029	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 31 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 31 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 31 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 31 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 31		16.14 +0.085
2030	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 31 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 31 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 31 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 31 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 31		16.22 +0.071
2031	Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 31 Build Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 31 Build Economic Output & Productivity 31 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 31 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 31		16.33 +0.116
2032	Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 32 Build Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 32 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 32 Build Economic Output & Productivity 32 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 31		16.47 +0.141
2033	Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 32 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 32 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 32 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 32 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 32	Hybrid coercion	16.43 −0.045
2034	Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 32 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 32 Build Internal Security & Order 32 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 32 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 32		16.56 +0.129
2035	Build Digital & AI Competence 33 Build Internal Security & Order 33 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 33 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 32 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 32		16.69 +0.132
2036	Build Advanced Education 33 Build Internal Security & Order 33 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 33 Build Digital & AI Competence 33 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 33		16.79 +0.097
2037	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 33 Build Advanced Education 33 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 33 Build Information Environment & Strategic Communication 33 Build Financial System Depth & Access 33		16.90 +0.111
2038	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 33 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 33 Build Labour & Employment 33 Build Financial Infrastructure 33 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 33	Regional war spillover	16.68 −0.219
2039	Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 33 Buy Technology Adoption & Diffusion 33 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 33 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 33 Build Foundational Education 33	Regional war spillover	16.31 −0.366
2040	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 32 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 32 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 32 Build Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 32 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 32	Water-efficient food leap	16.47 +0.156
2041	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 32 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 31 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 31 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 31 Build Resource Infrastructure 31		16.64 +0.168
2042	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 33 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 33 Build Resource Infrastructure 33 Build Financial System Depth & Access 33 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 33		16.80 +0.167
2043	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 33 Build Diaspora & Global Communities 33 Build Resource Infrastructure 33 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 33 Buy Artificial Intelligence 33		16.94 +0.135
2044	Partner Digital & Services Trade 34 Partner Global Value Chain Position 34 Build Labour & Employment 34 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 34 Build Diaspora & Global Communities 33		17.09 +0.151
2045	Buy Space Operations 34 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 34 Partner Digital & Services Trade 34 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 34 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 34		17.27 +0.185
2046	Buy Sensing, Timing & Navigation 33 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 33 Buy Structural Transformation & Complexity 33 Buy Industrial & Sectoral Base 33 Buy Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 33		17.45 +0.172

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	2	2	1	1	1	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1
National Security	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Human Capital	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	4	3	3	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	5	4	4	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	15.00	19.73	+4.73	+4.71	−0.31	+0.33
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	14.50	19.07	+4.57	+4.92	−0.61	+0.26
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.50	20.00	+4.50	+4.98	+0.17	+0.01
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	14.20	18.69	+4.49	+5.44	−1.04	+0.08
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.50	18.97	+4.47	+4.89	−0.61	+0.19
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+3.78	−0.07	+0.33
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	16.00	19.97	+3.97	+4.92	−0.06	+0.02
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	15.67	19.45	+3.78	+3.90	−0.50	+0.38
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.00	18.60	+3.60	+3.33	−0.34	+0.61
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	15.33	18.65	+3.32	+3.50	−0.34	+0.15
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	16.33	19.61	+3.28	+3.37	−0.11	+0.03
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.00	19.27	+3.27	+3.41	−0.33	+0.19
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	16.50	19.59	+3.09	+4.35	−1.72	+0.47
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	16.00	19.06	+3.06	+3.91	−0.97	+0.13
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	17.00	20.00	+3.00	+3.60	−0.08	+0.07
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	16.25	19.24	+2.99	+4.06	−1.14	+0.06
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.20	19.14	+2.94	+3.75	−1.01	+0.20
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.75	14.61	+2.86	+4.84	−2.06	+0.09
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	19.71	+2.71	+2.72	−0.09	+0.07
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	15.67	18.35	+2.68	+3.38	−0.94	+0.25
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	17.51	+2.51	+3.13	−0.92	+0.29
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	16.50	18.97	+2.47	+3.58	−0.90	−0.22
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	15.50	17.82	+2.32	+2.97	−0.69	+0.03
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	15.75	18.07	+2.32	+2.85	−0.92	+0.38
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	17.62	+2.29	+4.44	−2.37	+0.22
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	15.75	17.82	+2.07	+2.65	−0.81	+0.23
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.20	19.25	+2.05	+2.36	−0.71	+0.40
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	16.33	18.18	+1.85	+2.46	−0.81	+0.20
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	16.67	18.46	+1.79	+2.53	−0.90	+0.16
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.50	18.29	+1.79	+2.52	−0.81	+0.08
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	16.00	17.72	+1.72	+2.03	−0.41	+0.10
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	16.67	18.37	+1.70	+2.51	−0.90	+0.10
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	18.22	+1.62	+1.96	−0.53	+0.19
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.00	18.57	+1.57	+2.12	−1.14	+0.59
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.00	18.48	+1.48	+2.12	−0.76	+0.12
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.00	19.46	+1.46	+2.54	−1.20	+0.13
Foundational Education	Human Capital	17.25	18.58	+1.33	+1.34	−0.10	+0.10
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	16.33	17.51	+1.18	+1.93	−1.14	+0.38
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	15.80	16.98	+1.18	+1.57	−0.41	+0.01
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.50	18.68	+1.18	+3.51	−2.29	−0.03
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	18.00	19.13	+1.13	+1.48	−0.66	+0.31
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	16.80	17.92	+1.12	+1.59	−0.67	+0.20
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	17.55	+1.05	+1.75	−0.97	+0.28
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	17.00	17.88	+0.88	+1.95	−1.12	+0.05
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	17.33	18.18	+0.85	+1.94	−1.12	+0.04
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	16.20	16.41	+0.21	0.00	−0.18	+0.39
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	14.25	14.39	+0.14	0.00	−0.42	+0.57
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	18.00	18.01	+0.01	0.00	−0.88	+0.90
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.67	16.68	+0.01	0.00	−0.11	+0.12
Space Operations	National Security	13.67	13.67	0.00	+1.51	−1.39	−0.13
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	15.88	−0.12	0.00	−0.11	0.00
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.71	16.57	−0.14	0.00	−0.40	+0.26
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	17.00	16.84	−0.16	0.00	−0.11	−0.06
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	17.50	17.33	−0.17	0.00	−0.39	+0.22
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.50	16.21	−0.29	0.00	−0.40	+0.11
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	1.67	1.37	−0.30	0.00	−0.26	−0.03
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.80	16.46	−0.34	0.00	−0.75	+0.41
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.67	14.26	−0.41	0.00	−0.42	+0.01
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	16.55	−0.45	0.00	−0.97	+0.52
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	16.09	−0.51	0.00	−0.89	+0.37
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	18.40	17.68	−0.72	0.00	−0.95	+0.23
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.33	15.51	−0.82	0.00	−0.98	+0.16
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.75	14.91	−0.84	0.00	−0.77	−0.07
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	16.33	15.37	−0.96	0.00	−1.32	+0.37
Air Power	National Security	16.75	15.40	−1.35	0.00	−1.31	−0.04
Land Power	National Security	16.50	15.03	−1.47	0.00	−1.32	−0.15
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.83	14.32	−1.51	0.00	−1.61	+0.11
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	14.98	−1.52	0.00	−1.71	+0.19
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	16.00	14.39	−1.61	0.00	−1.61	0.00
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	14.22	−1.91	0.00	−2.19	+0.28
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	15.33	12.87	−2.46	0.00	−2.41	−0.05
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	16.00	13.52	−2.48	0.00	−2.38	−0.10
Maritime Power	National Security	16.00	13.23	−2.77	0.00	−2.66	−0.10

Seed 1 of experiment cmaes-c1.c1-kor-cmaes-rule. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.