Simulation 91
Brazil, hold, 20 years, seed 91: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 11.69 at the 2026 position, 11.74 in 2046; 0 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 91
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 95 (median simulation), 21 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 11.74 (+0.05)
- From 11.69
- Rank by index
- 30
- From 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 1 shock
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the hold method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | No actions | 11.69 0.000 | |
| 2028 | No actions | 11.69 0.000 | |
| 2029 | No actions | 11.69 0.000 | |
| 2030 | No actions | 11.69 0.000 | |
| 2031 | No actions | Chronic disease advance | 11.75 +0.056 |
| 2032 | No actions | 11.80 +0.056 | |
| 2033 | No actions | 11.86 +0.058 | |
| 2034 | No actions | Hybrid coercion | 11.66 −0.197 |
| 2035 | No actions | 11.72 +0.059 | |
| 2036 | No actions | 11.72 +0.001 | |
| 2037 | No actions | 11.72 +0.001 | |
| 2038 | No actions | 11.73 +0.001 | |
| 2039 | No actions | 11.73 0.000 | |
| 2040 | No actions | 11.73 +0.003 | |
| 2041 | No actions | 11.73 +0.002 | |
| 2042 | No actions | 11.73 +0.002 | |
| 2043 | No actions | 11.73 +0.001 | |
| 2044 | No actions | 11.73 +0.001 | |
| 2045 | No actions | 11.74 +0.001 | |
| 2046 | No actions | 11.74 0.000 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Governance & Integrity | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +0.844 | +59.1 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.453 | +31.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.301 | +21.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.243 | +17.4 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 13.00 | 13.84 | +0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.75 | +0.09 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 12.50 | 13.27 | +0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.75 | +0.03 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 12.60 | 13.25 | +0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.56 | +0.09 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 11.22 | +0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.54 | +0.01 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 13.00 | 13.46 | +0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.37 | +0.09 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 11.67 | 12.12 | +0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.37 | +0.08 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 11.25 | 11.69 | +0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.37 | +0.07 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 13.00 | 13.44 | +0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.37 | +0.07 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.25 | 13.67 | +0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.37 | +0.05 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 11.33 | 11.74 | +0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.37 | +0.04 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.33 | 14.74 | +0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.37 | +0.04 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.20 | 13.60 | +0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.36 | +0.04 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 14.07 | +0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.37 | +0.03 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 12.50 | 12.89 | +0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.37 | +0.02 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.50 | 10.88 | +0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.37 | 0.00 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 14.57 | +0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.37 | 0.00 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 10.67 | 11.04 | +0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.37 | 0.00 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.80 | 11.17 | +0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.37 | −0.01 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 9.55 | +0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.04 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 10.43 | 10.64 | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.03 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 12.00 | 12.21 | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.04 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.25 | 6.46 | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.04 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.80 | 10.01 | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.03 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.73 | 12.94 | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.00 | 14.20 | +0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 8.80 | 8.99 | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 9.52 | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.67 | 12.86 | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 8.43 | +0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 11.50 | 11.68 | +0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 5.50 | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 11.57 | +0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.07 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.20 | 12.25 | +0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.07 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 11.05 | +0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 12.00 | 12.02 | +0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 11.02 | +0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 11.51 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.01 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 11.67 | 11.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 12.33 | 12.32 | −0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.40 | 9.38 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.02 | 0.00 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 11.31 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 10.64 | −0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 11.97 | −0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.04 | 0.00 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 14.25 | 14.21 | −0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 11.63 | −0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.04 | 0.00 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 11.63 | −0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 14.45 | −0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | −0.06 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 11.95 | −0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.38 | 13.32 | −0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.10 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 15.66 | −0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.06 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.20 | 12.10 | −0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.06 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.50 | 12.38 | −0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.04 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 15.87 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.01 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 13.60 | 13.45 | −0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 14.09 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.80 | 13.63 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 9.83 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.04 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.25 | 14.06 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 9.80 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.67 | 12.42 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.15 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.43 | 13.12 | −0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.01 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.50 | 11.11 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.01 |
| Air Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.59 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | −0.01 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 7.33 | 6.92 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.01 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.33 | 5.91 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.01 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.00 | 13.57 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.07 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.57 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | −0.03 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 11.33 | 10.74 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.01 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 11.40 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.03 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.19 | −0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.02 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.00 | 10.18 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | −0.02 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 9.33 | 8.51 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.01 |
Seed 91 of experiment cycle-001.e3-bra-hold. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.