Simulation 87
Estonia, mirror a peer, 20 years, seed 87: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 11.49 at the 2026 position, 11.44 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 87
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 99 (median simulation), 28 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 11.44 (−0.05)
- From 11.49
- Rank by index
- 34
- From 33
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the mirror a peer (irl) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| Breadbasket failure | 11.26 −0.228 |
| 2028 |
| Trade bloc ruptureCore disaster | 10.94 −0.315 |
| 2029 |
| 10.84 −0.110 | |
| 2030 |
| 10.74 −0.096 | |
| 2031 |
| 10.81 +0.068 | |
| 2032 |
| 10.88 +0.078 | |
| 2033 |
| 10.96 +0.078 | |
| 2034 |
| 11.05 +0.084 | |
| 2035 |
| 11.12 +0.077 | |
| 2036 |
| 11.21 +0.088 | |
| 2037 |
| 11.27 +0.060 | |
| 2038 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 11.22 −0.055 |
| 2039 |
| 11.12 −0.098 | |
| 2040 |
| 11.04 −0.076 | |
| 2041 |
| 11.14 +0.097 | |
| 2042 |
| 11.22 +0.080 | |
| 2043 |
| 11.30 +0.081 | |
| 2044 |
| Breadbasket failureChronic disease advance | 11.20 −0.099 |
| 2045 |
| 11.30 +0.104 | |
| 2046 |
| 11.44 +0.133 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Governance & Integrity | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Trade & Investment | 6 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.904 | −128.9 | −0.35 |
| No shocks | +1.139 | +83.1 | +0.40 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.019 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.015 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.015 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.016 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.633 | +45.9 | +0.16 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.530 | +37.8 | +0.13 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.446 | +31.6 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.50 | 11.80 | +4.30 | +6.26 | 0.00 | −1.98 | +0.02 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.50 | 6.80 | +4.30 | +7.46 | 0.00 | −3.19 | +0.03 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.40 | 10.76 | +3.36 | +5.66 | 0.00 | −2.36 | +0.06 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 14.30 | +2.97 | +5.24 | 0.00 | −2.23 | −0.04 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.50 | 14.36 | +2.86 | +4.59 | 0.00 | −1.72 | −0.01 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.80 | 12.37 | +2.57 | +4.61 | 0.00 | −1.97 | −0.07 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.14 | 7.46 | +2.32 | +4.96 | 0.00 | −2.69 | +0.05 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.00 | 12.27 | +2.27 | +3.53 | 0.00 | −1.28 | +0.02 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.40 | 10.65 | +2.25 | +4.09 | 0.00 | −1.80 | −0.04 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 13.19 | +1.69 | +4.89 | 0.00 | −3.28 | +0.08 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 12.50 | 13.99 | +1.49 | +3.25 | 0.00 | −1.82 | +0.07 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 14.33 | +1.33 | +4.72 | 0.00 | −3.41 | +0.02 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 11.16 | +1.16 | +4.37 | 0.00 | −3.42 | +0.21 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.67 | 13.72 | +1.05 | +1.81 | 0.00 | −0.76 | 0.00 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.00 | 11.05 | +1.05 | +2.97 | 0.00 | −1.90 | −0.03 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.25 | 13.91 | +0.66 | +2.07 | 0.00 | −1.20 | −0.21 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 12.00 | 12.42 | +0.42 | +2.56 | 0.00 | −2.13 | −0.02 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.80 | 5.12 | +0.32 | +2.08 | 0.00 | −1.77 | +0.01 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 14.00 | 14.27 | +0.27 | +2.43 | 0.00 | −2.12 | −0.04 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.67 | 12.92 | +0.25 | +1.96 | 0.00 | −1.80 | +0.10 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 11.90 | +0.23 | +3.08 | 0.00 | −3.44 | +0.59 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.67 | 13.89 | +0.22 | +1.47 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.18 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 14.33 | 14.43 | +0.10 | +1.01 | 0.00 | −0.71 | −0.19 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.50 | 13.56 | +0.06 | +3.37 | 0.00 | −3.37 | +0.05 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.50 | 5.56 | +0.06 | +1.28 | 0.00 | −1.28 | +0.06 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.20 | −0.02 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.50 | 11.46 | −0.04 | +1.77 | 0.00 | −1.74 | −0.07 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.88 | 8.83 | −0.05 | +2.18 | 0.00 | −2.12 | −0.11 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.33 | 8.27 | −0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.22 | +1.16 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 13.54 | −0.13 | +1.69 | 0.00 | −1.74 | −0.08 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 14.14 | −0.36 | +1.45 | 0.00 | −1.74 | −0.07 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 11.23 | −0.44 | +2.97 | 0.00 | −3.45 | +0.04 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.80 | 11.36 | −0.44 | +1.76 | 0.00 | −2.04 | −0.17 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 12.43 | −0.57 | +2.77 | 0.00 | −3.15 | −0.20 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 14.25 | 13.66 | −0.59 | +1.24 | 0.00 | −1.72 | −0.12 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.00 | 12.25 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | −0.01 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.33 | 13.58 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.03 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.25 | 14.44 | −0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.05 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 15.51 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | −0.07 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.00 | 11.16 | −0.84 | +0.89 | 0.00 | −1.51 | −0.21 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.00 | 13.16 | −0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.76 | −0.08 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 15.15 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | −0.10 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 15.63 | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.18 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.75 | 13.85 | −0.90 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −2.37 | +0.18 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 14.58 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.76 | −0.15 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 16.50 | 15.54 | −0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.27 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.75 | 12.75 | −1.00 | +0.76 | 0.00 | −1.75 | −0.01 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.86 | 13.79 | −1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.01 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.40 | 16.30 | −1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.14 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.67 | 10.57 | −1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | −0.10 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 14.20 | 13.07 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | −0.19 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 7.11 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.23 | +0.09 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.67 | 13.53 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.10 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.67 | 7.52 | −1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | −0.10 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.80 | 9.64 | −1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.01 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.33 | 13.17 | −1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.15 | −0.01 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.00 | 10.83 | −1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | −0.17 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.75 | 5.57 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.29 | +0.11 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.91 | 12.72 | −1.19 | +0.51 | 0.00 | −1.38 | −0.32 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.50 | 3.29 | −1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.12 | −0.09 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.33 | 12.11 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.97 | −0.24 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.25 | 8.02 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.19 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.00 | 4.76 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | −0.14 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 14.75 | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.22 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.00 | 12.69 | −1.31 | +2.12 | 0.00 | −3.31 | −0.12 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.67 | 1.29 | −1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | −0.03 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.67 | 4.23 | −1.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.31 | −0.13 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.00 | 4.55 | −1.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | −0.35 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.00 | 2.49 | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.13 | −0.38 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.60 | 3.08 | −1.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.30 | −0.21 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 11.84 | −1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | −0.01 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 10.26 | −1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.69 | −0.05 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.75 | 13.00 | −1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.72 | −0.03 |
Seed 87 of experiment cycle-001.e3-est-mirror-peer. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.