Simulation 99
Estonia, mirror a peer, 20 years, seed 99: median simulation of the experiment's 100. Capability index 11.49 at the 2026 position, 12.52 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 2 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 99
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 87 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 28 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 12.52 (+1.03)
- From 11.49
- Rank by index
- 25
- From 33
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- From 0
- Events
- 2 shocks
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the mirror a peer (irl) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| Hybrid coercionMarket access opening | 11.16 −0.328 |
| 2028 |
| 11.33 +0.167 | |
| 2029 |
| 11.46 +0.130 | |
| 2030 |
| 11.56 +0.107 | |
| 2031 |
| 11.69 +0.128 | |
| 2032 |
| 11.75 +0.056 | |
| 2033 |
| 11.82 +0.076 | |
| 2034 |
| 11.94 +0.114 | |
| 2035 |
| 12.04 +0.102 | |
| 2036 |
| 12.13 +0.093 | |
| 2037 |
| 12.23 +0.100 | |
| 2038 |
| Hybrid coercion | 11.79 −0.445 |
| 2039 |
| 11.85 +0.065 | |
| 2040 |
| 11.94 +0.091 | |
| 2041 |
| Water-efficient food leap | 12.03 +0.087 |
| 2042 |
| 12.14 +0.106 | |
| 2043 |
| 12.25 +0.110 | |
| 2044 |
| 12.35 +0.100 | |
| 2045 |
| 12.45 +0.104 | |
| 2046 |
| 12.52 +0.069 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Production & Innovation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Trade & Investment | 6 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.904 | −128.9 | −0.35 |
| No shocks | +1.139 | +83.1 | +0.40 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.019 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.015 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.015 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.016 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.633 | +45.9 | +0.16 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.530 | +37.8 | +0.13 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.446 | +31.6 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.50 | 8.20 | +5.70 | +6.40 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.07 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.50 | 12.76 | +5.26 | +6.61 | 0.00 | −1.55 | +0.20 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.50 | 16.58 | +5.08 | +6.41 | 0.00 | −1.34 | +0.01 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 16.27 | +4.94 | +5.30 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.07 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.40 | 12.90 | +4.50 | +5.81 | 0.00 | −1.41 | +0.10 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.40 | 11.44 | +4.04 | +4.38 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.22 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.80 | 13.69 | +3.89 | +3.65 | 0.00 | +0.13 | +0.11 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 16.39 | +3.39 | +3.83 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.14 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.00 | 13.07 | +3.07 | +3.42 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.14 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 14.56 | +3.06 | +3.11 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.43 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.14 | 8.17 | +3.03 | +3.63 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.08 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.00 | 13.00 | +3.00 | +3.79 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.39 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 12.56 | +2.56 | +3.61 | 0.00 | −1.37 | +0.32 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.67 | 15.14 | +2.47 | +1.86 | 0.00 | +0.26 | +0.35 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 14.33 | 16.78 | +2.45 | +2.17 | 0.00 | +0.26 | +0.03 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 12.50 | 14.95 | +2.45 | +2.63 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.29 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 14.00 | 16.26 | +2.26 | +2.57 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.08 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 12.00 | 13.99 | +1.99 | +1.80 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.02 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.67 | 14.55 | +1.88 | +2.03 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.29 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.33 | 10.13 | +1.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +2.37 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.80 | 6.42 | +1.62 | +2.15 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.09 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.50 | 15.08 | +1.58 | +1.82 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.16 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.60 | 6.10 | +1.50 | +2.18 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.06 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.25 | 14.69 | +1.44 | +2.44 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.02 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 15.84 | +1.34 | +1.55 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +0.14 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.67 | 14.90 | +1.23 | +0.89 | 0.00 | +0.26 | +0.09 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 12.84 | +1.17 | +1.53 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.23 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.50 | 12.60 | +1.10 | +1.84 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.31 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.88 | 9.96 | +1.08 | +3.52 | 0.00 | −2.41 | −0.03 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 14.07 | +1.07 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −0.40 | −0.01 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 14.72 | +1.05 | +0.86 | 0.00 | +0.13 | +0.06 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.00 | 13.02 | +1.02 | +1.84 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.02 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.00 | 14.02 | +1.02 | +0.40 | 0.00 | +0.51 | +0.10 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 14.25 | 15.20 | +0.95 | +0.85 | 0.00 | +0.13 | −0.03 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.50 | 6.40 | +0.90 | +1.35 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.16 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.80 | 12.65 | +0.85 | +1.86 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.02 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.75 | 15.58 | +0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | +0.70 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 12.45 | +0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +1.36 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.75 | 14.47 | +0.72 | +0.91 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.24 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.75 | 7.25 | +0.50 | +1.35 | 0.00 | −1.16 | +0.32 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.00 | 14.47 | +0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.26 | +0.22 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 16.39 | +0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.26 | +0.14 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 16.86 | +0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.26 | +0.10 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.25 | 15.60 | +0.35 | +0.82 | 0.00 | −0.44 | −0.04 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.33 | 14.66 | +0.33 | +0.54 | 0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.33 | 14.58 | +0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.26 | −0.01 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 16.50 | 16.74 | +0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.26 | −0.02 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.67 | 2.88 | +0.21 | +0.90 | 0.00 | −0.64 | −0.04 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.00 | 14.18 | +0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | +0.05 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.86 | 15.01 | +0.15 | +2.27 | 0.00 | −2.31 | +0.20 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.79 | −0.03 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 14.20 | 14.15 | −0.05 | +1.26 | 0.00 | −1.17 | −0.14 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.91 | 13.70 | −0.21 | +0.79 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.04 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.00 | 3.77 | −0.23 | +1.75 | 0.00 | −1.69 | −0.28 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.75 | 14.51 | −0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.17 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.67 | 14.41 | −0.26 | +0.88 | 0.00 | −1.15 | +0.01 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 7.93 | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.25 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 15.87 | −0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.04 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 15.54 | −0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.03 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 14.98 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.09 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.40 | 16.58 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.01 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.67 | 4.59 | −1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.10 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 10.85 | −1.15 | +1.63 | 0.00 | −2.75 | −0.03 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.80 | 9.63 | −1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.10 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.33 | 11.99 | −1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.46 | +0.12 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.67 | 7.03 | −1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.57 | −0.07 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.25 | 7.52 | −1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.56 | −0.17 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.00 | 4.24 | −1.76 | +1.64 | 0.00 | −3.28 | −0.12 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.50 | 2.69 | −1.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.68 | −0.13 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.00 | 4.18 | −1.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | −0.18 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 10.86 | −2.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.69 | +0.05 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.67 | 8.63 | −3.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.00 | −0.04 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.00 | 8.85 | −3.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.98 | −0.17 |
Seed 99 of experiment cycle-001.e3-est-mirror-peer. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.