Median simulation · cycle-001.e3-gbr-greedy-marginal

Simulation 47

United Kingdom, greedy, 20 years, seed 47: median simulation of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 18.35 in 2046; 74 actions over 20 rounds and 3 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 47

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 18 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 68 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 18.35 (+1.90); From 16.45
Rank by index: 1; From 3
Domains at Tier 1: 7; From 2
Events: 3 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 48 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 48 Build Digital & AI Competence 48 Build Foundational Education 48 Build Advanced Education 48		16.49 +0.038
2028	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 48 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 48 Build Digital & AI Competence 48 Build Foundational Education 48 Build Advanced Education 48		16.57 +0.073
2029	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 48 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 48 Build Foundational Education 48 Buy Technology Adoption & Diffusion 48 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 48		16.73 +0.163
2030	Build Economic Output & Productivity 48 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 48 Partner Global Value Chain Position 48 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 48 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 48		16.89 +0.160
2031	Build Economic Output & Productivity 48 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 48 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 48 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 48 Build Early Childhood Development 48		17.06 +0.170
2032	Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 49 Build Early Childhood Development 49 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 49 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 49 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 49	Hybrid coercion	16.96 −0.094
2033	Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 51 Build Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 51 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 51 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 51 Build Early Childhood Development 51		17.09 +0.122
2034	Build Diaspora & Global Communities 52 Buy Artificial Intelligence 52 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 52 Partner Digital & Services Trade 52 Build Population Health 52		17.23 +0.147
2035	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 53 Build Labour & Employment 53 Buy Industrial & Sectoral Base 53 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 53 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 53		17.39 +0.162
2036	Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 53 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 53 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 53 Buy Advanced Manufacturing 53 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 53		17.52 +0.127
2037	Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 53 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 53 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 53 Build Health System Capability 53 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 53		17.66 +0.136
2038	Partner Space Technologies 53 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 53 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 53 Build Health System Capability 53 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 53		17.79 +0.133
2039	Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 53 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 53 Buy Energy Technologies 53 Partner Space Technologies 21 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 21	Legitimacy rupture	17.84 +0.046
2040	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 53 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 53	Chronic disease advance	18.05 +0.215
2041	Build Internal Security & Order 53 Buy Energy Infrastructure 53 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 11		18.20 +0.145
2042	Build Diaspora & Global Communities 56 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 11		18.34 +0.139
2043	Build Resource Infrastructure 23 Buy Robotics & Autonomous Systems 11		18.45 +0.120
2044	No actions		18.56 +0.105
2045	No actions	Trade bloc rupture	18.49 −0.071
2046	No actions		18.35 −0.137

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Human Capital	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−2.348	−167.0	−5.55
No shocks	+0.205	+14.8	+0.10
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.013	−1.0	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.021	−1.5	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.016	−1.2	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.017	−1.3	−0.05
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.013	−0.9	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.065	+4.0	+0.05
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.057	+3.5	+0.07
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.053	+3.4	+0.10

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	14.67	19.92	+5.25	+10.77	−0.08	+0.58	+0.19
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	14.67	19.75	+5.08	+4.99	−0.16	−0.04	+0.47
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.00	19.91	+4.91	+10.50	−0.08	+0.58	+0.22
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.50	18.06	+4.56	+4.98	−0.15	−0.32	+0.05
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.50	20.00	+4.50	+4.05	−0.05	+0.34	+0.48
Foundational Education	Human Capital	15.75	19.97	+4.22	+6.64	−0.08	+0.58	+0.36
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.20	19.20	+4.00	+3.98	−0.12	−0.15	+0.29
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.00	19.99	+3.99	+6.49	−0.08	+0.58	+0.45
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	15.25	19.15	+3.90	+4.01	−0.18	−0.20	+0.27
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	15.67	19.55	+3.88	+4.96	−0.18	−0.32	+0.86
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.00	19.77	+3.77	+3.94	−0.17	−0.03	+0.39
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	16.25	19.97	+3.72	+5.56	−0.05	+0.28	+0.22
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	16.33	19.95	+3.62	+3.87	−0.05	+0.27	+0.17
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.33	19.91	+3.58	+3.75	−0.08	+1.23	+0.12
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	16.50	19.90	+3.40	+5.68	−0.08	+0.58	+0.74
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	16.00	19.40	+3.40	+3.06	−0.19	−0.09	+0.62
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	19.37	+3.37	+2.20	−0.05	+0.57	+0.66
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.67	19.98	+3.31	+3.68	−0.05	+0.28	+0.40
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.00	16.98	+2.98	+2.83	−0.26	+0.26	+0.15
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.00	19.98	+2.98	+3.26	−0.05	+0.76	+0.38
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	19.92	+2.92	+3.70	−0.08	+0.57	+0.85
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	17.76	+2.76	+2.57	−0.15	−0.05	+0.39
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	19.74	+2.74	+3.60	−0.21	−0.17	+0.09
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	16.40	19.11	+2.71	+2.14	−0.12	+0.36	+0.34
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	18.02	+2.69	+2.83	−0.16	−0.31	+0.34
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	17.25	19.81	+2.56	+1.17	−0.12	+0.86	+0.69
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	16.00	18.54	+2.54	+2.68	−0.17	−0.31	+0.34
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	15.60	18.08	+2.48	+2.44	−0.28	+0.26	+0.06
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	19.05	+2.45	+2.52	−0.30	+0.09	+0.14
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	16.00	18.37	+2.37	+2.19	−0.05	+0.06	+0.16
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	17.33	19.63	+2.30	+2.36	−0.30	+0.27	+0.44
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.25	19.55	+2.30	+2.82	−0.18	−0.29	+0.32
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	15.60	17.89	+2.29	+1.88	−0.12	−0.16	+0.69
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	17.50	19.73	+2.23	+2.31	−0.17	−0.30	+0.58
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	17.50	19.67	+2.17	+2.21	−0.18	−0.13	+0.43
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	17.67	19.84	+2.17	+1.59	−0.05	+0.94	+0.04
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.00	19.11	+2.11	+2.21	−0.17	−0.14	+0.20
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	17.00	19.11	+2.11	+2.21	−0.17	−0.23	+0.30
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	18.39	+1.89	+1.79	−0.13	−0.16	+0.38
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	17.50	19.12	+1.62	+2.02	−0.18	−0.46	+0.24
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	17.64	+1.51	+1.87	−0.12	−0.50	+0.26
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	18.00	19.40	+1.40	+2.15	−0.18	−0.69	+0.12
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	14.00	15.19	+1.19	+2.05	−0.19	−0.82	+0.15
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	18.33	19.49	+1.16	0.00	−0.08	+0.57	+0.67
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	18.00	19.10	+1.10	+2.01	−0.18	−0.85	+0.12
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	14.00	14.97	+0.97	+0.94	−0.23	+0.12	+0.15
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	17.00	17.89	+0.89	+0.98	−0.15	−0.05	+0.11
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	15.11	+0.86	+0.95	−0.10	−0.16	+0.17
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.00	16.77	+0.77	+0.52	−0.25	+0.27	+0.22
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	17.60	18.34	+0.74	0.00	−0.27	+0.82	+0.19
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.09	17.70	+0.61	0.00	−0.12	+0.11	+0.62
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	17.75	18.19	+0.44	0.00	−0.10	+0.37	+0.17
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.40	16.83	+0.43	0.00	−0.04	+0.14	+0.33
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.40	17.77	+0.37	0.00	−0.10	+0.37	+0.10
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	17.20	17.50	+0.30	0.00	−0.26	+0.28	+0.28
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	17.67	17.97	+0.30	0.00	−0.10	+0.37	+0.03
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	14.48	+0.23	0.00	−0.09	−0.17	+0.49
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	16.75	16.96	+0.21	0.00	−0.25	+0.28	+0.18
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.00	16.16	+0.16	0.00	−0.10	−0.15	+0.42
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	17.67	17.78	+0.11	0.00	−0.10	+0.09	+0.12
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	17.50	17.57	+0.07	0.00	−0.15	−0.05	+0.28
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.57	16.62	+0.05	0.00	−0.25	+0.15	+0.15
Space Operations	National Security	14.67	14.55	−0.12	0.00	−0.17	−0.63	+0.68
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.25	18.04	−0.21	0.00	−0.12	−0.14	+0.05
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	18.40	18.18	−0.22	0.00	−0.17	−0.32	+0.26
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	14.67	14.24	−0.43	0.00	−0.17	−0.63	+0.36
Land Power	National Security	16.50	16.02	−0.48	0.00	−0.19	−0.61	+0.32
Air Power	National Security	17.00	16.47	−0.53	0.00	−0.20	−0.60	+0.27
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	17.00	16.35	−0.65	0.00	−0.20	−0.60	+0.14
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	16.67	16.01	−0.66	0.00	−0.04	−0.61	−0.01
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	17.33	16.62	−0.71	0.00	−0.20	−0.97	+0.46
Maritime Power	National Security	17.00	16.06	−0.94	0.00	−0.19	−0.98	+0.23
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	18.00	16.94	−1.06	0.00	−0.20	−0.96	+0.10

Seed 47 of experiment cycle-001.e3-gbr-greedy-marginal. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.