A good simulation (90th percentile) · cycle-001.e3-gbr-greedy-marginal

Simulation 68

United Kingdom, greedy, 20 years, seed 68: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 18.56 in 2046; 67 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 68

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 47 (median simulation), 18 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 18.56 (+2.11); From 16.45
Rank by index: 1; From 3
Domains at Tier 1: 7; From 2
Events: 1 shock; 3 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 48 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 48 Build Digital & AI Competence 48 Build Foundational Education 48 Build Advanced Education 48		16.49 +0.038
2028	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 48 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 48 Build Digital & AI Competence 48 Build Foundational Education 48 Build Advanced Education 48		16.57 +0.073
2029	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 48 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 48 Build Foundational Education 48 Buy Technology Adoption & Diffusion 48 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 48		16.73 +0.163
2030	Build Economic Output & Productivity 48 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 48 Partner Global Value Chain Position 48 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 48 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 48		16.89 +0.160
2031	Build Economic Output & Productivity 48 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 48 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 48 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 48 Build Early Childhood Development 48		17.06 +0.172
2032	Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 49 Build Early Childhood Development 49 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 49 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 49 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 49	Severe pandemic	16.87 −0.187
2033	Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 51 Build Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 51 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 51 Partner Digital & Services Trade 51 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 51		17.00 +0.128
2034	Build Population Health 51 Buy Artificial Intelligence 51 Build Labour & Employment 51 Build Diaspora & Global Communities 51 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 51	Public service leap	17.19 +0.188
2035	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 52 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 52 Build Population Health 52 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 52 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 52	Chronic disease advance	17.40 +0.210
2036	Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 55 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 55 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 55 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 55 Build Health System Capability 55		17.63 +0.234
2037	Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 59 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 59 Buy Advanced Manufacturing 59 Partner Space Technologies 59 Build Health System Capability 59		17.82 +0.190
2038	Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 56 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 56 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 56 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 56 Buy Advanced Manufacturing 56		18.03 +0.205
2039	Buy Energy Technologies 56 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 56 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 56 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 56 Build Labour & Employment 56		18.25 +0.225
2040	Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 57 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 11		18.36 +0.104
2041	No actions		18.40 +0.038
2042	No actions	Clean power threshold	18.44 +0.043
2043	No actions		18.48 +0.043
2044	No actions		18.52 +0.033
2045	No actions		18.54 +0.025
2046	No actions		18.56 +0.020

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Human Capital	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	2	2	2	2	2	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−2.348	−167.0	−5.55
No shocks	+0.205	+14.8	+0.10
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.013	−1.0	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.021	−1.5	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.016	−1.2	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.017	−1.3	−0.05
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.013	−0.9	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.065	+4.0	+0.05
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.057	+3.5	+0.07
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.053	+3.4	+0.10

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	14.67	20.00	+5.33	+10.77	−0.09	+0.39	+0.12
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	14.67	19.99	+5.32	+5.04	−0.19	+0.11	+0.36
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.00	20.00	+5.00	+10.50	−0.09	+0.52	+0.54
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	15.25	20.00	+4.75	+4.61	−0.19	+0.38	+0.36
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.20	19.87	+4.67	+4.09	−0.14	+0.39	+0.33
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	19.52	+4.52	+4.50	−0.18	−0.28	+0.49
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.50	20.00	+4.50	+3.97	−0.06	+0.68	+0.45
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	15.67	20.00	+4.33	+4.96	−0.21	+0.02	+0.92
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	15.60	19.87	+4.27	+3.68	−0.16	+0.39	+0.36
Foundational Education	Human Capital	15.75	20.00	+4.25	+6.64	−0.09	+0.17	+0.35
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+4.54	−0.09	+0.35	+0.63
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+4.39	−0.06	+0.09	+0.65
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+3.94	−0.19	+0.14	+0.57
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	16.00	19.80	+3.80	+3.06	−0.21	+0.36	+0.59
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	16.25	20.00	+3.75	+3.95	−0.06	+0.68	+0.17
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.33	20.00	+3.67	+4.09	−0.09	+0.42	+0.17
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	16.33	20.00	+3.67	+3.93	−0.06	+0.68	+0.22
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	16.50	20.00	+3.50	+5.68	−0.09	+0.53	+0.68
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.67	20.00	+3.33	+3.66	−0.06	+0.54	+0.30
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	20.00	+3.00	+3.70	−0.09	+0.38	+0.73
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.00	20.00	+3.00	+3.26	−0.06	+1.09	+0.54
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	18.33	+3.00	+2.83	−0.19	+0.02	+0.33
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	15.60	18.54	+2.94	+2.53	−0.33	+0.62	+0.11
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	19.41	+2.81	+2.52	−0.34	+0.50	+0.14
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	16.00	18.79	+2.79	+2.68	−0.19	+0.03	+0.28
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.25	20.00	+2.75	+2.82	−0.20	+0.04	+0.39
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	17.33	20.00	+2.67	+2.44	−0.35	+0.37	+0.61
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	14.00	16.66	+2.66	+2.30	−0.29	+0.34	+0.31
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.00	16.53	+2.53	+2.23	−0.28	+0.34	+0.24
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.50	16.00	+2.50	+2.57	−0.16	+0.03	+0.06
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	17.50	20.00	+2.50	+2.33	−0.20	+0.05	+0.34
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	17.00	19.48	+2.48	+2.21	−0.20	+0.04	+0.42
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	17.50	19.97	+2.47	+2.30	−0.20	+0.05	+0.59
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	18.96	+2.46	+1.77	−0.15	+0.39	+0.44
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	19.36	+2.36	+1.82	−0.23	+0.70	+0.07
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	17.25	19.45	+2.20	+1.17	−0.13	+0.28	+0.88
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	17.00	19.19	+2.19	+2.14	−0.18	+0.12	+0.11
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	17.50	19.64	+2.14	+2.04	−0.21	+0.05	+0.27
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	18.00	19.95	+1.95	+2.15	−0.21	+0.05	+0.18
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.00	18.87	+1.87	+2.21	−0.19	−0.42	+0.27
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	14.00	15.79	+1.79	+2.13	−0.23	−0.21	+0.10
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	18.33	20.00	+1.67	+1.20	−0.10	+0.36	+0.50
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	18.00	19.53	+1.53	+1.95	−0.21	−0.34	+0.12
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	17.67	18.99	+1.32	0.00	−0.06	+1.29	+0.08
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	16.40	17.61	+1.21	+0.49	−0.12	+0.34	+0.49
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	16.00	16.84	+0.84	0.00	−0.05	+0.54	+0.35
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	16.92	+0.79	0.00	−0.12	+0.66	+0.25
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.09	17.88	+0.79	0.00	−0.13	+0.38	+0.54
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.40	17.17	+0.77	0.00	−0.05	+0.34	+0.47
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	15.01	+0.76	0.00	−0.11	+0.39	+0.48
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	14.98	+0.73	0.00	−0.11	+0.66	+0.18
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.00	16.71	+0.71	0.00	−0.28	+0.36	+0.63
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.40	18.03	+0.63	0.00	−0.12	+0.62	+0.12
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.00	16.56	+0.56	0.00	−0.12	+0.39	+0.29
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	17.50	17.97	+0.47	0.00	−0.18	+0.12	+0.52
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.25	18.69	+0.44	0.00	−0.14	+0.54	+0.05
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	17.67	18.09	+0.42	0.00	−0.12	+0.35	+0.19
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	17.75	18.16	+0.41	0.00	−0.12	+0.35	+0.18
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.57	16.95	+0.38	0.00	−0.28	+0.36	+0.30
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	17.20	17.57	+0.37	0.00	−0.29	+0.36	+0.30
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	18.40	18.74	+0.34	0.00	−0.19	+0.05	+0.48
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	16.75	17.03	+0.28	0.00	−0.28	+0.36	+0.20
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	17.60	17.87	+0.27	0.00	−0.30	+0.33	+0.24
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	17.67	17.93	+0.26	0.00	−0.12	+0.35	+0.03
Space Operations	National Security	14.67	14.81	+0.14	0.00	−0.20	−0.21	+0.55
Land Power	National Security	16.50	16.56	+0.06	0.00	−0.23	−0.20	+0.49
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	17.33	17.28	−0.05	0.00	−0.24	−0.20	+0.39
Air Power	National Security	17.00	16.94	−0.06	0.00	−0.23	−0.20	+0.37
Maritime Power	National Security	17.00	16.87	−0.13	0.00	−0.23	−0.20	+0.30
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	14.67	14.50	−0.17	0.00	−0.20	−0.21	+0.24
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	16.67	16.43	−0.24	0.00	−0.05	−0.20	+0.01
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	18.00	17.68	−0.32	0.00	−0.24	−0.20	+0.12
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	17.00	16.67	−0.33	0.00	−0.23	−0.20	+0.10

Seed 68 of experiment cycle-001.e3-gbr-greedy-marginal. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.