Simulation 18
United Kingdom, greedy, 20 years, seed 18: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 18.02 in 2046; 94 actions over 20 rounds and 6 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 18
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 47 (median simulation), 68 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 18.02 (+1.57)
- From 16.45
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 3
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 6 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.49 +0.038 | |
| 2028 |
| Middle East settlement | 16.62 +0.124 |
| 2029 |
| 16.83 +0.213 | |
| 2030 |
| 17.04 +0.209 | |
| 2031 |
| Hybrid coercion | 16.97 −0.067 |
| 2032 |
| 17.13 +0.164 | |
| 2033 |
| 17.24 +0.103 | |
| 2034 |
| 17.37 +0.134 | |
| 2035 |
| Legitimacy ruptureBreadbasket failure | 17.30 −0.066 |
| 2036 |
| 17.47 +0.169 | |
| 2037 |
| Cryptographic trust break | 17.33 −0.144 |
| 2038 |
| 17.46 +0.136 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.65 +0.182 | |
| 2040 |
| Regional war spillover | 17.44 −0.204 |
| 2041 |
| Hybrid coercion | 17.46 +0.022 |
| 2042 |
| 17.63 +0.165 | |
| 2043 |
| 17.75 +0.117 | |
| 2044 |
| 17.86 +0.108 | |
| 2045 |
| 17.93 +0.079 | |
| 2046 |
| 18.02 +0.086 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.348 | −167.0 | −5.55 |
| No shocks | +0.205 | +14.8 | +0.10 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.013 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.021 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.016 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.017 | −1.3 | −0.05 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.013 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.065 | +4.0 | +0.05 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.057 | +3.5 | +0.07 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.053 | +3.4 | +0.10 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.67 | 19.96 | +5.29 | +10.75 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.16 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.00 | 20.00 | +5.00 | +10.47 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.43 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 19.56 | +4.56 | +5.01 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.38 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.75 | 20.00 | +4.25 | +6.63 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.22 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +6.46 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.34 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 14.67 | 18.65 | +3.98 | +4.45 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.38 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 15.67 | 19.57 | +3.90 | +5.00 | 0.00 | −1.15 | +0.67 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 17.24 | +3.74 | +4.88 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.03 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 20.00 | +3.67 | +5.68 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.24 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 16.00 | 19.60 | +3.60 | +4.51 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.21 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.86 | +3.53 | +4.78 | 0.00 | −1.57 | +0.33 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 20.00 | +3.50 | +5.68 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.58 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 16.25 | 19.65 | +3.40 | +3.79 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.24 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 18.90 | +3.40 | +3.61 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.34 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 19.36 | +3.36 | +4.01 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.30 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.25 | 18.60 | +3.35 | +4.05 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.14 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.60 | 18.94 | +3.34 | +4.32 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.04 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 17.30 | +3.30 | +4.16 | 0.00 | −1.00 | +0.14 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.67 | 19.84 | +3.17 | +3.56 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.22 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.20 | 18.22 | +3.02 | +3.93 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.18 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +5.11 | 0.00 | −1.77 | +0.06 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.70 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.48 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 19.55 | +2.95 | +4.55 | 0.00 | −1.66 | +0.06 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 16.93 | +2.93 | +3.84 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.08 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.60 | 18.45 | +2.85 | +3.52 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.40 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 18.64 | +2.64 | +3.05 | 0.00 | −0.97 | +0.56 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.51 | +2.51 | +4.12 | 0.00 | −1.64 | +0.03 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 14.00 | 16.43 | +2.43 | +4.00 | 0.00 | −1.66 | +0.09 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.00 | 19.42 | +2.42 | +3.10 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.35 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.28 | +2.28 | +2.13 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.34 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.33 | 18.20 | +1.87 | +1.97 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.04 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 17.75 | +1.75 | +2.21 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.37 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 17.33 | 19.04 | +1.71 | +2.39 | 0.00 | −0.97 | +0.29 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 17.69 | +1.69 | +2.40 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.24 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 16.40 | 18.07 | +1.67 | +2.23 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.38 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.25 | 18.92 | +1.67 | +2.79 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.13 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 19.00 | +1.50 | +2.19 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.44 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.57 | 18.04 | +1.47 | +2.33 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.09 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 17.00 | 18.42 | +1.42 | +2.26 | 0.00 | −0.89 | +0.05 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.32 | +1.32 | +2.22 | 0.00 | −1.20 | +0.30 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 17.25 | 18.55 | +1.30 | +2.18 | 0.00 | −1.51 | +0.64 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.40 | 18.57 | +1.17 | +1.95 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.12 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.58 | +1.08 | +2.16 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.23 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.54 | +1.04 | +1.75 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.34 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 17.20 | 18.23 | +1.03 | +1.72 | 0.00 | −0.93 | +0.24 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 17.67 | 18.69 | +1.02 | +1.55 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.03 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 18.40 | 19.36 | +0.96 | +1.88 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.26 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 16.89 | +0.89 | +1.93 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.13 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 15.10 | +0.85 | +2.17 | 0.00 | −1.40 | +0.07 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 18.70 | +0.70 | +2.47 | 0.00 | −1.57 | −0.04 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 18.13 | +0.63 | +1.86 | 0.00 | −1.42 | +0.20 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.25 | 18.73 | +0.48 | +1.83 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.18 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.60 | 18.05 | +0.45 | +1.28 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.09 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 14.67 | 15.12 | +0.45 | +2.10 | 0.00 | −1.80 | +0.15 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 18.33 | 18.68 | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.48 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.37 | +0.24 | +1.96 | 0.00 | −1.79 | +0.07 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 17.97 | −0.03 | +2.13 | 0.00 | −2.30 | +0.14 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 17.75 | 17.38 | −0.37 | +0.41 | 0.00 | −0.89 | +0.10 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.09 | 16.57 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.38 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 17.50 | 16.83 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.21 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.40 | 15.55 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.21 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 13.40 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.15 | +0.30 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.75 | 15.88 | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.06 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 16.58 | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.15 | +0.07 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 14.67 | 13.49 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.42 | +0.24 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 15.27 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.37 | +0.14 |
| Air Power | National Security | 17.00 | 15.76 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.12 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 16.39 | −1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | −0.02 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 16.67 | 15.16 | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.36 | −0.14 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 17.00 | 15.32 | −1.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.72 | +0.04 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 17.33 | 15.39 | −1.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.30 | +0.36 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 18.00 | 16.05 | −1.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.08 | +0.13 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 17.00 | 14.83 | −2.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.29 | +0.12 |
Seed 18 of experiment cycle-001.e3-gbr-greedy-marginal. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.