Median simulation · cycle-001.e3-gbr-mirror-peer

Simulation 57

United Kingdom, mirror a peer, 20 years, seed 57: median simulation of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 17.32 in 2046; 59 actions over 20 rounds and 4 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 57

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 44 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 60 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 17.32 (+0.87); From 16.45
Rank by index: 2; From 3
Domains at Tier 1: 2; From 2
Events: 4 shocks; 3 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the mirror a peer (usa) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Partner Space Technologies 48 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 48 Buy Space Operations 48 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 48 Buy Resource Infrastructure 48		16.52 +0.061
2028	Partner Space Technologies 48 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 48 Buy Space Operations 48 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 48 Buy Resource Infrastructure 48	Global funding seizure	16.30 −0.214
2029	Build Economic Output & Productivity 48 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 48 Buy Robotics & Autonomous Systems 48 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 48 Buy Energy Technologies 48		16.44 +0.134
2030	Buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 45 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 45 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 45 Build Economic Output & Productivity 45 Buy Land Power 45	Market access openingClean power threshold	16.66 +0.228
2031	Buy Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 46 Partner Nuclear Deterrence 46 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 46 Buy Advanced Manufacturing 46 Buy Air Power 46		16.93 +0.265
2032	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 52 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 52 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 52 Partner Quantum Technologies 52 Buy Maritime Power 52		17.16 +0.236
2033	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 54 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 54 Buy Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 54 Partner Space Technologies 54 Partner Global Value Chain Position 54		17.34 +0.175
2034	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 53 Buy Biotechnology & Health Technologies 53 Buy Sensing, Timing & Navigation 53 Buy Technology Adoption & Diffusion 53 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 53		17.56 +0.220
2035	Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 54 Buy Artificial Intelligence 54 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 54 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 54 Build Nuclear Deterrence 11		17.66 +0.102
2036	No actions	Regional war spillover	17.40 −0.261
2037	No actions	Regional war spillover	17.15 −0.251
2038	Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 20 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 20		17.17 +0.017
2039	Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 49	Global funding seizure	16.86 −0.301
2040	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 49 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 10	Clean power threshold	16.94 +0.078
2041	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 47 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 47		17.06 +0.117
2042	Buy Transport Infrastructure 50 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 20 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 20		17.16 +0.105
2043	Buy Land Power 50 Buy Maritime Power 20		17.27 +0.108
2044	Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 20 Buy Air Power 20		17.36 +0.087
2045	No actions		17.34 −0.018
2046	No actions		17.32 −0.018

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
National Security	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Human Capital	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Information & Influence	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Governance & Integrity	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	2	2	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	2	2	2	2	2	2
Production & Innovation	1	1	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.326	−102.8	−0.90
No shocks	+0.349	+24.8	+1.05
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.012	−0.8	−0.10
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.001	+0.0	+0.05
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.011	−0.7	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.012	−0.8	+0.10
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.009	−0.6	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.185	+13.0	+0.53
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.122	+8.4	+0.71
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.114	+7.8	+0.30

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	14.00	18.85	+4.85	+4.90	−0.26	+0.07	+0.13
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.00	18.71	+4.71	+4.73	−0.24	+0.13	+0.09
Space Operations	National Security	14.67	18.23	+3.56	+3.34	−0.20	−0.65	+1.07
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	17.76	+3.51	+3.58	−0.11	+0.07	−0.03
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	16.00	19.29	+3.29	+3.20	−0.16	+0.24	+0.01
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	14.00	17.14	+3.14	+4.19	−0.18	−0.66	−0.20
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.00	19.05	+3.05	+3.99	−0.14	−1.02	+0.22
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	14.67	17.65	+2.98	+3.95	−0.19	−1.30	+0.53
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	15.25	17.79	+2.54	+2.11	−0.13	+0.38	+0.19
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.00	18.50	+2.50	+2.14	−0.24	+0.14	+0.46
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	15.60	18.08	+2.48	+2.20	−0.23	+0.52	0.00
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	18.95	+2.35	+2.45	−0.25	+0.14	0.00
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	17.33	19.66	+2.33	+1.73	−0.25	+0.16	+0.68
Land Power	National Security	16.50	18.77	+2.27	+2.55	−0.19	−0.61	+0.51
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	16.00	18.19	+2.19	+2.96	−0.14	−0.67	+0.05
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	17.20	19.24	+2.04	+1.48	−0.24	+0.16	+0.64
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.57	18.49	+1.92	+1.91	−0.24	+0.15	+0.10
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	15.60	17.42	+1.82	+1.63	−0.10	+0.04	+0.25
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	18.00	19.78	+1.78	+2.23	−0.15	−0.19	+0.07
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	14.67	16.44	+1.77	+2.11	−0.12	−0.32	+0.09
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	15.96	+1.71	+1.78	−0.09	+0.02	+0.01
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	18.08	+1.58	+1.53	−0.10	+0.05	+0.10
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	16.40	17.93	+1.53	+2.14	−0.09	−0.55	+0.03
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	16.67	18.16	+1.49	+2.06	−0.04	−0.59	+0.06
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	17.60	19.05	+1.45	+1.51	−0.24	+0.17	+0.01
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	17.00	18.39	+1.39	+2.75	−0.19	−1.20	+0.03
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	17.00	18.36	+1.36	+1.83	−0.13	−0.31	−0.03
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	16.75	18.10	+1.35	+1.42	−0.23	+0.17	−0.01
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.00	17.33	+1.33	+1.77	−0.10	−0.15	−0.19
Air Power	National Security	17.00	18.33	+1.33	+1.77	−0.19	−0.60	+0.35
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	17.67	18.95	+1.28	0.00	−0.04	+1.31	0.00
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	17.50	18.56	+1.06	+1.40	−0.14	−0.30	+0.10
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	17.33	18.37	+1.04	+1.62	−0.19	−0.60	+0.21
Maritime Power	National Security	17.00	17.93	+0.93	+1.98	−0.19	−1.20	+0.34
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.00	15.87	+0.87	0.00	−0.06	+0.84	+0.09
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	18.00	18.64	+0.64	+1.28	−0.19	−0.57	+0.12
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.00	17.55	+0.55	0.00	−0.04	+0.61	−0.03
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	16.59	+0.46	0.00	−0.09	+0.53	+0.02
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	15.75	+0.42	+1.31	−0.12	−1.35	+0.57
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	17.67	18.04	+0.37	+1.80	−0.08	−1.32	−0.03
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	17.67	17.97	+0.30	+1.72	−0.08	−1.32	−0.02
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	16.33	16.60	+0.27	0.00	−0.04	+0.30	+0.01
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.67	16.94	+0.27	0.00	−0.04	+0.30	+0.01
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	16.25	16.52	+0.27	0.00	−0.04	+0.29	+0.01
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.50	15.77	+0.27	0.00	−0.03	+0.28	+0.02
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	16.00	16.24	+0.24	0.00	−0.04	+0.29	−0.02
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.00	17.21	+0.21	+1.21	−0.13	−0.98	+0.11
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.00	16.20	+0.20	0.00	−0.06	+0.20	+0.06
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	16.20	+0.20	0.00	−0.04	+0.20	+0.05
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	14.67	14.82	+0.15	0.00	−0.05	+0.18	+0.01
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	16.50	16.65	+0.15	0.00	−0.06	+0.20	+0.01
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	17.14	+0.14	0.00	−0.06	+0.20	0.00
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	18.33	18.43	+0.10	0.00	−0.07	+0.21	−0.05
Foundational Education	Human Capital	15.75	15.85	+0.10	0.00	−0.06	+0.19	−0.04
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.40	16.37	−0.03	0.00	−0.04	+0.01	0.00
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	16.95	−0.05	0.00	−0.15	+0.09	+0.01
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.20	15.07	−0.13	0.00	−0.08	+0.07	−0.11
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	17.50	17.35	−0.15	0.00	−0.13	−0.19	+0.18
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	17.50	17.34	−0.16	0.00	−0.13	−0.19	+0.17
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	18.00	17.79	−0.21	0.00	−0.14	−0.19	+0.11
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.33	16.03	−0.30	0.00	−0.06	−0.07	−0.18
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.09	16.79	−0.30	0.00	−0.09	+0.09	−0.29
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	18.40	18.09	−0.31	0.00	−0.14	−0.18	+0.01
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.50	13.17	−0.33	0.00	−0.10	−0.23	0.00
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	15.67	15.27	−0.40	0.00	−0.12	−0.65	+0.36
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.25	16.84	−0.41	0.00	−0.13	−0.31	+0.03
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.25	17.81	−0.44	0.00	−0.10	−0.27	−0.07
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	17.50	17.06	−0.44	0.00	−0.13	−0.30	0.00
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	17.75	17.21	−0.54	+0.80	−0.08	−1.32	+0.07
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	17.00	16.35	−0.65	+0.62	−0.12	−1.27	+0.12
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.40	16.65	−0.75	0.00	−0.08	−0.65	−0.02
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	13.86	−1.14	0.00	−0.11	−1.21	+0.17
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	17.25	15.66	−1.59	0.00	−0.08	−1.90	+0.39

Seed 57 of experiment cycle-001.e3-gbr-mirror-peer. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.