A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-001.e3-gbr-mirror-peer

Simulation 44

United Kingdom, mirror a peer, 20 years, seed 44: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 16.90 in 2046; 73 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 44

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 57 (median simulation), 60 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 16.90 (+0.44); From 16.45
Rank by index: 2; From 3
Domains at Tier 1: 1; From 2
Events: 5 shocks; 2 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the mirror a peer (usa) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Partner Space Technologies 48 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 48 Buy Space Operations 48 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 48 Buy Resource Infrastructure 48		16.52 +0.061
2028	Partner Space Technologies 48 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 48 Buy Space Operations 48 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 48 Buy Resource Infrastructure 48		16.60 +0.087
2029	Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 48 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 48 Buy Robotics & Autonomous Systems 48 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 48 Buy Energy Technologies 48		16.74 +0.138
2030	Buy Land Power 48 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 48 Build Economic Output & Productivity 48 Buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 48 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 48	Chronic disease advance	16.88 +0.141
2031	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 48 Buy Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 48 Buy Air Power 48 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 48 Buy Advanced Manufacturing 48		17.05 +0.165
2032	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 51 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 51 Buy Maritime Power 51 Partner Quantum Technologies 51 Buy Technology Adoption & Diffusion 51	AI labour shock	17.10 +0.051
2033	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 52 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 52 Partner Space Technologies 52 Partner Global Value Chain Position 52 Buy Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 52	Trade bloc rupture	17.04 −0.060
2034	Buy Artificial Intelligence 47 Buy Sensing, Timing & Navigation 47 Buy Biotechnology & Health Technologies 47 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 19 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 9		17.00 −0.040
2035	No actions		16.93 −0.067
2036	Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 43 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 43 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 17 Partner Digital & Services Trade 9		16.98 +0.049
2037	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 48 Buy Transport Infrastructure 48 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 19		17.06 +0.077
2038	Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 48 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 48		17.14 +0.085
2039	Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 49 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 19 Buy Energy Infrastructure 10		17.19 +0.048
2040	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 49 Buy Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 19		17.25 +0.061
2041	Partner Digital & Services Trade 49 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10	Global funding seizure	17.05 −0.200
2042	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 49 Build Economic Output & Productivity 20	Hybrid coercion	16.90 −0.152
2043	Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 47 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 47 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 47		16.93 +0.036
2044	Buy Energy Infrastructure 47 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 47 Buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 19 Buy Energy Technologies 19	Global funding seizure	16.71 −0.221
2045	Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 48 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 48 Build Economic Output & Productivity 48	Water-efficient food leap	16.80 +0.085
2046	Build Financial System Depth & Access 46 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 46 Buy Robotics & Autonomous Systems 46 Partner Quantum Technologies 18 Buy Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 9		16.90 +0.099

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
National Security	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Human Capital	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Information & Influence	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Governance & Integrity	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	4	4	4
Financial Strength	2	2	2	2	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Trade & Investment	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.326	−102.8	−0.90
No shocks	+0.349	+24.8	+1.05
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.012	−0.8	−0.10
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.001	+0.0	+0.05
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.011	−0.7	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.012	−0.8	+0.10
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.009	−0.6	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.185	+13.0	+0.53
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.122	+8.4	+0.71
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.114	+7.8	+0.30

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.00	17.97	+3.97	+4.74	−0.01	−0.90	+0.13
Space Operations	National Security	14.67	18.31	+3.64	+3.34	0.00	−0.46	+0.76
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	14.00	17.59	+3.59	+4.80	−0.01	−1.27	+0.07
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	14.67	17.98	+3.31	+3.34	0.00	−0.46	+0.42
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	14.00	16.96	+2.96	+3.50	0.00	−0.47	−0.07
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.00	18.92	+2.92	+3.63	−0.01	−0.88	+0.17
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	17.02	+2.77	+3.58	0.00	−0.84	+0.04
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	15.25	17.79	+2.54	+3.92	0.00	−1.45	+0.08
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.00	18.13	+2.13	+3.87	0.00	−1.91	+0.17
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	15.60	17.61	+2.01	+2.96	−0.01	−0.90	−0.04
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	18.49	+1.99	+2.69	0.00	−0.77	+0.07
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	16.00	17.81	+1.81	+3.25	0.00	−1.42	−0.01
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	15.94	+1.69	+2.54	0.00	−0.78	−0.07
Land Power	National Security	16.50	18.08	+1.58	+1.49	0.00	−0.42	+0.52
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.57	18.01	+1.44	+2.53	−0.01	−1.13	+0.05
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	18.04	+1.44	+2.46	−0.01	−1.01	0.00
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.00	18.30	+1.30	+2.79	0.00	−1.65	+0.16
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	16.67	17.93	+1.26	+1.54	0.00	−0.41	+0.14
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	15.67	16.92	+1.25	+2.96	0.00	−2.02	+0.31
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	18.25	+1.25	+2.05	0.00	−0.82	+0.02
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	17.33	18.52	+1.19	+1.97	−0.01	−1.26	+0.48
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	17.20	18.39	+1.19	+1.47	−0.01	−0.81	+0.53
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	16.40	17.53	+1.13	+2.14	0.00	−1.14	+0.13
Air Power	National Security	17.00	18.12	+1.12	+1.35	0.00	−0.42	+0.19
Maritime Power	National Security	17.00	18.11	+1.11	+1.41	0.00	−0.70	+0.40
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	17.00	18.09	+1.09	+1.44	0.00	−0.42	+0.07
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	17.33	18.37	+1.04	+1.58	0.00	−0.70	+0.16
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	17.14	+1.01	+2.02	0.00	−1.00	0.00
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	16.34	+1.01	+2.67	0.00	−2.02	+0.36
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	15.60	16.60	+1.00	+1.68	0.00	−0.78	+0.10
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	14.67	15.62	+0.95	+2.17	0.00	−1.29	+0.07
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	16.00	16.90	+0.90	+2.93	0.00	−2.00	−0.03
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.00	16.85	+0.85	+1.69	0.00	−0.74	−0.10
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	18.00	18.82	+0.82	+2.24	0.00	−1.43	+0.01
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	16.75	17.51	+0.76	+1.62	−0.01	−0.81	−0.04
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	17.60	18.31	+0.71	+1.42	−0.01	−0.69	−0.01
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	17.50	18.19	+0.69	+2.88	0.00	−2.19	0.00
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	18.00	18.59	+0.59	+1.24	0.00	−0.67	+0.03
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	18.00	18.42	+0.42	+2.25	0.00	−1.88	+0.05
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	17.50	17.92	+0.42	+1.71	0.00	−1.28	0.00
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	17.00	17.29	+0.29	+1.77	0.00	−1.29	−0.18
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	17.00	17.06	+0.06	+2.58	0.00	−2.52	+0.01
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	17.67	17.50	−0.17	+1.69	0.00	−1.74	−0.13
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.33	16.12	−0.21	0.00	0.00	−0.16	−0.04
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.00	14.79	−0.21	0.00	0.00	−0.25	+0.05
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.00	15.77	−0.23	0.00	0.00	−0.27	+0.03
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	15.76	−0.24	0.00	0.00	−0.27	+0.03
Foundational Education	Human Capital	15.75	15.45	−0.30	0.00	0.00	−0.27	−0.03
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	18.33	17.99	−0.34	0.00	0.00	−0.24	−0.10
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	17.67	17.29	−0.38	+1.72	0.00	−2.01	−0.08
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.25	16.82	−0.43	+1.58	0.00	−1.96	−0.05
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	17.67	17.20	−0.47	0.00	0.00	−0.47	0.00
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	16.33	15.80	−0.53	0.00	0.00	−0.50	−0.03
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	16.25	15.72	−0.53	0.00	0.00	−0.50	−0.02
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.50	14.96	−0.54	0.00	0.00	−0.52	−0.02
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	16.44	−0.56	0.00	0.00	−0.55	−0.01
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	16.50	15.93	−0.57	0.00	0.00	−0.56	−0.01
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	14.67	14.08	−0.59	0.00	0.00	−0.59	0.00
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	17.75	17.16	−0.59	+1.19	0.00	−1.77	−0.01
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.40	15.76	−0.64	0.00	0.00	−0.64	0.00
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.20	14.54	−0.66	+0.18	0.00	−0.73	−0.12
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.09	16.35	−0.74	0.00	0.00	−0.56	−0.18
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	16.00	15.25	−0.75	0.00	0.00	−0.65	−0.10
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.67	15.92	−0.75	0.00	0.00	−0.72	−0.03
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	17.50	16.64	−0.86	+0.49	0.00	−1.43	+0.08
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.00	16.12	−0.88	0.00	0.00	−0.85	−0.03
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	17.50	16.34	−1.16	0.00	0.00	−1.17	+0.01
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	18.40	17.23	−1.17	0.00	0.00	−1.15	−0.01
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.25	17.06	−1.19	0.00	0.00	−1.04	−0.15
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.40	16.18	−1.22	+0.58	0.00	−1.77	−0.03
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.50	12.25	−1.25	0.00	0.00	−1.24	−0.01
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	17.25	15.63	−1.62	0.00	0.00	−1.91	+0.29
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	12.54	−2.46	0.00	0.00	−2.56	+0.10

Seed 44 of experiment cycle-001.e3-gbr-mirror-peer. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.