A good simulation (90th percentile) · cycle-001.e3-gbr-mirror-peer

Simulation 60

United Kingdom, mirror a peer, 20 years, seed 60: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 17.75 in 2046; 49 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 60

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 57 (median simulation), 44 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 17.75 (+1.29); From 16.45
Rank by index: 2; From 3
Domains at Tier 1: 5; From 2
Events: 1 shock; 3 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the mirror a peer (usa) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Partner Space Technologies 48 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 48 Buy Space Operations 48 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 48 Buy Resource Infrastructure 48		16.52 +0.061
2028	Partner Space Technologies 48 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 48 Buy Space Operations 48 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 48 Buy Resource Infrastructure 48		16.60 +0.087
2029	Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 48 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 48 Buy Robotics & Autonomous Systems 48 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 48 Buy Energy Technologies 48		16.74 +0.139
2030	Buy Land Power 48 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 48 Build Economic Output & Productivity 48 Buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 48 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 48		16.83 +0.092
2031	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 48 Buy Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 48 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 48 Buy Advanced Manufacturing 48 Buy Air Power 48		16.95 +0.116
2032	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 48 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 48 Partner Quantum Technologies 48 Buy Maritime Power 48 Buy Sensing, Timing & Navigation 48		17.05 +0.099
2033	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 49 Buy Technology Adoption & Diffusion 49 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 49 Partner Space Technologies 49 Buy Biotechnology & Health Technologies 49		17.19 +0.138
2034	Partner Global Value Chain Position 49 Buy Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 49 Buy Transport Infrastructure 49 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 49 Partner Nuclear Deterrence 49		17.26 +0.078
2035	Buy Artificial Intelligence 50 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 20 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 20		17.36 +0.098
2036	No actions		17.38 +0.023
2037	No actions	Trade bloc rupture	17.29 −0.090
2038	No actions		17.14 −0.159
2039	No actions		17.01 −0.125
2040	Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 43 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 43 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 17 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9	Automated discovery step	17.26 +0.248
2041	Partner Intelligence & Assessment 49 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 10		17.51 +0.251
2042	No actions		17.69 +0.176
2043	No actions	Clean power threshold	17.65 −0.037
2044	No actions		17.67 +0.017
2045	No actions	Water-efficient food leap	17.70 +0.033
2046	No actions		17.75 +0.046

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
National Security	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Human Capital	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Governance & Integrity	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.326	−102.8	−0.90
No shocks	+0.349	+24.8	+1.05
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.012	−0.8	−0.10
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.001	+0.0	+0.05
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.011	−0.7	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.012	−0.8	+0.10
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.009	−0.6	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.185	+13.0	+0.53
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.122	+8.4	+0.71
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.114	+7.8	+0.30

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	14.00	18.76	+4.76	+4.49	−0.65	+0.73	+0.19
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.00	18.74	+4.74	+4.69	−0.61	+0.50	+0.15
Space Operations	National Security	14.67	19.09	+4.42	+3.34	−0.53	+0.43	+1.17
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	18.42	+4.17	+3.58	−0.28	+0.86	+0.01
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	14.67	18.40	+3.73	+3.34	−0.51	+0.43	+0.47
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	16.00	19.55	+3.55	+3.13	−0.40	+0.71	+0.11
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	14.00	17.46	+3.46	+3.50	−0.49	+0.43	+0.01
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	15.25	18.32	+3.07	+2.79	−0.33	+0.43	+0.17
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.00	19.01	+3.01	+2.11	−0.62	+1.11	+0.40
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	18.31	+2.98	+2.66	−0.33	+0.06	+0.60
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	17.33	20.00	+2.67	+1.72	−0.65	+1.13	+0.98
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	14.67	17.25	+2.58	+2.17	−0.31	+0.54	+0.18
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	16.67	19.23	+2.56	+1.84	−0.12	+0.45	+0.38
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	16.00	18.56	+2.56	+2.77	−0.36	+0.05	+0.10
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.00	18.51	+2.51	+2.00	−0.34	+0.54	+0.31
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	17.50	20.00	+2.50	+2.47	−0.37	+1.16	+0.11
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	16.64	+2.39	+1.84	−0.24	+0.70	+0.09
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	18.98	+2.38	+2.46	−0.63	+0.50	+0.05
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	15.60	17.94	+2.34	+1.69	−0.26	+0.67	+0.24
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.57	18.87	+2.30	+1.94	−0.62	+0.79	+0.18
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	15.60	17.90	+2.30	+2.17	−0.59	+0.69	+0.03
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	18.78	+2.28	+1.56	−0.27	+0.68	+0.31
Land Power	National Security	16.50	18.76	+2.26	+1.49	−0.50	+0.44	+0.82
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.00	18.17	+2.17	+1.70	−0.27	+0.70	+0.04
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	17.20	19.18	+1.98	+1.56	−0.63	+0.51	+0.54
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	18.00	19.90	+1.90	+2.21	−0.38	+0.10	+0.12
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	17.60	19.37	+1.77	+1.51	−0.63	+0.84	+0.05
Air Power	National Security	17.00	18.76	+1.76	+1.35	−0.50	+0.44	+0.46
Maritime Power	National Security	17.00	18.75	+1.75	+1.33	−0.50	+0.44	+0.46
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	17.33	18.95	+1.62	+1.48	−0.51	+0.45	+0.20
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	17.00	18.47	+1.47	+1.36	−0.49	+0.44	+0.16
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	18.00	19.40	+1.40	+1.17	−0.49	+0.45	+0.27
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	16.75	18.08	+1.33	+1.34	−0.58	+0.52	+0.04
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	17.67	18.92	+1.25	0.00	−0.10	+1.35	0.00
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	18.33	19.43	+1.10	0.00	−0.17	+1.25	+0.03
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	17.00	18.03	+1.03	+0.81	−0.33	+0.52	+0.03
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	17.92	+0.92	0.00	−0.39	+1.30	+0.01
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.00	17.81	+0.81	0.00	−0.10	+0.89	+0.02
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	16.90	+0.77	0.00	−0.23	+0.87	+0.13
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.00	15.70	+0.70	0.00	−0.14	+0.75	+0.09
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	16.40	17.05	+0.65	+0.45	−0.21	+0.19	+0.22
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.40	17.03	+0.63	0.00	−0.09	+0.67	+0.06
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	16.62	+0.62	0.00	−0.10	+0.63	+0.10
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.50	16.10	+0.60	0.00	−0.09	+0.67	+0.02
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	16.25	16.84	+0.59	0.00	−0.09	+0.67	+0.01
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	16.00	16.59	+0.59	0.00	−0.09	+0.67	+0.02
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	16.33	16.91	+0.58	0.00	−0.09	+0.67	+0.01
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.67	17.25	+0.58	0.00	−0.09	+0.67	+0.01
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.00	16.57	+0.57	0.00	−0.15	+0.63	+0.09
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.33	16.88	+0.55	0.00	−0.15	+0.63	+0.07
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.00	17.55	+0.55	0.00	−0.33	+0.45	+0.42
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	14.67	15.21	+0.54	0.00	−0.14	+0.63	+0.05
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	16.50	17.03	+0.53	0.00	−0.15	+0.63	+0.06
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.20	15.71	+0.51	0.00	−0.22	+0.70	+0.03
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.09	17.60	+0.51	0.00	−0.25	+0.68	+0.07
Foundational Education	Human Capital	15.75	16.25	+0.50	0.00	−0.15	+0.63	+0.02
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	17.48	+0.48	0.00	−0.16	+0.63	0.00
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	15.40	+0.40	0.00	−0.29	+0.51	+0.18
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.25	18.64	+0.39	0.00	−0.26	+0.69	−0.03
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	17.25	17.63	+0.38	0.00	−0.21	+0.19	+0.40
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	17.50	17.71	+0.21	0.00	−0.33	+0.46	+0.08
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.40	17.60	+0.20	0.00	−0.21	+0.40	+0.01
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	17.00	17.20	+0.20	0.00	−0.32	+0.45	+0.06
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	15.67	15.87	+0.20	0.00	−0.30	+0.06	+0.43
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	17.50	17.52	+0.02	0.00	−0.34	+0.09	+0.27
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	17.75	17.75	0.00	0.00	−0.22	+0.20	+0.02
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	17.67	17.66	−0.01	0.00	−0.22	+0.20	+0.01
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	18.00	17.85	−0.15	0.00	−0.35	+0.10	+0.10
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.25	17.08	−0.17	0.00	−0.32	+0.08	+0.07
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.50	13.32	−0.18	0.00	−0.26	+0.08	0.00
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	18.40	18.16	−0.24	0.00	−0.36	+0.10	+0.01
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	17.67	17.36	−0.31	0.00	−0.21	−0.12	+0.03
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	17.50	17.14	−0.36	0.00	−0.34	−0.23	+0.20

Seed 60 of experiment cycle-001.e3-gbr-mirror-peer. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.