A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-001.e3-kor-mirror-peer

Simulation 9

South Korea, mirror a peer, 20 years, seed 9: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 16.63 in 2046; 83 actions over 20 rounds and 3 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 9

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 74 (median simulation), 69 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 16.63 (+0.63); From 16.00
Rank by index: 3; From 6
Domains at Tier 1: 3; From 2
Events: 3 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the mirror a peer (usa) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 44 Buy Resource Infrastructure 44 Buy Space Operations 44 Partner Space Technologies 44 Partner Quantum Technologies 44		16.05 +0.044
2028	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 44 Buy Resource Infrastructure 44 Buy Space Operations 44 Partner Space Technologies 44 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 44		16.13 +0.086
2029	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 44 Buy Resource Infrastructure 44 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 44 Buy Sensing, Timing & Navigation 44 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 44		16.25 +0.115
2030	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 44 Buy Artificial Intelligence 44 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 44 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 44 Buy Biotechnology & Health Technologies 44		16.43 +0.182
2031	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 44 Buy Maritime Power 44 Partner Quantum Technologies 44 Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 44 Buy Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 44		16.54 +0.109
2032	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 44 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 44 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 44 Buy Land Power 44 Buy Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 44		16.66 +0.127
2033	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 44 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 44 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 44 Buy Air Power 44 Buy Robotics & Autonomous Systems 44		16.77 +0.109
2034	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 45 Buy Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 45 Build Economic Output & Productivity 45 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 45 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 45		16.87 +0.093
2035	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 45 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 45 Partner Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 45 Buy Energy Technologies 45 Buy Space Operations 45	AI labour shock	16.89 +0.028
2036	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 9		16.86 −0.033
2037	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 8	Global funding seizure	16.61 −0.252
2038	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 40 Partner Digital & Services Trade 40 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 40	Regional war spillover	16.14 −0.465
2039	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 44 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 44 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 44 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 44		16.21 +0.067
2040	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 42 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 42 Build Financial Infrastructure 42 Buy Maritime Power 42		16.29 +0.078
2041	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 42 Buy Resource Infrastructure 42 Buy Energy Infrastructure 42 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 42		16.36 +0.072
2042	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 42 Buy Transport Infrastructure 42 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 42 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 42		16.41 +0.045
2043	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 42 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 42 Partner Quantum Technologies 42 Buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 17 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 17		16.46 +0.058
2044	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 42 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 42 Partner Space Technologies 42 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 17 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 8		16.51 +0.050
2045	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 42 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 42 Buy Land Power 17 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 17		16.57 +0.051
2046	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 42 Build Economic Output & Productivity 42 Buy Artificial Intelligence 17		16.63 +0.065

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
National Security	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Human Capital	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	3	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Financial Strength	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Trade & Investment	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	4	4	2	2	2	2	2	2	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.657	−125.1	−1.95
No shocks	+0.508	+35.7	+1.65
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	0.000	−0.1	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.014	−1.0	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.006	−0.5	−0.05
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.007	−0.7	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.007	−0.6	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.260	+18.2	+0.79
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.140	+10.1	+0.57
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.153	+10.5	+0.50

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	1.67	16.15	+14.48	+15.23	−0.75	0.00
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.75	17.33	+5.58	+7.08	−1.53	+0.03
Space Operations	National Security	13.67	17.90	+4.23	+4.51	−0.64	+0.35
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+3.40	−0.74	+1.76
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.67	18.40	+3.73	+4.29	−0.72	+0.16
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	14.25	17.79	+3.54	+4.13	−0.73	+0.14
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	15.33	18.17	+2.84	+4.10	−1.20	−0.06
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	16.00	18.38	+2.38	+3.38	−1.07	+0.07
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.00	19.15	+2.15	+3.28	−1.28	+0.15
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	14.20	16.29	+2.09	+3.07	−1.22	+0.24
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.83	17.84	+2.01	+2.40	−0.56	+0.17
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	16.00	17.97	+1.97	+2.74	−1.15	+0.38
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	14.50	16.42	+1.92	+2.81	−0.79	−0.10
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.33	18.16	+1.83	+2.75	−0.79	−0.13
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.50	16.29	+1.79	+2.48	−0.75	+0.06
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	15.80	17.57	+1.77	+2.01	−0.73	+0.49
Maritime Power	National Security	16.00	17.76	+1.76	+2.80	−1.15	+0.10
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	18.22	+1.62	+2.32	−0.72	+0.02
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	16.20	17.66	+1.46	+1.95	−0.72	+0.24
Land Power	National Security	16.50	17.94	+1.44	+1.89	−0.57	+0.12
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	16.00	17.32	+1.32	+1.77	−0.58	+0.13
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	17.78	+1.28	+2.12	−0.87	+0.03
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.71	17.98	+1.27	+1.74	−0.71	+0.24
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	15.67	16.92	+1.25	+2.30	−1.07	+0.03
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.50	17.70	+1.20	+1.80	−0.72	+0.11
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	16.00	17.19	+1.19	+1.83	−0.49	−0.15
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	16.52	+1.19	+2.93	−1.95	+0.21
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	16.80	17.99	+1.19	+1.96	−0.72	−0.04
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	16.33	17.34	+1.01	+2.60	−1.57	−0.02
Air Power	National Security	16.75	17.73	+0.98	+1.34	−0.56	+0.20
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.50	17.47	+0.97	+2.32	−1.23	−0.11
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	17.49	+0.89	+1.82	−0.97	+0.03
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	16.50	17.27	+0.77	+1.93	−1.07	−0.08
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	15.75	16.49	+0.74	+1.91	−1.02	−0.16
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	17.50	18.18	+0.68	+1.35	−0.68	+0.01
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	16.25	16.93	+0.68	+2.42	−1.68	−0.06
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	16.33	16.85	+0.52	+1.42	−0.55	−0.35
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	16.67	17.05	+0.38	+1.68	−1.33	+0.03
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	15.75	16.10	+0.35	+1.70	−1.29	−0.06
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	16.31	+0.18	+1.55	−1.27	−0.10
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	16.33	16.43	+0.10	+1.51	−1.34	−0.07
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	16.56	+0.06	+1.54	−1.26	−0.21
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.75	15.55	−0.20	+0.65	−0.77	−0.08
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	18.00	17.51	−0.49	+0.29	−1.05	+0.27
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.50	15.01	−0.49	0.00	−0.47	−0.01
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	17.00	16.43	−0.57	0.00	−0.46	−0.11
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	15.42	−0.58	0.00	−0.47	−0.11
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	15.33	14.73	−0.60	0.00	−0.56	−0.03
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	15.67	15.05	−0.62	0.00	−0.56	−0.05
Foundational Education	Human Capital	17.25	16.62	−0.63	0.00	−0.46	−0.17
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	15.00	14.37	−0.63	0.00	−0.57	−0.06
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.00	14.31	−0.69	0.00	−0.57	−0.12
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.67	15.98	−0.69	0.00	−0.54	−0.15
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	18.40	17.68	−0.72	0.00	−0.74	+0.02
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.00	15.28	−0.72	0.00	−0.72	0.00
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	16.33	15.60	−0.73	0.00	−0.72	−0.01
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	15.50	14.77	−0.73	0.00	−0.73	−0.01
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.00	17.26	−0.74	0.00	−0.75	+0.01
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	16.00	15.24	−0.76	0.00	−0.68	−0.07
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	17.00	16.24	−0.76	0.00	−0.67	−0.09
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	16.23	−0.77	0.00	−0.67	−0.10
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.50	16.56	−0.94	+1.06	−1.90	−0.10
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.20	15.22	−0.98	0.00	−0.82	−0.15
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.80	15.77	−1.03	0.00	−0.76	−0.27
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	18.00	16.84	−1.16	0.00	−1.05	−0.10
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.20	15.98	−1.22	0.00	−1.08	−0.13
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	16.67	15.44	−1.23	0.00	−1.07	−0.16
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	15.75	−1.25	0.00	−0.76	−0.49
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.00	15.68	−1.32	0.00	−1.32	0.00
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	17.33	15.94	−1.39	0.00	−1.28	−0.11
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	17.00	15.61	−1.39	0.00	−1.28	−0.11
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	13.31	−1.69	0.00	−1.66	−0.04
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	16.50	14.35	−2.15	0.00	−2.20	+0.05

Seed 9 of experiment cycle-001.e3-kor-mirror-peer. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.