Simulation 69
South Korea, mirror a peer, 20 years, seed 69: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.64 in 2046; 51 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 69
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 74 (median simulation), 9 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.64 (+1.64)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 1 shock
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the mirror a peer (usa) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.05 +0.044 | |
| 2028 |
| Clean power threshold | 16.24 +0.190 |
| 2029 |
| 16.46 +0.220 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.74 +0.281 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.97 +0.234 | |
| 2032 |
| 17.23 +0.258 | |
| 2033 |
| 17.34 +0.109 | |
| 2034 |
| 17.44 +0.099 | |
| 2035 | No actions | Hybrid coercion | 17.28 −0.159 |
| 2036 |
| 17.32 +0.038 | |
| 2037 |
| 17.34 +0.021 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.36 +0.018 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.37 +0.015 | |
| 2040 |
| 17.39 +0.016 | |
| 2041 |
| 17.40 +0.012 | |
| 2042 |
| Automated discovery step | 17.54 +0.147 |
| 2043 | No actions | 17.68 +0.133 | |
| 2044 | No actions | 17.77 +0.096 | |
| 2045 | No actions | 17.69 −0.081 | |
| 2046 | No actions | 17.64 −0.050 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.657 | −125.1 | −1.95 |
| No shocks | +0.508 | +35.7 | +1.65 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | 0.000 | −0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.014 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.006 | −0.5 | −0.05 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.007 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.007 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.260 | +18.2 | +0.79 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.140 | +10.1 | +0.57 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.153 | +10.5 | +0.50 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 14.69 | +13.02 | +13.10 | −0.10 | +0.02 | 0.00 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 18.45 | +6.70 | +5.59 | −0.20 | +1.26 | +0.05 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 18.62 | +4.95 | +4.52 | −0.36 | +0.08 | +0.71 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +3.56 | −0.27 | −0.10 | +2.56 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 18.09 | +3.84 | +2.98 | −0.40 | +0.85 | +0.41 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 18.49 | +3.82 | +3.14 | −0.41 | +0.85 | +0.23 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 19.76 | +3.76 | +2.62 | −0.45 | +1.27 | +0.33 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.40 | +3.20 | +2.35 | −0.17 | +0.79 | +0.23 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 19.24 | +3.04 | +1.93 | −0.43 | +1.27 | +0.27 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.03 | +3.03 | +1.93 | −0.13 | +1.13 | +0.10 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 17.52 | +3.02 | +2.98 | −0.25 | +0.18 | +0.12 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 18.79 | +2.99 | +1.99 | −0.42 | +0.85 | +0.57 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 18.16 | +2.83 | +2.96 | −0.34 | +0.10 | +0.11 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 18.54 | +2.79 | +1.93 | −0.23 | +0.86 | +0.23 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 19.49 | +2.78 | +1.54 | −0.43 | +1.28 | +0.39 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 17.08 | +2.58 | +2.47 | −0.23 | +0.20 | +0.14 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 19.17 | +2.57 | +2.20 | −0.43 | +0.71 | +0.10 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 17.91 | +2.24 | +2.45 | −0.24 | −0.10 | +0.13 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 18.54 | +2.21 | +1.43 | −0.18 | +0.72 | +0.25 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 18.04 | +2.21 | +2.46 | −0.32 | −0.19 | +0.25 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 18.14 | +1.81 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +1.86 | +0.02 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 17.74 | +1.74 | +1.57 | −0.32 | +0.11 | +0.38 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 18.14 | +1.64 | +0.39 | −0.39 | +1.28 | +0.36 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 18.38 | +1.63 | +1.45 | −0.33 | +0.11 | +0.40 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.62 | +1.62 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +1.28 | +0.58 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 17.57 | +1.57 | +1.90 | −0.32 | −0.21 | +0.19 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 17.51 | +1.51 | +1.86 | −0.32 | −0.20 | +0.17 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 18.00 | +1.50 | +1.50 | −0.32 | +0.11 | +0.21 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 17.83 | +1.33 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +1.44 | +0.12 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 18.51 | +1.31 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +1.30 | +0.08 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.28 | +1.28 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +1.45 | +0.08 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.86 | +1.26 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +1.45 | +0.20 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 18.25 | +1.25 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +1.38 | +0.03 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 17.22 | +1.09 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +1.04 | +0.21 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.05 | +1.05 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.83 | +0.45 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 16.37 | +1.04 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.83 | +0.41 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 18.53 | +1.03 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +1.28 | +0.14 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 16.44 | +0.94 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +1.00 | +0.04 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 15.88 | +0.88 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.85 | +0.09 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 17.38 | +0.88 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.79 | +0.23 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 16.86 | +0.86 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.85 | +0.07 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 19.25 | +0.85 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.74 | +0.30 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 15.84 | +0.84 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.85 | +0.05 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 17.34 | +0.84 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.86 | +0.20 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 17.02 | +0.82 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.71 | +0.17 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 16.15 | +0.82 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.85 | +0.03 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 17.78 | +0.78 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.73 | +0.21 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 15.77 | +0.77 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.86 | +0.11 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.26 | +0.76 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.83 | +0.16 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 17.75 | +0.75 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.83 | +0.15 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 17.99 | +0.74 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.71 | +0.14 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 17.41 | +0.74 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.71 | +0.14 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 16.49 | +0.74 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.79 | +0.09 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 16.73 | +0.73 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.71 | +0.09 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 17.06 | +0.73 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.79 | +0.07 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 17.06 | +0.73 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.83 | +0.12 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 17.40 | +0.73 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.79 | +0.09 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.05 | +0.72 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.83 | +0.11 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 16.39 | +0.72 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.71 | +0.08 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.21 | +0.71 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.73 | +0.15 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.19 | +0.69 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.73 | +0.12 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 17.69 | +0.69 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.71 | +0.09 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 16.94 | +0.69 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.83 | +0.07 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.67 | +0.67 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.89 | +0.06 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 17.67 | +0.67 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.71 | +0.07 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.46 | +0.66 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.73 | +0.09 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 17.66 | +0.66 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.71 | +0.06 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 16.40 | +0.65 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.73 | +0.08 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 16.65 | +0.65 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.71 | +0.04 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 17.22 | +0.55 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.86 | −0.09 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.85 | +0.52 | +0.63 | −0.30 | +0.12 | +0.07 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 17.31 | +0.51 | +0.47 | −0.23 | +0.21 | +0.06 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 15.51 | +0.01 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.20 | +0.01 |
Seed 69 of experiment cycle-001.e3-kor-mirror-peer. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.