Simulation 74
South Korea, mirror a peer, 20 years, seed 74: median simulation of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.20 in 2046; 71 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 74
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 9 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 69 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.20 (+1.20)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 3
- From 2
- Events
- 1 shock
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the mirror a peer (usa) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.05 +0.044 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.13 +0.086 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.25 +0.114 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.43 +0.180 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.53 +0.107 | |
| 2032 |
| Breadbasket failure | 16.48 −0.058 |
| 2033 |
| 16.57 +0.096 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.68 +0.111 | |
| 2035 |
| 16.81 +0.128 | |
| 2036 |
| 16.91 +0.101 | |
| 2037 |
| 17.01 +0.092 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.06 +0.057 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.11 +0.047 | |
| 2040 |
| 17.14 +0.028 | |
| 2041 |
| 17.16 +0.018 | |
| 2042 |
| 17.17 +0.014 | |
| 2043 |
| 17.18 +0.011 | |
| 2044 |
| 17.19 +0.010 | |
| 2045 |
| 17.20 +0.007 | |
| 2046 |
| 17.20 +0.006 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.657 | −125.1 | −1.95 |
| No shocks | +0.508 | +35.7 | +1.65 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | 0.000 | −0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.014 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.006 | −0.5 | −0.05 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.007 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.007 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.260 | +18.2 | +0.79 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.140 | +10.1 | +0.57 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.153 | +10.5 | +0.50 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 17.76 | +16.09 | +16.22 | 0.00 | −0.13 | 0.00 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 17.17 | +5.42 | +5.62 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.02 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 18.67 | +5.00 | +4.54 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.57 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +3.40 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +2.38 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 18.16 | +3.49 | +3.37 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.22 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 17.68 | +3.43 | +3.17 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.36 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 18.12 | +2.79 | +2.87 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.03 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 17.24 | +2.74 | +2.81 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.13 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.63 | +2.63 | +2.56 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.16 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 18.84 | +2.51 | +2.55 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.14 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.58 | +2.33 | +2.54 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.02 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 18.15 | +2.32 | +2.08 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.34 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.91 | +2.31 | +2.37 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.04 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 18.10 | +2.30 | +2.01 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.39 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 16.73 | +2.23 | +2.48 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.15 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 17.87 | +2.20 | +2.29 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.10 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 18.67 | +2.17 | +2.15 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.20 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 16.33 | +2.13 | +2.25 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.09 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 18.24 | +2.04 | +1.95 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.19 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 18.44 | +1.94 | +1.79 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.25 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 18.61 | +1.90 | +1.75 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.24 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.65 | +1.85 | +2.03 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.42 | +1.82 | +1.88 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.13 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 17.80 | +1.80 | +1.77 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.13 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 17.76 | +1.76 | +1.74 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.12 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 17.47 | +1.72 | +1.93 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.19 | +1.69 | +1.89 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 17.67 | +1.67 | +1.83 | 0.00 | −0.13 | −0.02 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.15 | +1.65 | +1.85 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 17.63 | +1.63 | +1.46 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.27 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 18.35 | +1.60 | +1.37 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.33 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 17.25 | +1.50 | +1.71 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 18.17 | +1.50 | +1.62 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.07 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 17.97 | +1.47 | +1.41 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.16 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 17.64 | +1.31 | +1.65 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.05 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 17.03 | +1.28 | +1.64 | 0.00 | −0.36 | 0.00 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 18.02 | +0.52 | +0.55 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.06 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.79 | +0.46 | +0.61 | 0.00 | −0.10 | −0.05 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 16.70 | +0.37 | +0.55 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.04 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.24 | +0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.42 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 15.41 | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.30 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 17.08 | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.30 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.17 | +0.04 | +0.33 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.06 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 15.93 | −0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.02 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 16.12 | −0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.02 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 15.41 | −0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.04 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 18.30 | −0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.08 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 16.23 | −0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.10 | −0.01 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 16.57 | −0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.02 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 14.89 | −0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.10 | −0.01 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 15.22 | −0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.10 | −0.01 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 16.39 | −0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.27 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 14.88 | −0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.10 | −0.02 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 15.87 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | −0.01 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 14.87 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.06 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 16.86 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −0.02 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 16.86 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 16.85 | −0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.08 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 17.09 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −0.04 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 16.84 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −0.04 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 17.83 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | 0.00 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 16.30 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 15.30 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | 0.00 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 17.80 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 15.46 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 16.99 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 16.78 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | −0.04 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 16.42 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −0.07 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 17.07 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.22 | −0.03 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 16.74 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | −0.02 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 15.73 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | −0.02 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 16.42 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.36 | −0.03 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 17.04 | −0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | −0.01 |
Seed 74 of experiment cycle-001.e3-kor-mirror-peer. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.