E4 · cycle-002.e4-bwa

Botswana, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Botswana decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Severe pandemic in year 1, Global funding seizure in year 12, Breadbasket failure in year 19, Market access opening in year 20, Severe pandemic in year 24.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 3.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 8.84 (−0.76); From 9.60; 8.83 to 8.84
Rank by index: 61; From 51; 61 to 62
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 35; From 57; 35 to 39

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	9.60	8.83	8.84	8.84	higher
Rank by index	51	61	61	62	lower
Tier rank	57	35	35	39	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	673.1	626.8	627.3	627.7	higher
Goal-weighted score	673.1	626.8	627.3	627.7	higher
Resilient score	673.1	627.3 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 88 per cent, buy took 2 per cent, partner took 10 per cent of the 1,065 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Botswana actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 9.60; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 6.08; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 8.84; 8.79 to 8.88
Skill against persistence: +0.14; group error 2.94 against 3.40 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	3.02	0.94	1.26 1.2–1.3	+0.32	right
Strategic Infrastructure	9.99	6.50	11.08 11.0–11.2	+4.58	wrong
National Security	6.10	2.63	5.29 5.2–5.3	+2.66	right
Human Capital	9.97	7.71	11.35 11.3–11.4	+3.64	wrong
Information & Influence	9.14	4.66	7.27 7.2–7.3	+2.61	right
Governance & Integrity	13.88	9.98	13.56 13.5–13.6	+3.58	right
Financial Strength	13.47	9.18	11.38 11.3–11.4	+2.20	right
Production & Innovation	10.16	6.23	9.33 9.3–9.4	+3.10	right
Trade & Investment	10.65	6.86	9.02 9.0–9.1	+2.16	right

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1997 · S10 × 1.3 The HIV/AIDS epidemic was already a national emergency, with adult prevalence above 20 per cent by the late 1990s and life expectancy falling sharply, overwhelming health services for a decade.
2008 · S02 × 0.8 The global financial crisis collapsed diamond demand and prices, slashing government revenue and forcing a sharp fiscal adjustment.
2015 · S06 × 0.5 Severe El Niño drought hit livestock and water supplies, increasing food imports and rural distress.
2016 · S12 × 0.4 The SADC-EU Economic Partnership Agreement was signed, improving preferential market access for beef and other exports.
2020 · S10 × 0.8 COVID-19 closed borders and tourism, disrupted diamond sales and strained the health system, though Botswana's small population limited absolute mortality.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2002 · build · 5% each Vision 2016 and NDP 8 made human capital and the HIV/AIDS response national flagships, expanding primary schools, clinics and the first national ARV programme. (Foundational Education, Health System Capability, Population Health, Social Infrastructure)
1997–2003 · build · 2% each Public sector reform and anti-corruption institutional strengthening continued through the Directorate on Corruption and Economic Crime and financial management reforms. (Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Transparency, Oversight & Accountability)
1997–2000 · buy · 1% each The Botswana Defence Force modernised its air wing with second-hand Canadian CF-5 fighter aircraft and transport aircraft. (Air Power, Land Power)
2000–2008 · build · 5% each NDP 9 prioritised the North-South Carrier water transfer, road networks and electricity supply to support diversification and rural access. (Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Transport Infrastructure)
2008–2015 · partner · 2% each After the 2008 diamond shock Botswana pursued beneficiation and moved the De Beers rough diamond aggregation to Gaborone to climb the value chain. (Structural Transformation & Complexity, Global Value Chain Position, Advanced Manufacturing)
2011–2020 · build · 2% each NDP 10 and Vision 2036 pursued ICT infrastructure, TVET expansion, tertiary education and digital economy foundations. (Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Advanced Education, Technical & Vocational Skills, Technology Adoption & Diffusion)
2020–2026 · build · 2% each COVID-19 response, fiscal consolidation after diamond revenue collapse and economic recovery dominated the later years of NDP 11. (Health System Capability, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Economic Output & Productivity)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): Comparative capability data for a small African state in 1996 are scarce, especially for technology, military and digital domains, so those scores carry wide uncertainty. The HIV/AIDS demographic shock and extreme diamond dependence make health and economic scores sensitive to assumptions about the counterfactual. Governance scores are more confidently above the African average but remain below the world's advanced economies.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-002. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Botswana played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 9.60 to a median of 8.84 (−0.76), with 90 per cent of simulations between 8.83 and 8.85 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 51 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 57. Its base income is 250 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,064 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure (build, 103 credits, 9.7 per cent); Energy Infrastructure (build, 101 credits, 9.5 per cent); Health System Capability (build, 100 credits, 9.4 per cent); Transport Infrastructure (build, 91 credits, 8.6 per cent); Foundational Education (build, 71 credits, 6.7 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 88 per cent, partner 10 per cent, buy 2 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.062, and the most repeated action appeared in 43 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Human Capital; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 16 to 20, Human Capital; rounds 21 to 25, Human Capital; rounds 26 to 30, Human Capital [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 4 shocks and 1 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −42.4 points each); S02 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −15.0 points each); S06 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −12.6 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 30 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Trade Facilitation & Logistics −3.76; Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −3.35; Labour & Employment −3.32; Biotechnology & Health Technologies −3.04 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure to Agriculture & Food Infrastructure (+0.45 points); Transport Infrastructure to Trade Facilitation & Logistics (+0.44 points); Economic Output & Productivity to Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (−0.09 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 61 (5th to 95th percentile 61 to 62), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 35; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 627 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.898 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.898 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.966: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.013 and −0.006, for example 1997 build Foundational Education (13 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.966 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 5 tiers (30 simulations above 2).

saturation_low (warn): 100% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 2 groups).

retired_words (warn): e4-bwa/report.md: 'simulations' 2 time(s), first near line 38; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 25) ends −0.02 from it, with 4 shocks and 1 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 9.60 the model ends at 8.84, where the 2026 ratings put it at 6.08. Group scores miss by 2.94 points on average, against 3.41 for assuming nothing changed (skill +0.14); the change in each domain has the right sign in 78 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: critical technology (+0.32); furthest above: strategic infrastructure (+4.58) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	For example
Hold instead of the method	−0.966	−74.5
No shocks	+1.898	+133.0
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.012	−1.0	1997 build Foundational Education (13 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.010	−0.8	1997 build Health System Capability (13 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.010	−0.8	1997 build Population Health (13 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.006	−0.5	1997 build Social Infrastructure (13 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.013	−1.1	1998 build Foundational Education (13 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.967	+68.3	1997 S10 (-52.1 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.509	+35.6	2020 S10 (-32.7 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.290	+19.4	2008 S02 (-15.0 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	12.0	−15.0
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	100 per cent	19.0	−12.6
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	12.5	−42.4
Market access opening S12	Upside	100 per cent	20.0	+11.6

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	8.92	13.71 13.67 to 13.75	+4.79	5.30	44
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.71	13.35 13.31 to 13.40	+3.64	4.59	103
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.20	11.64 11.54 to 11.72	+3.44	4.38	102
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.00	14.10 14.03 to 14.17	+3.10	3.79	91
Population Health	Human Capital	8.48	11.38 11.33 to 11.45	+2.90	4.33	71
Foundational Education	Human Capital	12.40	15.15 15.11 to 15.20	+2.75	4.28	71
Advanced Education	Human Capital	10.10	12.73 12.65 to 12.82	+2.63	3.19	44
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.35	13.40 13.33 to 13.48	+2.05	4.01	100
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	8.19	9.70 9.58 to 9.84	+1.51	1.99	35
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.76	13.20 13.18 to 13.22	+1.44	2.21	44
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.48	10.80 10.76 to 10.84	+1.32	3.42	35
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	10.80	12.11 12.06 to 12.14	+1.31	2.76	44
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.30	13.52 13.47 to 13.65	+1.22	2.84	71
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	12.80	13.66 13.65 to 13.67	+0.86	1.55	33
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.06	15.77 15.72 to 15.80	+0.71	1.26	33
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.20	9.80 9.78 to 9.83	+0.60	2.26	35
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	15.20	15.23 15.18 to 15.26	+0.03	1.27	33
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	0.00	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	11.63	11.39 11.34 to 11.45	−0.24	1.42	30
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	11.90	11.52 11.37 to 11.71	−0.38	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	7.98	7.53 7.47 to 7.57	−0.45	0.63	10
Land Power	National Security	8.80	8.34 8.28 to 8.38	−0.46	0.59	10
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	13.29	12.79 12.79 to 12.80	−0.50	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.40	8.84 8.80 to 8.88	−0.56	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.26	8.69 8.56 to 8.79	−0.57	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	14.79	14.21 14.15 to 14.27	−0.58	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	13.73	13.02 13.00 to 13.03	−0.71	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	8.11	7.35 7.26 to 7.41	−0.76	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.20	7.38 7.35 to 7.41	−0.82	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.92	10.02 9.97 to 10.09	−0.90	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	2.50	1.59 1.58 to 1.60	−0.91	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.97	4.06 4.00 to 4.10	−0.91	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	13.71	12.77 12.70 to 12.81	−0.94	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	9.14	8.18 8.12 to 8.25	−0.96	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.51	10.54 10.40 to 10.70	−0.97	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.09	8.11 8.09 to 8.14	−0.98	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	9.32	8.33 8.24 to 8.39	−0.99	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.94	5.89 5.83 to 5.97	−1.05	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.63	12.51 12.41 to 12.57	−1.12	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.51	3.33 3.21 to 3.42	−1.18	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	3.62	2.38 2.29 to 2.44	−1.24	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	12.42	11.04 11.00 to 11.07	−1.38	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.39	0.00 0.00 to 0.01	−1.39	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.44	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−1.44	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	7.21	5.71 5.66 to 5.75	−1.50	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	8.05	6.50 6.49 to 6.51	−1.55	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	4.60	3.04 3.03 to 3.05	−1.56	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	3.00	1.39 1.38 to 1.40	−1.61	0.00	0
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	1.62	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−1.62	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.90	1.25 1.23 to 1.27	−1.65	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.23	8.58 8.55 to 8.62	−1.65	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.28	1.61 1.59 to 1.66	−1.67	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	7.61	5.91 5.87 to 5.92	−1.70	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	10.85	9.14 9.10 to 9.19	−1.71	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	10.43	8.72 8.67 to 8.77	−1.71	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	2.43	0.67 0.62 to 0.70	−1.76	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	11.63	9.80 9.76 to 9.82	−1.83	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.50	6.66 6.61 to 6.70	−1.84	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	13.73	11.86 11.80 to 11.93	−1.87	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	12.37	10.49 10.44 to 10.55	−1.88	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.18	3.26 3.18 to 3.35	−1.92	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	13.56	11.62 11.61 to 11.62	−1.94	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	12.51	10.51 10.50 to 10.52	−2.00	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	13.26	11.22 11.16 to 11.28	−2.04	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.93	7.89 7.86 to 7.93	−2.04	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.92	9.85 9.83 to 9.86	−2.07	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	8.08	5.94 5.88 to 6.03	−2.14	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	14.01	11.74 11.67 to 11.80	−2.27	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	15.09	12.72 12.70 to 12.74	−2.37	0.95	30
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	9.46	6.56 6.53 to 6.58	−2.90	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	11.15	8.21 8.09 to 8.30	−2.94	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.02	6.07 6.01 to 6.10	−2.95	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	4.34	1.36 1.35 to 1.38	−2.98	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 1.7e-13
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 16.056
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.9e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 0.72 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 5 tiers (30 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 51; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
warnsaturation_low100% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 2 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.062; most funded group hard.strategic_infrastructure.water_sanitation_and_waste_infrastructure
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 43% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-002.e4-bwa. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Botswana (BWA)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Severe pandemic in year 1, Global funding seizure in year 12, Breadbasket failure in year 19, Market access opening in year 20, Severe pandemic in year 24
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 250.3 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-002), cycle 2 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 4.0 seconds in all; 977 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.