Simulation 29
Botswana, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 29: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.60 at the 1996 position, 8.84 in 2026; 164 actions over 30 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 29
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 2 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 9 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 8.84 (−0.76)
- From 9.60
- Rank by index
- 61
- From 51
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Severe pandemic | 8.87 −0.725 |
| 1998 |
| 8.88 +0.009 | |
| 1999 |
| 8.89 +0.009 | |
| 2000 |
| 8.91 +0.022 | |
| 2001 |
| 8.95 +0.033 | |
| 2002 |
| 8.98 +0.035 | |
| 2003 |
| 9.02 +0.042 | |
| 2004 |
| 9.06 +0.037 | |
| 2005 |
| 9.09 +0.031 | |
| 2006 |
| 9.12 +0.028 | |
| 2007 |
| 9.14 +0.023 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 8.94 −0.196 |
| 2009 |
| 8.97 +0.029 | |
| 2010 |
| 9.00 +0.024 | |
| 2011 |
| 9.02 +0.026 | |
| 2012 |
| 9.05 +0.026 | |
| 2013 |
| 9.08 +0.030 | |
| 2014 |
| 9.11 +0.034 | |
| 2015 |
| Breadbasket failure | 8.97 −0.143 |
| 2016 |
| Market access opening | 9.05 +0.079 |
| 2017 |
| 9.12 +0.071 | |
| 2018 |
| 9.19 +0.072 | |
| 2019 |
| 9.21 +0.020 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 8.78 −0.436 |
| 2021 |
| 8.79 +0.017 | |
| 2022 |
| 8.80 +0.011 | |
| 2023 |
| 8.81 +0.009 | |
| 2024 |
| 8.82 +0.008 | |
| 2025 |
| 8.83 +0.006 | |
| 2026 |
| 8.84 +0.012 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| National Security | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Human Capital | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Information & Influence | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Governance & Integrity | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Financial Strength | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Production & Innovation | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| Trade & Investment | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.966 | −74.5 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +1.898 | +133.0 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.012 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.010 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.010 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.006 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.013 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.967 | +68.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.509 | +35.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.290 | +19.4 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 8.92 | 13.69 | +4.77 | +5.29 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.13 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.71 | 13.36 | +3.65 | +4.58 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.14 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.20 | 11.55 | +3.35 | +4.37 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.41 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.00 | 14.08 | +3.08 | +3.79 | 0.00 | −0.45 | −0.26 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 8.48 | 11.36 | +2.88 | +4.32 | 0.00 | −1.72 | +0.28 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 12.40 | 15.20 | +2.80 | +4.28 | 0.00 | −1.53 | +0.04 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 10.10 | 12.82 | +2.72 | +3.18 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.39 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 11.35 | 13.35 | +2.00 | +4.01 | 0.00 | −1.67 | −0.34 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.19 | 9.73 | +1.54 | +1.99 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.31 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.76 | 13.18 | +1.42 | +2.21 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.11 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 9.48 | 10.77 | +1.29 | +3.42 | 0.00 | −1.94 | −0.19 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 10.80 | 12.06 | +1.26 | +2.76 | 0.00 | −1.47 | −0.03 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.30 | 13.47 | +1.17 | +2.84 | 0.00 | −1.20 | −0.46 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.80 | 13.66 | +0.86 | +1.55 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.03 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.06 | 15.72 | +0.66 | +1.26 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.03 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 9.20 | 9.80 | +0.60 | +2.26 | 0.00 | −1.58 | −0.07 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 15.20 | 15.23 | +0.03 | +1.27 | 0.00 | −1.24 | −0.01 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | −0.05 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 11.90 | 11.72 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.81 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 11.63 | 11.44 | −0.19 | +1.41 | 0.00 | −1.80 | +0.20 |
| Air Power | National Security | 7.98 | 7.55 | −0.43 | +0.63 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.25 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.26 | 8.79 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.45 |
| Land Power | National Security | 8.80 | 8.33 | −0.47 | +0.59 | 0.00 | −0.80 | −0.26 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 13.29 | 12.80 | −0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | 0.00 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.79 | 14.27 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.14 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 9.40 | 8.85 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.35 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 13.73 | 13.02 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.04 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 8.11 | 7.31 | −0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | +0.13 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.20 | 7.36 | −0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | −0.04 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.92 | 10.06 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.15 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 2.50 | 1.59 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | −0.04 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.97 | 4.04 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.15 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 9.14 | 8.21 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.14 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 9.09 | 8.14 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.04 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 13.71 | 12.73 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.20 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 9.32 | 8.23 | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.31 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.51 | 10.40 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.51 | +0.41 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 6.94 | 5.83 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.30 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.63 | 12.51 | −1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.30 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 4.51 | 3.29 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | −0.38 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 3.62 | 2.31 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | −0.46 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.39 | 0.01 | −1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.63 | +0.03 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.42 | 11.00 | −1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | −0.07 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.44 | 0.00 | −1.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.63 | −0.05 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 7.21 | 5.77 | −1.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.60 | +0.15 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 8.05 | 6.49 | −1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.58 | +0.02 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.60 | 3.03 | −1.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.55 | −0.01 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 3.00 | 1.39 | −1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.01 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.62 | 0.00 | −1.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.73 | +0.01 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.90 | 1.27 | −1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.04 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 10.23 | 8.59 | −1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.70 | +0.06 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 10.85 | 9.18 | −1.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.52 | −0.14 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.28 | 1.60 | −1.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.58 | −0.10 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.61 | 5.91 | −1.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.12 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 10.43 | 8.65 | −1.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.54 | −0.24 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 8.50 | 6.72 | −1.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.58 | −0.20 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 2.43 | 0.63 | −1.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.60 | −0.20 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.18 | 3.37 | −1.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.54 | −0.28 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 11.63 | 9.80 | −1.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.70 | −0.14 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.73 | 11.83 | −1.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.61 | −0.29 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 12.37 | 10.43 | −1.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.66 | −0.27 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.56 | 11.61 | −1.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.92 | −0.03 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 12.51 | 10.50 | −2.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.96 | −0.05 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 9.93 | 7.91 | −2.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.90 | −0.12 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.92 | 9.84 | −2.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.00 | −0.08 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.26 | 11.16 | −2.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.93 | −0.18 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 8.08 | 5.94 | −2.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.94 | −0.19 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.01 | 11.79 | −2.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.09 | −0.13 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 15.09 | 12.70 | −2.39 | +0.96 | 0.00 | −3.26 | −0.09 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 11.15 | 8.30 | −2.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.38 | +0.52 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 9.46 | 6.58 | −2.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.85 | −0.03 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 9.02 | 6.10 | −2.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.13 | +0.21 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.34 | 1.36 | −2.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.94 | −0.04 |
Seed 29 of experiment cycle-002.e4-bwa. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.