A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-bwa

Simulation 2

Botswana, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 2: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.60 at the 1996 position, 8.83 in 2026; 164 actions over 30 rounds and 4 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 2

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 29 (median simulation), 9 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 8.83 (−0.77); From 9.60
Rank by index: 62; From 51
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 4 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Foundational Education 13 Build Health System Capability 13 Build Population Health 13 Build Social Infrastructure 13 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 Buy Air Power 3 Buy Land Power 3	Severe pandemic	8.87 −0.725
1998	Build Foundational Education 13 Build Health System Capability 13 Build Population Health 13 Build Social Infrastructure 13 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 Buy Air Power 3 Buy Land Power 3		8.88 +0.009
1999	Build Foundational Education 12 Build Health System Capability 12 Build Population Health 12 Build Social Infrastructure 12 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 Buy Air Power 2 Buy Land Power 2		8.89 +0.009
2000	Build Foundational Education 12 Build Health System Capability 12 Build Population Health 12 Build Social Infrastructure 12 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 Buy Air Power 2 Buy Land Power 2 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 12 Build Energy Infrastructure 12 Build Transport Infrastructure 12		8.91 +0.024
2001	Build Foundational Education 11 Build Health System Capability 11 Build Population Health 11 Build Social Infrastructure 11 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 11 Build Energy Infrastructure 11 Build Transport Infrastructure 11		8.95 +0.034
2002	Build Foundational Education 11 Build Health System Capability 11 Build Population Health 11 Build Social Infrastructure 11 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 11 Build Energy Infrastructure 10		8.98 +0.036
2003	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 11 Build Energy Infrastructure 11 Build Transport Infrastructure 11		9.02 +0.042
2004	Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 11 Build Energy Infrastructure 11 Build Transport Infrastructure 11		9.06 +0.036
2005	Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 11 Build Energy Infrastructure 11 Build Transport Infrastructure 11		9.09 +0.030
2006	Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 11 Build Energy Infrastructure 11 Build Transport Infrastructure 11		9.12 +0.027
2007	Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 11 Build Energy Infrastructure 11 Build Transport Infrastructure 11		9.14 +0.022
2008	Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 11 Build Energy Infrastructure 11 Build Transport Infrastructure 11 Partner Structural Transformation & Complexity 5 Partner Global Value Chain Position 5 Partner Advanced Manufacturing 5	Global funding seizure	8.94 −0.198
2009	Partner Structural Transformation & Complexity 5 Partner Global Value Chain Position 5 Partner Advanced Manufacturing 5		8.97 +0.028
2010	Partner Structural Transformation & Complexity 4 Partner Global Value Chain Position 4 Partner Advanced Manufacturing 4		8.99 +0.023
2011	Partner Structural Transformation & Complexity 4 Partner Global Value Chain Position 4 Partner Advanced Manufacturing 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Advanced Education 4 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 4 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 4		9.02 +0.025
2012	Partner Structural Transformation & Complexity 4 Partner Global Value Chain Position 4 Partner Advanced Manufacturing 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Advanced Education 4 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 4 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 4		9.04 +0.026
2013	Partner Structural Transformation & Complexity 4 Partner Global Value Chain Position 4 Partner Advanced Manufacturing 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Advanced Education 4 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 4 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 4		9.07 +0.030
2014	Partner Structural Transformation & Complexity 4 Partner Global Value Chain Position 4 Partner Advanced Manufacturing 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Advanced Education 4 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 4 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 4		9.11 +0.034
2015	Partner Structural Transformation & Complexity 4 Partner Global Value Chain Position 4 Partner Advanced Manufacturing 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Advanced Education 4 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 4 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 4	Breadbasket failure	8.96 −0.143
2016	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Advanced Education 4 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 4 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 4	Market access opening	9.04 +0.079
2017	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Advanced Education 4 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 4 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 4		9.11 +0.071
2018	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Advanced Education 4 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 4 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 4		9.19 +0.072
2019	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Advanced Education 4 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 4 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 4		9.21 +0.019
2020	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Advanced Education 4 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 4 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 4 Build Health System Capability 4 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Build Economic Output & Productivity 4	Severe pandemic	8.77 −0.436
2021	Build Health System Capability 4 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Build Economic Output & Productivity 4		8.79 +0.016
2022	Build Health System Capability 4 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Build Economic Output & Productivity 4		8.80 +0.011
2023	Build Health System Capability 4 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Build Economic Output & Productivity 4		8.81 +0.009
2024	Build Health System Capability 4 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Build Economic Output & Productivity 4		8.81 +0.008
2025	Build Health System Capability 4 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Build Economic Output & Productivity 4		8.82 +0.006
2026	Build Health System Capability 4 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Build Economic Output & Productivity 4		8.83 +0.011

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	11	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Strategic Infrastructure	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
National Security	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Human Capital	10	11	11	10	10	9	7	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Information & Influence	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Governance & Integrity	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Financial Strength	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Production & Innovation	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	11	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	9
Trade & Investment	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.966	−74.5
No shocks	+1.898	+133.0
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.012	−1.0
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.010	−0.8
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.010	−0.8
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.006	−0.5
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.013	−1.1
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.967	+68.3
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.509	+35.6
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.290	+19.4

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	8.92	13.67	+4.75	+5.30	−0.65	+0.10
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.71	13.28	+3.57	+4.60	−0.79	−0.23
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.20	11.57	+3.37	+4.37	−0.61	−0.38
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.00	14.02	+3.02	+3.79	−0.45	−0.32
Population Health	Human Capital	8.48	11.42	+2.94	+4.32	−1.72	+0.34
Foundational Education	Human Capital	12.40	15.14	+2.74	+4.28	−1.53	−0.02
Advanced Education	Human Capital	10.10	12.67	+2.57	+3.20	−0.85	+0.22
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.35	13.40	+2.05	+4.01	−1.67	−0.29
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.76	13.20	+1.44	+2.21	−0.69	−0.09
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	8.19	9.62	+1.43	+2.00	−0.76	+0.20
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.30	13.65	+1.35	+2.83	−1.20	−0.28
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.48	10.83	+1.35	+3.42	−1.94	−0.13
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	10.80	12.10	+1.30	+2.76	−1.47	0.00
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	12.80	13.66	+0.86	+1.55	−0.65	−0.03
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.06	15.74	+0.68	+1.26	−0.62	+0.04
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.20	9.81	+0.61	+2.26	−1.58	−0.07
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−0.90	−0.02
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	15.20	15.18	−0.02	+1.27	−1.24	−0.06
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	11.63	11.40	−0.23	+1.42	−1.80	+0.15
Land Power	National Security	8.80	8.34	−0.46	+0.59	−0.80	−0.25
Air Power	National Security	7.98	7.51	−0.47	+0.63	−0.81	−0.28
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	13.29	12.79	−0.50	0.00	−0.50	0.00
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	11.90	11.39	−0.51	0.00	−0.99	+0.47
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	14.79	14.27	−0.52	0.00	−0.66	+0.14
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.26	8.70	−0.56	0.00	−0.92	+0.35
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.40	8.82	−0.58	0.00	−0.91	+0.32
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	13.73	13.03	−0.70	0.00	−0.68	−0.03
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.20	7.41	−0.79	0.00	−0.80	+0.01
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	8.11	7.26	−0.85	0.00	−0.93	+0.08
Maritime Power	National Security	2.50	1.60	−0.90	0.00	−0.87	−0.04
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	9.14	8.23	−0.91	0.00	−0.79	−0.12
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.92	9.99	−0.93	0.00	−0.72	−0.22
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.09	8.15	−0.94	0.00	−0.91	−0.03
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	13.71	12.77	−0.94	0.00	−0.78	−0.17
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.97	4.02	−0.95	0.00	−0.78	−0.17
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.94	5.98	−0.96	0.00	−0.81	−0.15
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	9.32	8.35	−0.97	0.00	−0.78	−0.19
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.51	10.50	−1.01	0.00	−1.51	+0.51
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.63	12.57	−1.06	0.00	−0.82	−0.24
Space Operations	National Security	3.62	2.41	−1.21	0.00	−0.85	−0.36
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.51	3.24	−1.27	0.00	−0.84	−0.42
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.39	0.00	−1.39	0.00	−1.63	+0.01
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	12.42	11.03	−1.39	0.00	−1.35	−0.04
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.44	0.00	−1.44	0.00	−1.63	−0.04
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	7.21	5.71	−1.50	0.00	−1.60	+0.10
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	4.60	3.05	−1.55	0.00	−1.55	+0.01
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	8.05	6.49	−1.56	0.00	−1.58	+0.02
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	3.00	1.39	−1.61	0.00	−1.59	−0.01
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	1.62	0.00	−1.62	0.00	−1.73	−0.01
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.90	1.24	−1.66	0.00	−1.59	−0.07
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	10.43	8.75	−1.68	0.00	−1.54	−0.15
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.23	8.55	−1.68	0.00	−1.70	+0.01
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.28	1.58	−1.70	0.00	−1.58	−0.11
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	7.61	5.89	−1.72	0.00	−1.59	−0.13
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	10.85	9.10	−1.75	0.00	−1.52	−0.22
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	2.43	0.63	−1.80	0.00	−1.60	−0.20
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	11.63	9.83	−1.80	0.00	−1.70	−0.11
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	12.37	10.52	−1.85	0.00	−1.66	−0.18
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.50	6.65	−1.85	0.00	−1.58	−0.27
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	13.73	11.88	−1.85	0.00	−1.61	−0.24
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.18	3.28	−1.90	0.00	−1.54	−0.36
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	13.56	11.62	−1.94	0.00	−1.92	−0.02
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	12.51	10.51	−2.00	0.00	−1.96	−0.05
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	13.26	11.23	−2.03	0.00	−1.93	−0.11
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.92	9.85	−2.07	0.00	−2.00	−0.08
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.93	7.82	−2.11	0.00	−1.90	−0.21
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	8.08	5.97	−2.11	0.00	−1.94	−0.17
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	14.01	11.66	−2.35	0.00	−2.09	−0.26
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	15.09	12.71	−2.38	+0.95	−3.26	−0.08
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	11.15	8.24	−2.91	0.00	−3.38	+0.47
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	9.46	6.53	−2.93	0.00	−2.85	−0.08
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.02	6.08	−2.94	0.00	−3.13	+0.19
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	4.34	1.35	−2.99	0.00	−2.94	−0.05

Seed 2 of experiment cycle-002.e4-bwa. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.