Simulation 16
China, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 16: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.13 at the 1996 position, 5.49 in 2026; 72 actions over 30 rounds and 8 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 16
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 29 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 11 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 5.49 (−3.63)
- From 9.13
- Rank by index
- 111
- From 55
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 8 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizure | 8.98 −0.151 |
| 1998 |
| Core disaster | 8.42 −0.559 |
| 1999 |
| 8.43 +0.014 | |
| 2000 |
| 8.44 +0.005 | |
| 2001 |
| Market access opening | 8.49 +0.051 |
| 2002 |
| 8.54 +0.054 | |
| 2003 |
| Severe pandemic | 8.29 −0.251 |
| 2004 |
| 8.32 +0.027 | |
| 2005 |
| 8.34 +0.020 | |
| 2006 |
| 8.36 +0.025 | |
| 2007 |
| 8.38 +0.017 | |
| 2008 |
| Core disasterGlobal funding seizure | 7.58 −0.801 |
| 2009 |
| 7.57 −0.006 | |
| 2010 |
| 7.55 −0.018 | |
| 2011 |
| 7.54 −0.012 | |
| 2012 |
| 7.53 −0.013 | |
| 2013 |
| 7.51 −0.014 | |
| 2014 |
| 7.51 −0.003 | |
| 2015 |
| Global funding seizure | 7.31 −0.199 |
| 2016 | No actions | 7.29 −0.017 | |
| 2017 | No actions | 7.27 −0.019 | |
| 2018 | No actions | Trade bloc rupture | 7.09 −0.179 |
| 2019 | No actions | 6.89 −0.205 | |
| 2020 | No actions | Severe pandemic | 5.84 −1.052 |
| 2021 | No actions | 5.78 −0.058 | |
| 2022 | No actions | 5.71 −0.069 | |
| 2023 | No actions | 5.65 −0.064 | |
| 2024 | No actions | 5.59 −0.059 | |
| 2025 | No actions | 5.53 −0.055 | |
| 2026 | No actions | 5.49 −0.041 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| National Security | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Information & Influence | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Governance & Integrity | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Financial Strength | 15 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 25 |
| Production & Innovation | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 |
| Trade & Investment | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.181 | −12.7 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +4.647 | +331.6 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | +0.007 | +0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.006 | +0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.004 | +0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.003 | +0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | +0.007 | +0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +1.083 | +77.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +1.231 | +88.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +1.027 | +73.9 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 10.94 | 11.18 | +0.24 | +5.41 | −0.63 | −4.20 | −0.34 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.00 | 10.50 | −0.50 | +3.90 | −0.43 | −3.05 | −0.92 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.81 | 9.27 | −0.54 | +3.59 | −0.38 | −3.09 | −0.66 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 9.29 | 8.15 | −1.14 | +1.51 | −0.22 | −1.94 | −0.50 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 7.13 | 5.33 | −1.80 | 0.00 | −0.09 | −1.69 | −0.02 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 9.86 | 7.68 | −2.18 | 0.00 | −0.13 | −2.02 | −0.04 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 9.27 | 7.08 | −2.19 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −1.86 | −0.13 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.77 | 7.57 | −2.20 | +0.89 | −0.34 | −2.31 | −0.43 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.14 | 3.93 | −2.21 | 0.00 | −0.32 | −1.72 | −0.18 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.01 | 7.80 | −2.21 | +0.84 | −0.34 | −2.29 | −0.42 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 7.02 | 4.79 | −2.23 | 0.00 | −0.08 | −2.03 | −0.13 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.35 | 7.08 | −2.27 | +0.63 | −0.70 | −1.97 | −0.23 |
| Air Power | National Security | 6.32 | 4.03 | −2.29 | 0.00 | −0.33 | −1.71 | −0.26 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 6.55 | 4.23 | −2.32 | 0.00 | −0.07 | −2.05 | −0.20 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 5.93 | 3.61 | −2.32 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −2.07 | −0.20 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 11.30 | 8.96 | −2.34 | 0.00 | −0.15 | −1.85 | −0.35 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 8.25 | 5.89 | −2.36 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −2.05 | −0.14 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.44 | 3.04 | −2.40 | +0.56 | −0.32 | −2.60 | −0.04 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.20 | 5.76 | −2.44 | 0.00 | −0.46 | −1.66 | −0.32 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 8.17 | 5.69 | −2.48 | 0.00 | −0.46 | −1.66 | −0.36 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 3.62 | 1.12 | −2.50 | +0.70 | −0.17 | −2.97 | −0.06 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.16 | 2.62 | −2.54 | 0.00 | −0.28 | −2.19 | −0.06 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 10.47 | 7.93 | −2.54 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −1.60 | −0.31 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 8.52 | 5.95 | −2.57 | 0.00 | −0.17 | −2.04 | −0.36 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 8.12 | 5.53 | −2.59 | 0.00 | −0.45 | −1.66 | −0.47 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 10.61 | 8.02 | −2.59 | 0.00 | −0.64 | −1.60 | −0.35 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 5.32 | 2.73 | −2.59 | 0.00 | −0.30 | −2.18 | −0.11 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 8.40 | 5.79 | −2.61 | 0.00 | −0.10 | −1.97 | −0.55 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.24 | 2.62 | −2.62 | 0.00 | −0.29 | −2.18 | −0.14 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 5.08 | 2.43 | −2.65 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −2.19 | −0.18 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 9.40 | 6.68 | −2.72 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −2.01 | −0.51 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.86 | 7.12 | −2.74 | 0.00 | −0.57 | −1.62 | −0.55 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 10.16 | 7.24 | −2.92 | 0.00 | −0.20 | −1.99 | −0.73 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.37 | 7.42 | −2.95 | 0.00 | −0.50 | −2.26 | −0.18 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.12 | 8.12 | −3.00 | +2.58 | −0.46 | −4.91 | −0.21 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.78 | 1.58 | −3.20 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −2.92 | −0.09 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.75 | 7.52 | −3.23 | 0.00 | −0.45 | −2.71 | −0.06 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.61 | 5.26 | −3.35 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −2.07 | −0.72 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.85 | 5.47 | −3.38 | 0.00 | −0.34 | −2.77 | −0.26 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 8.29 | 4.86 | −3.43 | 0.00 | −0.31 | −2.79 | −0.33 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 9.93 | 6.49 | −3.44 | +2.52 | −0.40 | −4.83 | −0.72 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.73 | 9.12 | −3.61 | 0.00 | −0.39 | −2.19 | −1.02 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 10.97 | 7.32 | −3.65 | 0.00 | −0.21 | −2.76 | −0.68 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.84 | 7.18 | −3.66 | 0.00 | −0.32 | −2.25 | −1.10 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 6.61 | 2.90 | −3.71 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −2.85 | −0.67 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.28 | 7.50 | −3.78 | 0.00 | −0.33 | −2.60 | −0.85 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 9.18 | 5.40 | −3.78 | 0.00 | −0.11 | −2.84 | −0.82 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.46 | 8.68 | −3.78 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −1.55 | −1.52 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 10.28 | 6.47 | −3.81 | 0.00 | −0.11 | −3.24 | −0.46 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 11.98 | 7.95 | −4.03 | 0.00 | −0.13 | −3.38 | −0.53 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 11.63 | 7.51 | −4.12 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −3.18 | −0.47 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 9.94 | 5.79 | −4.15 | 0.00 | −0.34 | −3.63 | −0.19 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 8.04 | 3.81 | −4.23 | 0.00 | −0.24 | −3.72 | −0.28 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.79 | 2.46 | −4.33 | 0.00 | −0.30 | −3.92 | −0.10 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 8.64 | 4.30 | −4.34 | 0.00 | −0.26 | −3.69 | −0.39 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.21 | 4.83 | −4.38 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −3.95 | −0.24 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 10.72 | 6.25 | −4.47 | +1.51 | −0.39 | −5.01 | −0.58 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 8.97 | 4.37 | −4.60 | 0.00 | −0.29 | −4.01 | −0.30 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.06 | 6.43 | −4.63 | +1.49 | −0.40 | −5.17 | −0.55 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.52 | 4.82 | −4.70 | 0.00 | −0.29 | −3.65 | −0.77 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.35 | 4.64 | −4.71 | 0.00 | −0.21 | −3.56 | −0.94 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 8.21 | 3.33 | −4.88 | 0.00 | −0.21 | −4.32 | −0.34 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 9.49 | 4.35 | −5.14 | 0.00 | −0.17 | −4.76 | −0.20 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 9.75 | 4.54 | −5.21 | 0.00 | −0.14 | −3.99 | −1.08 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 9.42 | 4.12 | −5.30 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −4.77 | −0.37 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.50 | 5.10 | −5.40 | 0.00 | −0.31 | −4.38 | −0.70 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.03 | 4.34 | −5.69 | 0.00 | −0.20 | −4.10 | −1.39 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 8.98 | 3.29 | −5.69 | 0.00 | −0.22 | −5.04 | −0.43 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 10.76 | 4.62 | −6.14 | 0.00 | −0.18 | −5.18 | −0.77 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 9.45 | 3.04 | −6.41 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −6.17 | −0.12 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 9.92 | 3.44 | −6.48 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −5.60 | −0.65 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 10.77 | 3.25 | −7.52 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −7.16 | −0.14 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 9.59 | 1.24 | −8.35 | 0.00 | −0.07 | −7.41 | −0.87 |
Seed 16 of experiment cycle-002.e4-chn. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.