A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-chn

Simulation 29

China, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 29: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.13 at the 1996 position, 5.47 in 2026; 72 actions over 30 rounds and 8 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 29

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 16 (median simulation), 11 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 5.47 (−3.66); From 9.13
Rank by index: 111; From 55
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 8 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Transport Infrastructure 12 Build Energy Infrastructure 12 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 12 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 12 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 11	Global funding seizure	8.98 −0.151
1998	Build Transport Infrastructure 12 Build Energy Infrastructure 12 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 12 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 12 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 4	Core disaster	8.42 −0.559
1999	Build Transport Infrastructure 11 Build Energy Infrastructure 11 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 11 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 4		8.43 +0.014
2000	Build Transport Infrastructure 10 Build Energy Infrastructure 10 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 10 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 7		8.44 +0.005
2001	Build Transport Infrastructure 10 Build Energy Infrastructure 10 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 10 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 6	Market access opening	8.49 +0.051
2002	Build Transport Infrastructure 10 Build Energy Infrastructure 10 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 10 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 10 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 2		8.54 +0.054
2003	Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 4 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 4 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Partner Resource Infrastructure 4 Partner Global Value Chain Position 4	Severe pandemic	8.29 −0.251
2004	Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 4 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 4 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Partner Resource Infrastructure 4 Partner Global Value Chain Position 4		8.32 +0.028
2005	Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 4 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 4 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Partner Resource Infrastructure 4 Partner Global Value Chain Position 4		8.34 +0.021
2006	Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 4 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 4 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Partner Resource Infrastructure 4 Partner Global Value Chain Position 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 10 Build Energy Infrastructure 10 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 10 Build Space Technologies 10 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 10		8.36 +0.025
2007	Build Transport Infrastructure 10 Build Energy Infrastructure 10 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 10 Build Space Technologies 6		8.38 +0.017
2008	Build Transport Infrastructure 10 Build Energy Infrastructure 10 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 10 Build Space Technologies 2	Core disasterGlobal funding seizure	7.58 −0.803
2009	Build Transport Infrastructure 7		7.57 −0.006
2010	Build Transport Infrastructure 5		7.55 −0.019
2011	Buy Advanced Manufacturing 3 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1		7.54 −0.013
2012	Buy Advanced Manufacturing 3 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1		7.52 −0.014
2013	Buy Advanced Manufacturing 3 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1		7.51 −0.016
2014	Buy Advanced Manufacturing 3 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1		7.50 −0.003
2015	Buy Advanced Manufacturing 3 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1	Global funding seizure	7.30 −0.200
2016	No actions		7.29 −0.018
2017	No actions		7.26 −0.021
2018	No actions	Trade bloc rupture	7.08 −0.181
2019	No actions		6.88 −0.206
2020	No actions	Severe pandemic	5.82 −1.055
2021	No actions		5.76 −0.059
2022	No actions		5.69 −0.070
2023	No actions		5.63 −0.066
2024	No actions		5.57 −0.061
2025	No actions		5.51 −0.056
2026	No actions		5.47 −0.043

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Strategic Infrastructure	4	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
National Security	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Human Capital	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Information & Influence	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Governance & Integrity	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	15	16	16	16
Financial Strength	15	17	17	17	18	17	17	18	19	19	19	18	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	21	21	24	24	24	25	25	25	25
Production & Innovation	12	12	13	13	13	12	12	13	13	12	12	12	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	16	16	16	17	17	17	18	18
Trade & Investment	9	9	10	10	10	10	9	8	8	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	10	10	11	11	11	11	11	13	13

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.181	−12.7
No shocks	+4.647	+331.6
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.007	+0.3
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.006	+0.2
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.004	+0.3
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.003	+0.2
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.007	+0.3
Without the 1st largest shock	+1.083	+77.0
Without the 2nd largest shock	+1.231	+88.3
Without the 3rd largest shock	+1.027	+73.9

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	10.94	11.00	+0.06	+5.42	−0.64	−4.20	−0.51
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.81	9.13	−0.68	+3.59	−0.39	−3.09	−0.79
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.00	10.22	−0.78	+3.89	−0.43	−3.05	−1.19
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	9.29	8.05	−1.24	+1.51	−0.22	−1.94	−0.58
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	7.13	5.26	−1.87	0.00	−0.09	−1.69	−0.09
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.01	7.90	−2.11	+0.84	−0.35	−2.30	−0.31
Maritime Power	National Security	6.14	3.94	−2.20	0.00	−0.33	−1.72	−0.16
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	9.27	7.06	−2.21	0.00	−0.20	−1.86	−0.16
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	9.86	7.64	−2.22	0.00	−0.13	−2.02	−0.07
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	9.77	7.50	−2.27	+0.89	−0.35	−2.31	−0.50
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.55	4.26	−2.29	0.00	−0.07	−2.05	−0.16
Air Power	National Security	6.32	4.01	−2.31	0.00	−0.33	−1.71	−0.27
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	7.02	4.69	−2.33	0.00	−0.08	−2.03	−0.23
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	8.25	5.91	−2.34	0.00	−0.17	−2.06	−0.12
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	9.35	6.99	−2.36	+0.62	−0.71	−1.98	−0.29
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	5.93	3.57	−2.36	0.00	−0.06	−2.07	−0.23
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.20	5.81	−2.39	0.00	−0.47	−1.66	−0.25
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	5.44	3.02	−2.42	+0.56	−0.33	−2.60	−0.05
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	10.61	8.17	−2.44	0.00	−0.66	−1.60	−0.18
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	11.30	8.84	−2.46	0.00	−0.15	−1.85	−0.47
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.40	5.89	−2.51	0.00	−0.10	−1.97	−0.44
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	5.16	2.64	−2.52	0.00	−0.29	−2.19	−0.04
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	8.52	5.95	−2.57	0.00	−0.17	−2.05	−0.35
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	3.62	1.05	−2.57	+0.62	−0.17	−2.96	−0.07
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	5.24	2.67	−2.57	0.00	−0.30	−2.19	−0.08
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	10.47	7.90	−2.57	0.00	−0.65	−1.60	−0.32
Space Operations	National Security	8.17	5.60	−2.57	0.00	−0.47	−1.67	−0.44
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	8.12	5.52	−2.60	0.00	−0.46	−1.67	−0.47
Land Power	National Security	9.86	7.23	−2.63	0.00	−0.59	−1.62	−0.42
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	5.32	2.69	−2.63	0.00	−0.30	−2.18	−0.15
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	5.08	2.37	−2.71	0.00	−0.28	−2.19	−0.24
Advanced Education	Human Capital	9.40	6.63	−2.77	0.00	−0.19	−2.02	−0.57
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.12	8.18	−2.94	+2.57	−0.47	−4.92	−0.13
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.37	7.33	−3.04	0.00	−0.51	−2.27	−0.26
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	10.16	7.02	−3.14	0.00	−0.20	−1.99	−0.94
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	4.78	1.59	−3.19	0.00	−0.19	−2.93	−0.07
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	8.61	5.40	−3.21	0.00	−0.58	−2.07	−0.56
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	10.75	7.54	−3.21	0.00	−0.47	−2.71	−0.03
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.93	6.57	−3.36	+2.51	−0.41	−4.83	−0.63
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	8.29	4.91	−3.38	0.00	−0.32	−2.80	−0.27
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.84	7.46	−3.38	0.00	−0.33	−2.25	−0.79
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	8.85	5.40	−3.45	0.00	−0.34	−2.78	−0.33
Population Health	Human Capital	9.18	5.55	−3.63	0.00	−0.11	−2.85	−0.67
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	6.61	2.95	−3.66	0.00	−0.20	−2.85	−0.61
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.97	7.30	−3.67	0.00	−0.21	−2.76	−0.69
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.28	7.50	−3.78	0.00	−0.33	−2.61	−0.84
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.73	8.92	−3.81	0.00	−0.39	−2.20	−1.22
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	11.63	7.58	−4.05	0.00	−0.48	−3.19	−0.39
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.46	8.39	−4.07	0.00	−0.70	−1.55	−1.82
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.98	7.88	−4.10	0.00	−0.14	−3.38	−0.58
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	10.28	6.17	−4.11	0.00	−0.11	−3.25	−0.76
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.04	3.81	−4.23	0.00	−0.24	−3.72	−0.27
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.94	5.65	−4.29	0.00	−0.34	−3.63	−0.32
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	8.64	4.29	−4.35	0.00	−0.27	−3.69	−0.39
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	6.79	2.41	−4.38	0.00	−0.31	−3.93	−0.14
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	10.72	6.31	−4.41	+1.50	−0.41	−5.01	−0.50
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	9.21	4.75	−4.46	0.00	−0.19	−3.96	−0.31
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.35	4.82	−4.53	0.00	−0.22	−3.56	−0.74
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	8.97	4.44	−4.53	0.00	−0.30	−4.01	−0.21
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.06	6.46	−4.60	+1.48	−0.41	−5.17	−0.50
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	8.21	3.36	−4.85	0.00	−0.22	−4.33	−0.31
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.52	4.61	−4.91	0.00	−0.29	−3.65	−0.97
Health System Capability	Human Capital	9.75	4.71	−5.04	0.00	−0.14	−4.00	−0.90
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	9.49	4.38	−5.11	0.00	−0.17	−4.77	−0.17
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	9.42	4.03	−5.39	0.00	−0.16	−4.78	−0.46
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	10.50	5.09	−5.41	0.00	−0.32	−4.38	−0.71
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	8.98	3.16	−5.82	0.00	−0.22	−5.05	−0.56
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	10.76	4.85	−5.91	0.00	−0.20	−5.19	−0.52
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.03	3.85	−6.18	0.00	−0.19	−4.10	−1.89
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.92	3.53	−6.39	0.00	−0.24	−5.61	−0.54
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	9.45	2.99	−6.46	0.00	−0.12	−6.17	−0.17
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	10.77	3.17	−7.60	0.00	−0.23	−7.17	−0.20
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	9.59	1.16	−8.43	0.00	−0.07	−7.42	−0.94

Seed 29 of experiment cycle-002.e4-chn. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.