Simulation 1
Estonia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 1: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 10.47 at the 1996 position, 9.74 in 2026; 173 actions over 30 rounds and 6 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 1
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 24 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 10 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 9.74 (−0.72)
- From 10.47
- Rank by index
- 48
- From 44
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- From 0
- Events
- 6 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 10.47 +0.007 | |
| 1998 |
| Global funding seizure | 10.37 −0.105 |
| 1999 |
| 10.47 +0.099 | |
| 2000 |
| 10.57 +0.101 | |
| 2001 |
| 10.65 +0.084 | |
| 2002 |
| 10.72 +0.071 | |
| 2003 |
| 10.79 +0.064 | |
| 2004 |
| Market access opening | 10.93 +0.137 |
| 2005 |
| 11.05 +0.127 | |
| 2006 |
| 11.18 +0.126 | |
| 2007 |
| Hybrid coercion | 10.84 −0.339 |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 10.55 −0.285 |
| 2009 |
| 10.59 +0.036 | |
| 2010 |
| 10.62 +0.032 | |
| 2011 |
| 10.65 +0.030 | |
| 2012 |
| 10.68 +0.028 | |
| 2013 |
| 10.71 +0.032 | |
| 2014 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 10.66 −0.049 |
| 2015 |
| 10.61 −0.056 | |
| 2016 |
| 10.54 −0.065 | |
| 2017 |
| 10.56 +0.021 | |
| 2018 |
| 10.59 +0.032 | |
| 2019 |
| 10.63 +0.033 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 10.13 −0.491 |
| 2021 |
| 10.16 +0.023 | |
| 2022 |
| Regional war spillover | 9.71 −0.448 |
| 2023 |
| 9.72 +0.010 | |
| 2024 |
| 9.72 +0.003 | |
| 2025 |
| 9.73 +0.009 | |
| 2026 |
| 9.74 +0.012 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Information & Influence | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Governance & Integrity | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Production & Innovation | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.530 | −111.2 | −1.00 |
| No shocks | +1.981 | +137.0 | +2.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.007 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.008 | +0.6 | −0.80 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.035 | −2.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.024 | +1.9 | −0.20 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.023 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.587 | +41.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.500 | +36.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.071 | +5.2 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 7.53 | 13.54 | +6.01 | +7.90 | 0.00 | −2.11 | +0.22 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 11.22 | 16.93 | +5.71 | +8.12 | 0.00 | −2.43 | +0.02 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 12.53 | 17.23 | +4.70 | +8.14 | 0.00 | −2.13 | +0.28 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 10.50 | 14.85 | +4.35 | +6.27 | 0.00 | −1.57 | −0.34 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 13.39 | 17.51 | +4.12 | +4.37 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.08 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.78 | 8.74 | +3.96 | +5.94 | 0.00 | −1.99 | 0.00 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.43 | 18.19 | +3.76 | +4.31 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.04 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.61 | 14.08 | +3.47 | +5.15 | 0.00 | −1.96 | +0.28 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.63 | 12.08 | +2.45 | +3.90 | 0.00 | −1.46 | +0.01 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 9.93 | 12.26 | +2.33 | +4.70 | 0.00 | −2.17 | −0.21 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 13.38 | 15.48 | +2.10 | +3.10 | 0.00 | −0.94 | −0.05 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 14.88 | 16.87 | +1.99 | +3.36 | 0.00 | −1.29 | −0.07 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.33 | 10.57 | +1.24 | +2.67 | 0.00 | −1.59 | +0.15 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.16 | 13.85 | +0.69 | +2.24 | 0.00 | −1.60 | +0.05 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 15.23 | 15.19 | −0.04 | +2.57 | 0.00 | −2.44 | −0.18 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 7.69 | 7.61 | −0.08 | +2.23 | 0.00 | −2.19 | −0.12 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 13.85 | 13.77 | −0.08 | +1.40 | 0.00 | −1.59 | +0.11 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 12.09 | 11.95 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.09 | −0.05 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.36 | 0.00 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.81 | −0.07 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 13.95 | 13.50 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | −0.02 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.43 | 11.90 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | −0.07 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.67 | 4.12 | −0.55 | +1.19 | 0.00 | −1.72 | −0.02 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 11.61 | 11.05 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.09 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 8.97 | 8.40 | −0.57 | +2.18 | 0.00 | −2.77 | +0.02 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 14.70 | 14.09 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.18 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 14.39 | 13.75 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.23 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 14.55 | 13.79 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.03 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.37 | 13.47 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | −0.03 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 14.36 | 13.46 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | −0.03 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 10.93 | 9.93 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | −0.14 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 12.68 | 11.57 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.08 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.30 | 12.13 | −1.17 | +0.43 | 0.00 | −1.52 | −0.08 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 12.95 | 11.71 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.02 | −0.22 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.93 | 12.61 | −1.32 | +0.70 | 0.00 | −2.35 | +0.32 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.52 | 10.16 | −1.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.29 | −0.07 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 7.34 | 5.91 | −1.43 | +0.98 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.81 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.79 | 10.33 | −1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | −0.08 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.56 | 9.08 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.31 | −0.17 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.42 | 8.93 | −1.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.31 | −0.18 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 12.10 | 10.60 | −1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.81 | +0.31 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.95 | 4.36 | −1.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.40 | −0.19 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.43 | 11.78 | −1.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | −0.15 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.08 | 12.43 | −1.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.76 | +0.10 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.34 | 2.66 | −1.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.66 | −0.03 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.25 | 10.56 | −1.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.87 | +0.18 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 7.36 | 5.64 | −1.72 | +1.04 | 0.00 | −2.82 | +0.05 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.95 | 1.21 | −1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.70 | −0.04 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 5.64 | 3.87 | −1.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.62 | −0.15 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 9.20 | 7.38 | −1.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.82 | 0.00 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 10.79 | 8.96 | −1.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.85 | +0.02 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.03 | 6.15 | −1.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.85 | −0.03 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 3.43 | 1.50 | −1.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.68 | −0.26 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.55 | 7.60 | −1.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.82 | −0.14 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 3.85 | 1.85 | −2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.97 | −0.03 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.51 | 0.49 | −2.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.01 | −0.01 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.12 | 9.06 | −2.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.10 | +0.04 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 5.62 | 3.56 | −2.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.91 | −0.15 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 8.65 | 6.58 | −2.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.18 | +0.12 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.58 | 2.46 | −2.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.70 | −0.42 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 11.43 | 9.29 | −2.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.83 | −0.31 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 12.84 | 10.65 | −2.19 | +0.31 | 0.00 | −2.41 | −0.09 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 7.24 | 5.03 | −2.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.98 | −0.23 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 11.75 | 9.28 | −2.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.48 | +0.02 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.79 | 4.30 | −2.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.47 | −0.02 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 12.37 | 9.79 | −2.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.55 | −0.03 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.92 | 9.29 | −2.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.63 | −0.01 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 9.74 | 7.10 | −2.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.51 | −0.12 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 15.09 | 12.43 | −2.66 | +1.16 | 0.00 | −3.25 | −0.58 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 5.10 | 2.43 | −2.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.28 | −0.39 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 9.07 | 6.07 | −3.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.67 | −0.32 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.03 | 9.90 | −3.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.08 | −0.06 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 11.71 | 8.41 | −3.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.99 | −0.31 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 8.53 | 4.69 | −3.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.31 | −0.53 |
Seed 1 of experiment cycle-002.e4-est. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.