Round 12 · simulation 11 · cycle-002.e4-eth

Round 2008

Round 12 of 30 in simulation 11 of Ethiopia, scripted, 30 years from 1996: 5 actions, Breadbasket failure, and the index −0.439 to 4.26.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2008 (the end of 2007) and as it left it.

Capability index
4.26 (−0.439)
In: 4.70
Rank by index
136
In: 125
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
30
In: 26
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology1.681.45−0.22713
Strategic Infrastructure4.904.38−0.52211 → 12
National Security4.324.10−0.2169
Human Capital5.925.55−0.36914 → 15
Information & Influence5.504.95−0.55413
Governance & Integrity6.416.09−0.32118
Financial Strength5.024.37−0.64625 → 27
Production & Innovation4.293.83−0.46521 → 24
Trade & Investment4.243.61−0.62919 → 20

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2008: the credits, the scripted method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 79, plus 26 carried in. Maintenance 67. Spent 8 on actions (build 8). 30 carried over.

  • BuildTransport Infrastructure2 credits for 0.08 levelsscripted_history
  • BuildEnergy Infrastructure2 credits for 0.08 levelsscripted_history
  • BuildCommunications & Digital Infrastructure2 credits for 0.09 levelsscripted_history
  • BuildAgriculture & Food Infrastructure2 credits for 0.07 levelsscripted_history
  • BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills2 credits for 0.20 levelsscripted_history
  • Shock: Breadbasket failure S06. −31.3 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Strategic Infrastructure Tier 11 to 12; Human Capital Tier 14 to 15; Financial Strength Tier 25 to 27; Production & Innovation Tier 21 to 24; Trade & Investment Tier 19 to 20.

The groups that moved most in 2008, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Trade Facilitation & Logistics−1.080.000.00−1.080.00
Monetary & Currency Capability−0.970.000.00−0.960.00
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance−0.960.000.00−0.95−0.01
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks−0.940.000.00−0.92−0.02
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure−0.83+0.020.00−0.84−0.01
Energy Infrastructure−0.79+0.080.00−0.870.00