E4 · cycle-002.e4-eth

Ethiopia, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Ethiopia decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Regional war spillover in year 2, Breadbasket failure in year 6, Breadbasket failure in year 12, Breadbasket failure in year 15, Breadbasket failure in year 19, Severe pandemic in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 24, Clean power threshold in year 26, Debt service reset in year 27.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 3.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 1.74 (−4.22); From 5.96; 1.72 to 1.77
Rank by index: 192; From 97; 192 to 192
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 183; From 100; 177 to 184

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	5.96	1.72	1.74	1.77	higher
Rank by index	97	192	192	192	lower
Tier rank	100	177	183	184	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	425.3	126.8	128.5	130.0	higher
Goal-weighted score	425.3	126.8	128.5	130.0	higher
Resilient score	425.3	128.6 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 100 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 0 per cent of the 213 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Ethiopia actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 5.96; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 5.70; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 1.74; 1.67 to 1.83
Skill against persistence: −4.02; group error 3.80 against 0.76 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	2.48	2.10	0.29 0.3–0.3	−1.81	right
Strategic Infrastructure	6.55	6.59	1.54 1.4–1.7	−5.05	wrong
National Security	5.21	4.96	1.84 1.7–1.9	−3.12	right
Human Capital	6.65	6.34	3.38 3.3–3.5	−2.96	right
Information & Influence	6.70	7.30	1.97 1.9–2.1	−5.33	wrong
Governance & Integrity	7.29	6.04	4.07 4.0–4.2	−1.97	right
Financial Strength	6.81	5.62	1.27 1.2–1.3	−4.36	right
Production & Innovation	5.70	5.96	0.84 0.8–1.0	−5.12	wrong
Trade & Investment	6.25	6.33	0.48 0.4–0.5	−5.86	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1998 · S03 × 0.7 The Eritrean war brought large-scale mobilisation, border fighting, aerial combat and a costly economic dislocation, but it did not close a major global sea route.
2002 · S06 × 0.8 A severe drought produced crop failure and food insecurity for millions, though large-scale famine was partially averted by aid.
2008 · S06 × 0.5 Global food price rises worsened food access for Ethiopia's poor and urban populations.
2011 · S06 × 0.6 Horn of Africa drought affected Ethiopia's pastoral lowlands, raising hunger and displacement.
2015 · S06 × 0.7 El Niño-induced drought caused widespread crop failure and livestock losses, leaving millions reliant on emergency food aid.
2020 · S10 × 0.6 COVID-19 reached Ethiopia, disrupting exports, remittances and health services, though mortality was lower than in many countries.
2020 · S03 × 0.9 The Tigray war escalated into an internal armed conflict with regional dimensions, mass displacement and severe humanitarian crisis.
2022 · S15 × 0.5 The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam began generating electricity, adding large-scale hydroelectric capacity to the grid.
2023 · S11 × 0.4 Ethiopia advanced under the G20 Common Framework and IMF programme, though a full debt service reset remained incomplete.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2000 · build · 5% each The Eritrean war forced Ethiopia to mobilise and re-equip its army, diverting resources from development to national defence and internal security. (Land Power, Force Generation & Mobilisation, Air Power, Intelligence & Assessment, Internal Security & Order)
1997–2005 · build · 2% each Under the EPRDF's developmental state, Ethiopia invested in agricultural extension, rural roads, basic education and primary health as part of poverty reduction. (Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Transport Infrastructure, Foundational Education, Population Health, Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure)
2005–2010 · build · 2% each The Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty prioritised roads, hydropower, telecoms expansion and skills development. (Transport Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Technical & Vocational Skills)
2010–2015 · build · 5% each The first Growth and Transformation Plan and the launch of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam made large hydropower and infrastructure projects flagship national programmes. (Energy Infrastructure, Transport Infrastructure, Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure, Industrial & Sectoral Base, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)
2015–2020 · partner · 2% each The second Growth and Transformation Plan promoted industrial parks, the Addis-Djibouti railway and export-oriented manufacturing, with heavy Chinese and Gulf financing. (Industrial & Sectoral Base, Transport Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Trade Facilitation & Logistics, Export Capability & Sophistication)
2020–2022 · build · 5% each The COVID-19 pandemic and the Tigray war forced emergency spending on health, humanitarian response and internal security. (National Resilience & Crisis Management, Health System Capability, Population Health, Land Power, Internal Security & Order)
2023–2026 · partner · 2% each Post-conflict recovery, GERD completion, IMF debt-restructuring and digital sector liberalisation dominate the current period. (Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Energy Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Digital & AI Competence, National Resilience & Crisis Management)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The main uncertainties are the precise relative military scores, which depend on disputed Ethiopian and Eritrean troop strengths and equipment holdings in 1996, and the magnitude of food-security and conflict events, where mortality and displacement estimates remain contested. Economic and infrastructure scores are inferred from sparse 1996 data and should be treated as broad ordinal placements rather than precise measurements. The policy periods are based on documented plans but the resource shares are necessarily approximate.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-002. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Ethiopia played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 5.96 to a median of 1.74 (−4.22), with 90 per cent of simulations between 1.72 and 1.77 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 97 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 100. Its base income is 114 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 212 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Transport Infrastructure (build, 25 credits, 11.8 per cent); Land Power (build, 22 credits, 10.4 per cent); Force Generation & Mobilisation (build, 22 credits, 10.4 per cent); Air Power (build, 22 credits, 10.4 per cent); Intelligence & Assessment (build, 20 credits, 9.6 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 100 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.084, and the most repeated action appeared in 43 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, National Security; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 16 to 20, Strategic Infrastructure [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 7 shocks and 2 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S03 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −47.9 points each); S06 (120 firings in 30 simulations, −41.1 points each); S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −21.6 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 60 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Trade Facilitation & Logistics −9.74; Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −8.59; Energy Infrastructure −7.16; Monetary & Currency Capability −6.88 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (−1.35 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−1.14 points); Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure to Agriculture & Food Infrastructure (−0.91 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 192 (5th to 95th percentile 192 to 192), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 183; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 129 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +4.828 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 4.828 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by +0.075: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between +0.005 and +0.006, for example 1997 build Land Power (6 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.945 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

saturation_low (warn): 100% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 5 groups).

retired_words (warn): e4-eth/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 38; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 28) ends −0.03 from it, with 7 shocks and 2 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 5.96 the model ends at 1.74, where the 2026 ratings put it at 5.70. Group scores miss by 3.80 points on average, against 0.76 for assuming nothing changed (skill −4.02); the change in each domain has the right sign in 56 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: trade and investment (−5.86); furthest above: critical technology (−1.81) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	For example
Hold instead of the method	+0.075	+4.1
No shocks	+4.828	+343.4
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.006	+0.4	1997 build Land Power (6 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.006	+0.4	1997 build Force Generation & Mobilisation (6 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.005	+0.3	1997 build Air Power (6 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.005	+0.3	1997 build Intelligence & Assessment (6 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.005	+0.3	1998 build Land Power (6 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.643	+46.4	2020 S03 (-58.0 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.945	+66.9	2002 S06 (-47.5 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.727	+51.1	2015 S06 (-47.0 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	100 per cent	13.0	−47.9
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	100 per cent	13.0	−41.1
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−21.6
Debt service reset S11	Upside	100 per cent	27.0	+1.3
Clean power threshold S15	Upside	100 per cent	26.0	+2.1

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	0.00	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.06	0.00 0.00 to 0.01	−1.06	0.00	0
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	1.30	0.05 0.04 to 0.05	−1.25	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.32	0.01 0.01 to 0.01	−1.31	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	1.55	0.01 0.01 to 0.01	−1.54	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	5.89	4.35 4.30 to 4.40	−1.54	1.20	9
Maritime Power	National Security	1.89	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−1.89	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	2.25	0.00 0.00 to 0.01	−2.25	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	6.82	4.37 4.34 to 4.40	−2.45	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	2.47	0.01 0.01 to 0.02	−2.46	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.55	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−2.55	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.39	3.82 3.79 to 3.87	−2.57	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	5.93	3.33 3.26 to 3.37	−2.60	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	6.46	3.84 3.78 to 3.91	−2.62	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.05	0.25 0.22 to 0.32	−2.80	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	6.40	3.59 3.52 to 3.65	−2.81	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	7.03	4.16 3.99 to 4.29	−2.87	0.68	9
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.74	4.83 4.75 to 4.94	−2.91	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	6.59	3.60 3.55 to 3.68	−2.99	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	6.88	3.86 3.76 to 3.93	−3.02	0.95	20
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	7.02	3.94 3.87 to 4.02	−3.08	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	5.22	2.12 2.01 to 2.26	−3.10	0.93	22
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	5.99	2.84 2.78 to 2.93	−3.15	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	4.34	1.03 0.97 to 1.06	−3.31	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	4.93	1.57 1.49 to 1.64	−3.36	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	3.50	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−3.50	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	7.50	3.82 3.65 to 3.99	−3.68	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	8.26	4.46 4.32 to 4.58	−3.80	0.79	22
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	8.00	4.12 4.03 to 4.21	−3.88	0.13	2
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.00	0.01 0.01 to 0.01	−3.99	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	8.01	3.98 3.89 to 4.11	−4.03	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	7.51	3.42 3.38 to 3.46	−4.09	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.11	1.95 1.80 to 2.09	−4.16	0.00	0
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.27	4.05 3.95 to 4.14	−4.22	0.53	9
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	4.42	0.20 0.07 to 0.29	−4.22	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	6.03	1.80 1.69 to 1.88	−4.23	0.60	9
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	6.80	2.53 2.42 to 2.60	−4.27	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	5.82	1.45 1.41 to 1.50	−4.37	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.39	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−4.39	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	9.72	5.20 4.89 to 5.51	−4.52	0.71	22
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	6.70	2.05 2.00 to 2.09	−4.65	0.00	0
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.96	2.26 2.01 to 2.44	−4.70	1.20	25
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	5.33	0.62 0.53 to 0.72	−4.71	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	9.02	4.28 4.15 to 4.50	−4.74	0.26	5
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	4.93	0.15 0.08 to 0.23	−4.78	0.00	0
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.83	0.05 0.04 to 0.07	−4.78	0.84	16
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	6.27	1.48 1.37 to 1.71	−4.79	0.39	6
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	6.04	1.24 1.18 to 1.33	−4.80	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.82	0.02 0.02 to 0.02	−4.80	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	7.57	2.76 2.71 to 2.81	−4.81	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	7.54	2.71 2.60 to 2.85	−4.83	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	6.22	1.37 1.29 to 1.50	−4.85	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	8.29	3.43 3.29 to 3.58	−4.86	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	4.95	0.03 0.03 to 0.09	−4.92	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	5.65	0.66 0.55 to 0.75	−4.99	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	4.99	0.00 0.00 to 0.01	−4.99	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	7.36	2.35 2.16 to 2.53	−5.01	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.27	3.24 2.93 to 3.43	−5.03	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	5.44	0.39 0.31 to 0.49	−5.05	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	6.68	1.60 1.40 to 1.78	−5.08	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	6.14	0.77 0.66 to 0.90	−5.37	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.00	1.53 1.38 to 1.86	−5.47	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	5.55	0.01 0.01 to 0.02	−5.54	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	7.00	1.44 1.37 to 1.52	−5.56	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	6.43	0.70 0.65 to 0.83	−5.73	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	6.94	1.16 1.00 to 1.31	−5.78	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	5.82	0.01 0.01 to 0.13	−5.81	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.60	0.74 0.55 to 0.91	−5.86	0.78	16
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.10	1.93 1.73 to 2.16	−6.17	0.82	19
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	7.38	0.82 0.68 to 0.92	−6.56	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	6.69	0.03 0.03 to 0.04	−6.66	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	7.01	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−7.01	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	7.39	0.01 0.01 to 0.02	−7.38	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 1.8e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 9.762
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.9e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 0.24 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
passtier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 1 tiers (0 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 97; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
warnsaturation_low100% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 5 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.084; most funded group hard.strategic_infrastructure.transport_infrastructure
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 43% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-002.e4-eth. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Ethiopia (ETH)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Regional war spillover in year 2, Breadbasket failure in year 6, Breadbasket failure in year 12, Breadbasket failure in year 15, Breadbasket failure in year 19, Severe pandemic in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 24, Clean power threshold in year 26, Debt service reset in year 27
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 114.4 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-002), cycle 2 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 4.2 seconds in all; 973 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.