A good simulation (90th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-eth

Simulation 11

Ethiopia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 11: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 5.96 at the 1996 position, 1.77 in 2026; 88 actions over 30 rounds and 7 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 11

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 21 (median simulation), 29 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 1.77 (−4.19); From 5.96
Rank by index: 192; From 97
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 7 shocks; 2 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Land Power 6 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 6 Build Air Power 6 Build Intelligence & Assessment 6 Build Internal Security & Order 1		5.96 +0.003
1998	Build Land Power 6 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 6 Build Air Power 6 Build Intelligence & Assessment 6 Build Internal Security & Order 1	Regional war spillover	5.46 −0.508
1999	Build Land Power 6 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 6 Build Air Power 6 Build Intelligence & Assessment 4		5.45 −0.001
2000	Build Land Power 5 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 5 Build Air Power 5 Build Intelligence & Assessment 5 Build Internal Security & Order 0		5.45 −0.006
2001	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Foundational Education 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2		5.44 −0.004
2002	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Foundational Education 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2	Breadbasket failure	4.77 −0.677
2003	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Foundational Education 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2		4.75 −0.015
2004	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Foundational Education 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2		4.73 −0.017
2005	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Foundational Education 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2		4.72 −0.013
2006	Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2		4.71 −0.012
2007	Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2		4.70 −0.011
2008	Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2	Breadbasket failure	4.26 −0.439
2009	Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2		4.25 −0.006
2010	Build Transport Infrastructure 1 Build Energy Infrastructure 1 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 1 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 1 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 1 Build Energy Infrastructure 3 Build Transport Infrastructure 3 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 3 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 3		4.25 −0.009
2011	Build Energy Infrastructure 3 Build Transport Infrastructure 3 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 3 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 3	Breadbasket failure	3.71 −0.540
2012	Build Energy Infrastructure 2		3.69 −0.013
2013	Build Energy Infrastructure 0		3.67 −0.018
2014	Build Energy Infrastructure 0		3.66 −0.014
2015	Build Energy Infrastructure 0	Breadbasket failure	3.01 −0.652
2016	No actions		2.96 −0.044
2017	No actions		2.92 −0.044
2018	No actions		2.88 −0.040
2019	No actions		2.84 −0.038
2020	No actions	Severe pandemicRegional war spillover	1.95 −0.890
2021	No actions		1.91 −0.039
2022	No actions	Clean power threshold	1.87 −0.040
2023	No actions	Debt service reset	1.84 −0.033
2024	No actions		1.81 −0.029
2025	No actions		1.78 −0.027
2026	No actions		1.77 −0.017

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	16	16	22	22	22	22	22	24	24
Strategic Infrastructure	9	9	9	9	9	9	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	14	14	18	18	18	18	18
National Security	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	13	13	14	14	14	14	14
Human Capital	13	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	18	18	18	18	18
Information & Influence	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	15	15	15	15	17	17	17	17	17	21	21	22	22	22	22	22
Governance & Integrity	16	16	17	17	17	17	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	22	22	22	22	22	22	22
Financial Strength	22	22	23	23	23	23	25	25	25	25	25	25	27	27	27	30	30	30	30	35	35	35	36	36	42	42	42	42	42	42	42
Production & Innovation	18	18	19	19	19	19	20	20	20	20	21	21	24	24	24	26	26	26	26	28	28	28	30	30	36	36	37	37	37	37	37
Trade & Investment	15	15	17	17	17	17	19	19	19	19	19	19	20	20	20	22	22	22	22	24	24	25	25	25	27	27	27	27	27	28	28

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	+0.075	+4.1
No shocks	+4.828	+343.4
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.006	+0.4
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.006	+0.4
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.005	+0.3
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.005	+0.3
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.005	+0.3
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.643	+46.4
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.945	+66.9
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.727	+51.1

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−3.26	−0.09
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.06	0.00	−1.06	0.00	0.00	−2.41	−0.14
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	1.30	0.05	−1.25	0.00	0.00	−4.44	−0.17
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.32	0.01	−1.31	0.00	0.00	−2.40	−0.25
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	5.89	4.36	−1.53	+1.20	−0.30	−2.21	−0.22
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	1.55	0.01	−1.54	0.00	0.00	−2.39	−0.21
Maritime Power	National Security	1.89	0.00	−1.89	0.00	0.00	−4.78	−0.15
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	2.25	0.00	−2.25	0.00	−0.04	−2.37	−0.17
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	6.82	4.40	−2.42	0.00	−0.18	−2.18	−0.06
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	2.47	0.02	−2.45	0.00	−0.06	−2.36	−0.04
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	5.93	3.39	−2.54	0.00	−0.15	−2.25	−0.15
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.55	0.00	−2.55	0.00	−0.05	−2.36	−0.27
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.39	3.84	−2.55	0.00	−0.16	−2.21	−0.18
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	6.46	3.79	−2.67	0.00	−0.16	−2.23	−0.28
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.05	0.32	−2.73	0.00	−0.14	−2.34	−0.25
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	6.40	3.62	−2.78	0.00	−0.26	−2.31	−0.20
Foundational Education	Human Capital	7.03	4.23	−2.80	+0.68	−0.31	−2.41	−0.76
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.74	4.88	−2.86	0.00	−0.21	−2.15	−0.49
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	7.02	4.02	−3.00	0.00	−0.29	−2.29	−0.41
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	6.88	3.87	−3.01	+0.95	−0.84	−2.77	−0.34
Advanced Education	Human Capital	6.59	3.58	−3.01	0.00	−0.26	−2.31	−0.44
Air Power	National Security	5.22	2.14	−3.08	+0.93	−0.51	−2.81	−0.69
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	5.99	2.82	−3.17	0.00	−0.21	−2.33	−0.63
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	4.34	0.98	−3.36	0.00	−0.35	−2.63	−0.38
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	4.93	1.50	−3.43	0.00	−0.46	−2.28	−0.69
Space Operations	National Security	3.50	0.00	−3.50	0.00	−0.06	−3.11	−0.56
Health System Capability	Human Capital	7.50	4.00	−3.50	0.00	−0.29	−2.47	−0.74
Land Power	National Security	8.26	4.63	−3.63	+0.79	−1.02	−2.75	−0.65
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	8.00	4.23	−3.77	+0.13	−0.18	−3.43	−0.29
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	8.01	4.24	−3.77	0.00	−0.19	−3.08	−0.49
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.00	0.01	−3.99	0.00	−0.02	−3.79	−0.58
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	7.51	3.48	−4.03	0.00	−0.56	−3.42	−0.05
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	4.42	0.24	−4.18	0.00	−0.08	−3.55	−0.56
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.27	4.05	−4.22	+0.54	−0.75	−3.54	−0.46
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	6.80	2.58	−4.22	0.00	−0.44	−3.45	−0.34
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.11	1.86	−4.25	0.00	−0.49	−2.99	−0.76
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	9.72	5.47	−4.25	+0.71	−1.18	−2.71	−1.06
Population Health	Human Capital	6.03	1.76	−4.27	+0.60	−0.10	−4.09	−0.67
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	5.82	1.49	−4.33	0.00	−0.28	−3.82	−0.24
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.39	0.00	−4.39	0.00	−0.08	−4.62	−0.49
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	9.02	4.50	−4.52	+0.37	−0.20	−4.19	−0.50
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	6.70	2.09	−4.61	0.00	−0.22	−4.23	−0.16
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.96	2.26	−4.70	+1.21	−0.29	−4.76	−0.85
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	8.29	3.58	−4.71	0.00	−0.60	−3.39	−0.72
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	6.27	1.56	−4.71	+0.42	−0.28	−3.95	−0.91
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	5.33	0.62	−4.71	0.00	−0.15	−4.09	−0.47
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	6.04	1.28	−4.76	0.00	−0.24	−4.02	−0.50
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.83	0.06	−4.77	+0.95	0.00	−7.00	−0.31
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	4.93	0.15	−4.78	0.00	−0.09	−4.11	−0.58
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.82	0.02	−4.80	0.00	−0.04	−5.06	−0.39
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	6.22	1.41	−4.81	0.00	−0.26	−4.05	−0.49
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	7.57	2.72	−4.85	0.00	−0.29	−4.22	−0.33
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	7.54	2.69	−4.85	0.00	−0.28	−4.23	−0.34
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.27	3.39	−4.88	0.00	−0.40	−3.61	−0.86
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	5.65	0.77	−4.88	0.00	−0.18	−4.07	−0.63
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	4.95	0.03	−4.92	0.00	−0.04	−4.40	−0.58
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	5.44	0.50	−4.94	0.00	−0.14	−4.40	−0.40
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	4.99	0.00	−4.99	0.00	−0.05	−4.93	−0.41
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	7.36	2.20	−5.16	0.00	−0.18	−3.91	−1.07
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	6.68	1.50	−5.18	0.00	−0.21	−3.67	−1.30
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	6.14	0.66	−5.48	0.00	−0.28	−4.50	−0.71
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	5.55	0.01	−5.54	0.00	−0.03	−6.57	−0.69
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	7.00	1.45	−5.55	0.00	−0.28	−4.82	−0.45
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.00	1.38	−5.62	0.00	−0.20	−3.81	−1.61
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	6.94	1.28	−5.66	0.00	−0.25	−4.82	−0.59
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	6.43	0.72	−5.71	0.00	−0.17	−4.85	−0.69
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	5.82	0.01	−5.81	0.00	−0.07	−4.89	−0.86
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.60	0.55	−6.05	+0.79	−0.10	−5.78	−0.97
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.10	1.78	−6.32	+0.82	−0.24	−5.68	−1.24
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	7.38	0.87	−6.51	0.00	−0.18	−5.86	−0.47
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	6.69	0.03	−6.66	0.00	−0.01	−6.82	−0.65
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	7.01	0.00	−7.01	0.00	0.00	−9.68	−0.96
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	7.39	0.01	−7.38	0.00	−0.02	−8.51	−0.93

Seed 11 of experiment cycle-002.e4-eth. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.