Round 2020
Round 24 of 30 in simulation 21 of Ethiopia, scripted, 30 years from 1996: 0 actions, Severe pandemic and Regional war spillover, and the index −0.894 to 1.93.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2020 (the end of 2019) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 1.93 (−0.894)
- In: 2.83
- Rank by index
- 191
- In: 177
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 0
- In: 0
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 0.84 | 0.36 | −0.482 | 16 → 22 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2.70 | 1.73 | −0.965 | 13 → 14 |
| National Security | 3.16 | 2.16 | −1.000 | 10 → 13 |
| Human Capital | 4.27 | 3.65 | −0.619 | 17 |
| Information & Influence | 3.16 | 2.30 | −0.855 | 18 → 21 |
| Governance & Integrity | 5.03 | 4.21 | −0.822 | 19 → 22 |
| Financial Strength | 2.34 | 1.35 | −0.985 | 36 → 41 |
| Production & Innovation | 2.29 | 1.05 | −1.242 | 30 → 36 |
| Trade & Investment | 1.66 | 0.58 | −1.075 | 25 → 27 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2020: the credits, the scripted method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 28. Maintenance 28 of the 37 needed, so 26 per cent of every group went unmaintained and decayed. Nothing spent on actions. 0 carried over. 10 actions could not be paid for.
- Shock: Severe pandemic S10. −21.6 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
- Shock: Regional war spillover S03. −58.0 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 16 to 22; Strategic Infrastructure Tier 13 to 14; National Security Tier 10 to 13; Information & Influence Tier 18 to 21; Governance & Integrity Tier 19 to 22; Financial Strength Tier 36 to 41; Production & Innovation Tier 30 to 36; Trade & Investment Tier 25 to 27.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | −2.08 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −2.02 | −0.03 |
| Transport Infrastructure | −1.71 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −1.62 | −0.06 |
| Labour & Employment | −1.52 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.49 | −0.01 |
| Digital & Services Trade | −1.43 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −1.38 | −0.02 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | −1.42 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −1.38 | −0.02 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | −1.41 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.39 | 0.00 |