Median simulation · cycle-002.e4-eth

Simulation 21

Ethiopia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 21: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 5.96 at the 1996 position, 1.74 in 2026; 83 actions over 30 rounds and 7 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 21

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 29 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 11 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 1.74 (−4.22); From 5.96
Rank by index: 192; From 97
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 7 shocks; 2 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Land Power 6 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 6 Build Air Power 6 Build Intelligence & Assessment 6 Build Internal Security & Order 1		5.96 +0.003
1998	Build Land Power 6 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 6 Build Air Power 6 Build Intelligence & Assessment 6 Build Internal Security & Order 1	Regional war spillover	5.46 −0.508
1999	Build Land Power 6 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 6 Build Air Power 6 Build Intelligence & Assessment 4		5.45 −0.001
2000	Build Land Power 5 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 5 Build Air Power 5 Build Intelligence & Assessment 5 Build Internal Security & Order 0		5.45 −0.005
2001	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Foundational Education 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2		5.45 −0.003
2002	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Foundational Education 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2	Breadbasket failure	4.77 −0.677
2003	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Foundational Education 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2		4.75 −0.015
2004	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Foundational Education 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2		4.74 −0.017
2005	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Foundational Education 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2		4.72 −0.012
2006	Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2		4.71 −0.011
2007	Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2		4.70 −0.010
2008	Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2	Breadbasket failure	4.27 −0.438
2009	Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2		4.26 −0.006
2010	Build Transport Infrastructure 1 Build Energy Infrastructure 1 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 1 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 1 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 1 Build Energy Infrastructure 3 Build Transport Infrastructure 3 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 3 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 3		4.25 −0.008
2011	Build Energy Infrastructure 3 Build Transport Infrastructure 3 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 3	Breadbasket failure	3.71 −0.540
2012	No actions		3.70 −0.015
2013	No actions		3.68 −0.021
2014	No actions		3.66 −0.017
2015	No actions	Breadbasket failure	3.00 −0.655
2016	No actions		2.96 −0.047
2017	No actions		2.91 −0.047
2018	No actions		2.87 −0.043
2019	No actions		2.83 −0.041
2020	No actions	Severe pandemicRegional war spillover	1.93 −0.894
2021	No actions		1.89 −0.040
2022	No actions	Clean power threshold	1.85 −0.041
2023	No actions	Debt service reset	1.82 −0.034
2024	No actions		1.79 −0.030
2025	No actions		1.76 −0.028
2026	No actions		1.74 −0.019

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	15	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	16	22	22	22	22	22	22	24
Strategic Infrastructure	9	9	9	9	9	9	11	11	11	11	10	10	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
National Security	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	13	14	14	14	14	15	15
Human Capital	13	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	18	18	18	18	18	18
Information & Influence	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	15	15	15	15	17	17	17	17	18	21	22	22	22	22	22	22
Governance & Integrity	16	16	17	17	17	17	18	18	18	18	18	18	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	22	22	22	22	22	22	22
Financial Strength	22	22	23	23	23	23	25	25	25	25	25	25	27	27	27	30	30	30	30	35	35	35	35	36	41	41	42	42	42	42	42
Production & Innovation	18	18	19	19	19	19	20	20	20	21	21	21	24	24	24	26	26	26	26	28	28	28	30	30	36	36	37	37	37	37	37
Trade & Investment	15	15	17	17	17	17	19	19	19	19	19	19	20	20	20	22	22	22	22	24	24	25	25	25	27	27	27	27	27	28	28

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	+0.075	+4.1
No shocks	+4.828	+343.4
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.006	+0.4
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.006	+0.4
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.005	+0.3
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.005	+0.3
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.005	+0.3
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.643	+46.4
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.945	+66.9
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.727	+51.1

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−3.27	−0.08
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.06	0.00	−1.06	0.00	0.00	−2.41	−0.14
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	1.30	0.05	−1.25	0.00	0.00	−4.44	−0.16
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.32	0.01	−1.31	0.00	0.00	−2.40	−0.23
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	1.55	0.01	−1.54	0.00	0.00	−2.39	−0.19
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	5.89	4.29	−1.60	+1.19	−0.34	−2.22	−0.24
Maritime Power	National Security	1.89	0.00	−1.89	0.00	0.00	−4.79	−0.21
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	2.25	0.00	−2.25	0.00	−0.05	−2.37	−0.15
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	6.82	4.37	−2.45	0.00	−0.21	−2.19	−0.05
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	2.47	0.01	−2.46	0.00	−0.07	−2.36	−0.08
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.55	0.00	−2.55	0.00	−0.07	−2.36	−0.25
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	6.46	3.91	−2.55	0.00	−0.19	−2.23	−0.12
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.39	3.78	−2.61	0.00	−0.19	−2.22	−0.20
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	5.93	3.31	−2.62	0.00	−0.17	−2.26	−0.21
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.05	0.27	−2.78	0.00	−0.17	−2.34	−0.27
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	6.40	3.52	−2.88	0.00	−0.29	−2.32	−0.27
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.74	4.76	−2.98	0.00	−0.24	−2.16	−0.58
Foundational Education	Human Capital	7.03	4.04	−2.99	+0.68	−0.35	−2.41	−0.90
Advanced Education	Human Capital	6.59	3.56	−3.03	0.00	−0.30	−2.31	−0.43
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	6.88	3.82	−3.06	+0.95	−0.97	−2.77	−0.26
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	7.02	3.92	−3.10	0.00	−0.33	−2.29	−0.47
Air Power	National Security	5.22	2.10	−3.12	+0.93	−0.58	−2.82	−0.65
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	5.99	2.80	−3.19	0.00	−0.24	−2.33	−0.61
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	4.34	1.06	−3.28	0.00	−0.43	−2.63	−0.21
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	4.93	1.57	−3.36	0.00	−0.56	−2.28	−0.52
Space Operations	National Security	3.50	0.00	−3.50	0.00	−0.07	−3.11	−0.60
Health System Capability	Human Capital	7.50	3.99	−3.51	0.00	−0.34	−2.47	−0.70
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	8.00	4.21	−3.79	+0.13	−0.21	−3.43	−0.27
Land Power	National Security	8.26	4.38	−3.88	+0.79	−1.14	−2.76	−0.78
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	8.01	4.05	−3.96	0.00	−0.21	−3.09	−0.65
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.00	0.01	−3.99	0.00	−0.03	−3.79	−0.51
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	4.42	0.32	−4.10	0.00	−0.11	−3.55	−0.46
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	7.51	3.40	−4.11	0.00	−0.64	−3.42	−0.04
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.27	4.14	−4.13	+0.53	−0.89	−3.55	−0.22
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.11	1.96	−4.15	0.00	−0.59	−3.00	−0.57
Population Health	Human Capital	6.03	1.88	−4.15	+0.60	−0.12	−4.09	−0.54
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	5.82	1.48	−4.34	0.00	−0.33	−3.82	−0.18
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	6.80	2.45	−4.35	0.00	−0.49	−3.45	−0.41
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.39	0.00	−4.39	0.00	−0.10	−4.63	−0.40
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	6.27	1.60	−4.67	+0.38	−0.33	−3.96	−0.77
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	9.72	5.01	−4.71	+0.71	−1.28	−2.72	−1.42
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	6.70	1.98	−4.72	0.00	−0.25	−4.24	−0.23
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	7.54	2.81	−4.73	0.00	−0.34	−4.23	−0.16
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	5.33	0.58	−4.75	0.00	−0.17	−4.09	−0.48
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	7.57	2.81	−4.76	0.00	−0.34	−4.23	−0.18
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	6.04	1.27	−4.77	0.00	−0.29	−4.03	−0.46
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	6.22	1.44	−4.78	0.00	−0.31	−4.05	−0.42
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	4.93	0.15	−4.78	0.00	−0.11	−4.11	−0.56
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.83	0.05	−4.78	+0.82	0.00	−7.07	−0.35
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.82	0.02	−4.80	0.00	−0.05	−5.07	−0.38
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	8.29	3.39	−4.90	0.00	−0.67	−3.39	−0.84
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	6.68	1.77	−4.91	0.00	−0.28	−3.68	−0.96
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	4.95	0.03	−4.92	0.00	−0.05	−4.40	−0.58
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.96	1.97	−4.99	+1.20	−0.31	−4.77	−1.10
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	4.99	0.00	−4.99	0.00	−0.06	−4.94	−0.41
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	9.02	4.01	−5.01	+0.18	−0.21	−4.22	−0.76
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	5.65	0.62	−5.03	0.00	−0.19	−4.08	−0.76
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	5.44	0.35	−5.09	0.00	−0.15	−4.41	−0.54
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	7.36	2.16	−5.20	0.00	−0.20	−3.91	−1.08
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.00	1.67	−5.33	0.00	−0.27	−3.81	−1.25
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.27	2.87	−5.40	0.00	−0.42	−3.61	−1.37
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	6.14	0.74	−5.40	0.00	−0.35	−4.51	−0.55
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	5.55	0.01	−5.54	0.00	−0.05	−6.58	−0.68
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	7.00	1.45	−5.55	0.00	−0.33	−4.83	−0.39
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	6.94	1.33	−5.61	0.00	−0.31	−4.83	−0.48
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.60	0.93	−5.67	+0.78	−0.16	−5.78	−0.51
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	5.82	0.01	−5.81	0.00	−0.10	−4.89	−0.83
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	6.43	0.61	−5.82	0.00	−0.18	−4.86	−0.78
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.10	1.96	−6.14	+0.82	−0.30	−5.68	−0.98
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	7.38	0.96	−6.42	0.00	−0.23	−5.86	−0.33
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	6.69	0.04	−6.65	0.00	−0.02	−6.82	−0.62
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	7.01	0.00	−7.01	0.00	0.00	−9.69	−0.74
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	7.39	0.01	−7.38	0.00	−0.02	−8.52	−1.15

Seed 21 of experiment cycle-002.e4-eth. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.