A good simulation (90th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-irl

Simulation 2

Ireland, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 2: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.93 at the 1996 position, 12.11 in 2026; 147 actions over 30 rounds and 3 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 2

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 1 (median simulation), 27 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 12.11 (+0.18); From 11.93
Rank by index: 28; From 29
Domains at Tier 1: 5; From 1
Events: 3 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 19 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 19 Partner Advanced Education 19 Partner Transport Infrastructure 19 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 19		11.95 +0.025
1998	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 19 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 19 Partner Advanced Education 19 Partner Transport Infrastructure 19 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 19		12.01 +0.051
1999	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 19 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 19 Partner Advanced Education 19 Partner Transport Infrastructure 19 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 19		12.06 +0.060
2000	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 20 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 20 Partner Advanced Education 20 Partner Transport Infrastructure 20 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 20		12.12 +0.058
2001	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 20 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 20 Partner Advanced Education 20 Partner Transport Infrastructure 20 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 20		12.18 +0.056
2002	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 21 Build Financial System Depth & Access 21 Build Transport Infrastructure 21 Build Social Infrastructure 21 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 21		12.24 +0.059
2003	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 21 Build Financial System Depth & Access 21 Build Transport Infrastructure 21 Build Social Infrastructure 21 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 21		12.30 +0.062
2004	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 21 Build Financial System Depth & Access 21 Build Transport Infrastructure 21 Build Social Infrastructure 21 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 21		12.37 +0.073
2005	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 22 Build Financial System Depth & Access 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Social Infrastructure 22 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 22		12.45 +0.076
2006	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 22 Build Financial System Depth & Access 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Social Infrastructure 22 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 22		12.52 +0.073
2007	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 22 Build Financial System Depth & Access 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Social Infrastructure 22 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 22		12.59 +0.069
2008	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 22 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 22 Build Labour & Employment 22 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 22 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 22	Global funding seizure	12.14 −0.452
2009	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 23 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 23 Build Labour & Employment 23 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 23 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 23		12.21 +0.066
2010	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 21 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 21 Build Labour & Employment 21 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 21 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 21		12.27 +0.070
2011	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 21 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 21 Build Labour & Employment 21 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 21 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 21		12.35 +0.073
2012	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 21 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 21 Build Labour & Employment 21 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 21 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 21		12.42 +0.071
2013	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 22 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 22 Build Labour & Employment 22 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 22 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 22	Debt service reset	12.49 +0.068
2014	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 22 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 22 Build Digital & AI Competence 22 Build Energy Technologies 22 Build Social Infrastructure 22		12.56 +0.070
2015	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 24 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 24 Build Digital & AI Competence 24 Build Energy Technologies 24 Build Social Infrastructure 24		12.63 +0.069
2016	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 24 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 24 Build Digital & AI Competence 24 Build Energy Technologies 24 Build Social Infrastructure 24		12.69 +0.062
2017	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 24 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 24 Build Digital & AI Competence 24 Build Energy Technologies 24 Build Social Infrastructure 24		12.75 +0.061
2018	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 24 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 24 Build Digital & AI Competence 24 Build Energy Technologies 24 Build Social Infrastructure 24		12.80 +0.054
2019	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 23 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 23 Build Digital & AI Competence 23 Build Energy Technologies 23 Build Social Infrastructure 23		12.84 +0.036
2020	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 23 Build Health System Capability 23 Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 23 Build Digital & Services Trade 23 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 23	Trade bloc ruptureSevere pandemic	12.28 −0.553
2021	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 23 Build Health System Capability 23 Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 23 Build Digital & Services Trade 23 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 13		12.17 −0.116
2022	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 19 Build Health System Capability 9		12.03 −0.137
2023	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 19 Build Health System Capability 19 Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 19 Build Digital & Services Trade 19 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 11		12.06 +0.027
2024	Build Social Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Technologies 9 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 9 Build Digital & AI Competence 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9		12.08 +0.024
2025	Build Social Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Technologies 9 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 9 Build Digital & AI Competence 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9		12.10 +0.014
2026	Build Social Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Technologies 9 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 9 Build Digital & AI Competence 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9		12.11 +0.012

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4
Strategic Infrastructure	4	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Human Capital	4	4	4	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	4	4	4	4	4
Governance & Integrity	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	9	9	8	8	7	6	2	2	2	2	2	1	4	4	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2
Production & Innovation	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	5	4	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−2.028	−140.8	−5.00
No shocks	+1.311	+88.1	+2.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.008	+0.6	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.003	+0.4	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.008	+0.6	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.004	−0.4	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.007	+0.5	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.561	+39.2	+1.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.418	+26.3	+1.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.430	+30.3	+1.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.40	19.00	+7.60	+7.91	−0.74	+0.44
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	6.36	13.25	+6.89	+8.00	−1.15	+0.04
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	13.39	20.00	+6.61	+9.86	−0.62	+0.38
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.43	19.91	+6.48	+7.02	−0.85	+0.56
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	13.08	19.41	+6.33	+7.56	−1.38	+0.14
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	14.88	19.56	+4.68	+5.68	−1.27	+0.26
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.21	18.18	+3.97	+4.71	−0.82	+0.07
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	12.84	16.46	+3.62	+5.69	−2.24	+0.17
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	12.16	15.75	+3.59	+6.25	−2.57	−0.09
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	15.39	18.96	+3.57	+7.01	−2.74	−0.01
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	12.79	16.01	+3.22	+5.31	−2.43	+0.34
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	14.36	17.58	+3.22	+6.21	−2.77	−0.21
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	13.93	17.14	+3.21	+5.28	−2.21	+0.14
Advanced Education	Human Capital	14.66	17.66	+3.00	+3.56	−0.73	+0.17
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	10.52	13.40	+2.88	+4.21	−1.41	+0.07
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	13.66	16.53	+2.87	+4.90	−1.99	−0.04
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	13.49	16.32	+2.83	+3.58	−1.13	+0.39
Health System Capability	Human Capital	12.95	15.55	+2.60	+3.36	−1.27	+0.51
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	15.08	17.27	+2.19	+3.81	−1.97	+0.35
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	9.48	9.74	+0.26	+0.59	−0.57	+0.24
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−0.65	+0.01
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.61	10.37	−0.24	0.00	−0.82	+0.58
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.88	11.61	−0.27	0.00	−0.81	+0.54
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	12.04	11.75	−0.29	0.00	−0.74	+0.45
Foundational Education	Human Capital	14.91	14.54	−0.37	0.00	−1.00	+0.64
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	8.12	7.74	−0.38	0.00	−0.58	+0.19
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	7.48	7.09	−0.39	0.00	−0.59	+0.19
Maritime Power	National Security	7.36	6.74	−0.62	0.00	−0.59	−0.04
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.82	8.20	−0.62	0.00	−0.84	+0.21
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	8.65	8.01	−0.64	0.00	−0.57	−0.06
Land Power	National Security	7.73	7.07	−0.66	0.00	−0.58	−0.07
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	11.19	10.51	−0.68	0.00	−0.75	+0.06
Air Power	National Security	6.32	5.63	−0.69	0.00	−0.60	−0.10
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.64	13.94	−0.70	0.00	−1.10	+0.40
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	14.70	13.95	−0.75	0.00	−0.70	−0.05
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	11.74	10.99	−0.75	0.00	−0.74	−0.01
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	14.05	13.29	−0.76	0.00	−0.87	+0.10
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.44	5.64	−0.80	0.00	−0.87	+0.06
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.51	3.67	−0.84	0.00	−0.61	−0.22
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	14.39	13.54	−0.85	0.00	−0.86	+0.01
Space Operations	National Security	4.58	3.70	−0.88	0.00	−0.61	−0.27
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.66	13.78	−0.88	0.00	−0.78	−0.10
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	14.79	13.90	−0.89	0.00	−0.85	−0.04
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	14.09	13.18	−0.91	0.00	−0.87	−0.04
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	14.36	13.45	−0.91	0.00	−0.86	−0.05
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.79	12.83	−0.96	0.00	−2.56	+1.61
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	14.99	13.97	−1.02	0.00	−1.35	+0.33
Population Health	Human Capital	12.68	11.62	−1.06	0.00	−1.05	0.00
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	13.66	12.60	−1.06	0.00	−1.67	+0.62
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	13.97	12.90	−1.07	0.00	−0.79	−0.28
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	14.05	12.97	−1.08	0.00	−1.15	+0.06
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	16.91	15.65	−1.26	0.00	−1.32	+0.05
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	11.60	10.23	−1.37	0.00	−1.41	+0.05
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	9.88	8.44	−1.44	0.00	−1.42	−0.03
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	5.78	4.30	−1.48	0.00	−1.51	+0.04
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	14.53	13.04	−1.49	0.00	−1.65	+0.16
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	3.53	1.93	−1.60	0.00	−1.57	−0.03
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	8.23	6.62	−1.61	0.00	−1.46	−0.16
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	10.48	8.84	−1.64	0.00	−1.43	−0.22
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	6.58	4.77	−1.81	0.00	−1.50	−0.31
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	13.30	11.40	−1.90	0.00	−1.68	−0.21
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	12.91	10.95	−1.96	0.00	−1.88	−0.08
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	12.39	10.43	−1.96	0.00	−2.38	+0.43
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	10.65	8.66	−1.99	0.00	−1.96	−0.03
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	10.40	8.41	−1.99	0.00	−1.83	−0.15
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	9.69	7.67	−2.02	0.00	−1.99	−0.03
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	11.20	9.14	−2.06	0.00	−1.98	−0.08
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	13.07	10.73	−2.34	0.00	−2.22	−0.12
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	12.10	9.72	−2.38	0.00	−2.40	+0.01
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	15.26	12.53	−2.73	0.00	−2.59	−0.14
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	12.93	10.13	−2.80	0.00	−2.67	−0.13
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	15.33	12.45	−2.88	0.00	−2.59	−0.30
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	10.34	7.29	−3.05	0.00	−2.76	−0.30

Seed 2 of experiment cycle-002.e4-irl. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.