Median simulation · cycle-002.e4-irl

Simulation 1

Ireland, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 1: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.93 at the 1996 position, 12.10 in 2026; 148 actions over 30 rounds and 3 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 1

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 27 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 2 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 12.10 (+0.17); From 11.93
Rank by index: 28; From 29
Domains at Tier 1: 5; From 1
Events: 3 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 19 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 19 Partner Advanced Education 19 Partner Transport Infrastructure 19 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 19		11.95 +0.025
1998	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 19 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 19 Partner Advanced Education 19 Partner Transport Infrastructure 19 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 19		12.00 +0.050
1999	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 19 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 19 Partner Advanced Education 19 Partner Transport Infrastructure 19 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 19		12.06 +0.059
2000	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 20 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 20 Partner Advanced Education 20 Partner Transport Infrastructure 20 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 20		12.12 +0.057
2001	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 20 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 20 Partner Advanced Education 20 Partner Transport Infrastructure 20 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 20		12.18 +0.055
2002	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 21 Build Financial System Depth & Access 21 Build Transport Infrastructure 21 Build Social Infrastructure 21 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 21		12.23 +0.058
2003	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 21 Build Financial System Depth & Access 21 Build Transport Infrastructure 21 Build Social Infrastructure 21 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 21		12.29 +0.061
2004	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 21 Build Financial System Depth & Access 21 Build Transport Infrastructure 21 Build Social Infrastructure 21 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 21		12.37 +0.073
2005	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 22 Build Financial System Depth & Access 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Social Infrastructure 22 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 22		12.44 +0.075
2006	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 22 Build Financial System Depth & Access 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Social Infrastructure 22 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 22		12.51 +0.072
2007	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 22 Build Financial System Depth & Access 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Social Infrastructure 22 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 22		12.58 +0.068
2008	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 22 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 22 Build Labour & Employment 22 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 22 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 22	Global funding seizure	12.13 −0.454
2009	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 23 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 23 Build Labour & Employment 23 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 23 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 23		12.19 +0.065
2010	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 21 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 21 Build Labour & Employment 21 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 21 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 21		12.26 +0.069
2011	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 21 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 21 Build Labour & Employment 21 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 21 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 21		12.33 +0.071
2012	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 21 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 21 Build Labour & Employment 21 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 21 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 21		12.40 +0.070
2013	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 22 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 22 Build Labour & Employment 22 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 22 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 22	Debt service reset	12.47 +0.067
2014	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 22 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 22 Build Digital & AI Competence 22 Build Energy Technologies 22 Build Social Infrastructure 22		12.54 +0.070
2015	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 24 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 24 Build Digital & AI Competence 24 Build Energy Technologies 24 Build Social Infrastructure 24		12.61 +0.069
2016	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 24 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 24 Build Digital & AI Competence 24 Build Energy Technologies 24 Build Social Infrastructure 24		12.67 +0.061
2017	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 24 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 24 Build Digital & AI Competence 24 Build Energy Technologies 24 Build Social Infrastructure 24		12.73 +0.061
2018	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 24 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 24 Build Digital & AI Competence 24 Build Energy Technologies 24 Build Social Infrastructure 24		12.78 +0.053
2019	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 23 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 23 Build Digital & AI Competence 23 Build Energy Technologies 23 Build Social Infrastructure 23		12.82 +0.034
2020	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 23 Build Health System Capability 23 Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 23 Build Digital & Services Trade 23 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 23	Trade bloc ruptureSevere pandemic	12.27 −0.554
2021	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 23 Build Health System Capability 23 Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 23 Build Digital & Services Trade 23 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 23		12.15 −0.116
2022	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 19 Build Health System Capability 19 Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3		12.01 −0.136
2023	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 19 Build Health System Capability 19 Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 19 Build Digital & Services Trade 19 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 13		12.04 +0.029
2024	Build Social Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Technologies 9 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 9 Build Digital & AI Competence 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9		12.07 +0.026
2025	Build Social Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Technologies 9 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 9 Build Digital & AI Competence 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9		12.09 +0.016
2026	Build Social Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Technologies 9 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 9 Build Digital & AI Competence 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9		12.10 +0.014

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Strategic Infrastructure	4	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Human Capital	4	4	4	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	4	4	4	4	4
Governance & Integrity	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	9	9	8	8	7	6	2	2	2	2	2	1	4	4	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2
Production & Innovation	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	5	4	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−2.028	−140.8	−5.00
No shocks	+1.311	+88.1	+2.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.008	+0.6	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.003	+0.4	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.008	+0.6	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.004	−0.4	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.007	+0.5	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.561	+39.2	+1.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.418	+26.3	+1.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.430	+30.3	+1.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.40	18.88	+7.48	+8.00	−0.74	+0.23
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	6.36	13.24	+6.88	+8.01	−1.15	+0.03
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	13.39	20.00	+6.61	+9.69	−0.62	+0.52
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.43	19.89	+6.46	+6.97	−0.86	+0.64
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	13.08	19.28	+6.20	+7.56	−1.38	+0.02
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	14.88	19.71	+4.83	+5.87	−1.27	+0.23
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.21	18.16	+3.95	+4.71	−0.82	+0.06
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	12.84	16.50	+3.66	+5.68	−2.24	+0.21
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	12.16	15.73	+3.57	+6.24	−2.57	−0.09
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	15.39	18.96	+3.57	+7.00	−2.75	0.00
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	14.36	17.56	+3.20	+6.21	−2.77	−0.23
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	13.93	17.10	+3.17	+5.28	−2.22	+0.11
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	12.79	15.89	+3.10	+5.34	−2.43	+0.20
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	10.52	13.59	+3.07	+4.42	−1.41	+0.06
Health System Capability	Human Capital	12.95	15.97	+3.02	+3.81	−1.27	+0.47
Advanced Education	Human Capital	14.66	17.62	+2.96	+3.56	−0.73	+0.13
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	13.49	16.41	+2.92	+3.56	−1.13	+0.49
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	13.66	16.54	+2.88	+4.90	−2.00	−0.02
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	15.08	17.51	+2.43	+3.73	−1.97	+0.68
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	9.48	9.86	+0.38	+0.58	−0.57	+0.37
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−0.66	+0.01
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	12.04	11.85	−0.19	0.00	−0.74	+0.56
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.88	11.63	−0.25	0.00	−0.81	+0.56
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	7.48	7.11	−0.37	0.00	−0.59	+0.21
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.61	10.20	−0.41	0.00	−0.82	+0.41
Foundational Education	Human Capital	14.91	14.49	−0.42	0.00	−1.01	+0.59
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	8.12	7.69	−0.43	0.00	−0.58	+0.15
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	11.19	10.60	−0.59	0.00	−0.75	+0.15
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.64	14.03	−0.61	0.00	−1.10	+0.50
Maritime Power	National Security	7.36	6.74	−0.62	0.00	−0.59	−0.04
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.82	8.17	−0.65	0.00	−0.84	+0.19
Land Power	National Security	7.73	7.08	−0.65	0.00	−0.58	−0.07
Air Power	National Security	6.32	5.67	−0.65	0.00	−0.60	−0.06
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	8.65	7.99	−0.66	0.00	−0.58	−0.07
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	11.74	10.96	−0.78	0.00	−0.74	−0.04
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	14.70	13.90	−0.80	0.00	−0.70	−0.09
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	14.05	13.24	−0.81	0.00	−0.87	+0.06
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.44	5.62	−0.82	0.00	−0.87	+0.05
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	14.39	13.57	−0.82	0.00	−0.86	+0.04
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.66	13.81	−0.85	0.00	−0.78	−0.06
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.51	3.66	−0.85	0.00	−0.61	−0.23
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	14.36	13.47	−0.89	0.00	−0.86	−0.03
Space Operations	National Security	4.58	3.67	−0.91	0.00	−0.61	−0.30
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	14.79	13.87	−0.92	0.00	−0.85	−0.07
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	14.09	13.16	−0.93	0.00	−0.87	−0.06
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	13.66	12.65	−1.01	0.00	−1.67	+0.67
Population Health	Human Capital	12.68	11.61	−1.07	0.00	−1.05	−0.01
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	14.05	12.97	−1.08	0.00	−1.15	+0.06
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	13.97	12.83	−1.14	0.00	−0.79	−0.34
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	14.99	13.84	−1.15	0.00	−1.35	+0.20
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	16.91	15.68	−1.23	0.00	−1.32	+0.08
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	11.60	10.25	−1.35	0.00	−1.41	+0.07
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	14.53	13.05	−1.48	0.00	−1.66	+0.17
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	5.78	4.30	−1.48	0.00	−1.52	+0.05
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	10.48	8.94	−1.54	0.00	−1.43	−0.11
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.79	12.23	−1.56	0.00	−2.57	+1.01
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	3.53	1.94	−1.59	0.00	−1.57	−0.02
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	9.88	8.29	−1.59	0.00	−1.42	−0.17
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	8.23	6.60	−1.63	0.00	−1.46	−0.17
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	6.58	4.74	−1.84	0.00	−1.50	−0.34
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	12.91	10.95	−1.96	0.00	−1.88	−0.08
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	10.65	8.65	−2.00	0.00	−1.96	−0.04
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	13.30	11.30	−2.00	0.00	−1.68	−0.32
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	9.69	7.67	−2.02	0.00	−1.99	−0.02
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	12.39	10.35	−2.04	0.00	−2.39	+0.35
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	10.40	8.35	−2.05	0.00	−1.83	−0.21
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	11.20	9.13	−2.07	0.00	−1.98	−0.09
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	13.07	10.74	−2.33	0.00	−2.22	−0.11
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	12.10	9.73	−2.37	0.00	−2.40	+0.02
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	15.26	12.50	−2.76	0.00	−2.59	−0.17
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	15.33	12.43	−2.90	0.00	−2.59	−0.32
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	12.93	9.99	−2.94	0.00	−2.67	−0.26
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	10.34	7.30	−3.04	0.00	−2.76	−0.28

Seed 1 of experiment cycle-002.e4-irl. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.