Simulation 11
Kenya, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 11: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 7.31 at the 1996 position, 4.18 in 2026; 150 actions over 30 rounds and 9 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 11
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 29 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 22 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 4.18 (−3.14)
- From 7.31
- Rank by index
- 136
- From 77
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 9 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Breadbasket failure | 7.06 −0.255 |
| 1998 |
| 7.07 +0.007 | |
| 1999 |
| 7.07 +0.005 | |
| 2000 |
| 7.08 +0.007 | |
| 2001 |
| 7.08 +0.007 | |
| 2002 |
| 7.09 +0.008 | |
| 2003 |
| 7.11 +0.013 | |
| 2004 |
| 7.12 +0.015 | |
| 2005 |
| 7.14 +0.020 | |
| 2006 |
| 7.17 +0.026 | |
| 2007 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 6.46 −0.704 |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 6.29 −0.170 |
| 2009 |
| 6.30 +0.006 | |
| 2010 |
| 6.30 +0.004 | |
| 2011 |
| Breadbasket failure | 5.77 −0.532 |
| 2012 |
| 5.77 −0.003 | |
| 2013 |
| 5.77 0.000 | |
| 2014 |
| 5.78 +0.006 | |
| 2015 |
| 5.78 +0.007 | |
| 2016 |
| 5.79 +0.007 | |
| 2017 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 5.53 −0.257 |
| 2018 |
| 5.55 +0.015 | |
| 2019 |
| 5.56 +0.014 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemicBreadbasket failure | 4.87 −0.690 |
| 2021 |
| 4.88 +0.004 | |
| 2022 |
| Breadbasket failure | 4.39 −0.480 |
| 2023 |
| 4.40 +0.003 | |
| 2024 |
| Core disaster | 4.18 −0.219 |
| 2025 |
| 4.18 −0.002 | |
| 2026 |
| 4.18 0.000 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| National Security | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Human Capital | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 |
| Information & Influence | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Governance & Integrity | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 |
| Financial Strength | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 23 | 23 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Production & Innovation | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 17 |
| Trade & Investment | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.935 | −69.0 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +4.026 | +282.5 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.005 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.007 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.012 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.004 | −0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +1.051 | +73.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.719 | +50.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.534 | +37.0 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.97 | 11.33 | +1.36 | +4.67 | 0.00 | −2.70 | −0.61 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.02 | 11.15 | +1.13 | +4.05 | 0.00 | −2.52 | −0.38 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 7.34 | 7.80 | +0.46 | +3.78 | 0.00 | −3.15 | −0.16 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.75 | 7.01 | +0.26 | +4.60 | 0.00 | −4.10 | −0.24 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 8.96 | 9.16 | +0.20 | +2.66 | 0.00 | −2.09 | −0.37 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 9.00 | 9.02 | +0.02 | +2.54 | 0.00 | −2.25 | −0.27 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.98 | −0.07 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.41 | 1.32 | −0.09 | +1.51 | 0.00 | −3.37 | −0.05 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 7.87 | 7.75 | −0.12 | +2.18 | 0.00 | −1.91 | −0.39 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 6.61 | 6.12 | −0.49 | +2.29 | 0.00 | −2.70 | −0.08 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.28 | 0.00 | −1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.23 | −0.05 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 9.23 | 7.63 | −1.60 | +1.36 | 0.00 | −2.56 | −0.41 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 9.53 | 7.86 | −1.67 | +2.42 | 0.00 | −4.02 | −0.07 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.78 | 0.00 | −1.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.21 | −0.15 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 8.84 | 7.06 | −1.78 | +2.83 | 0.00 | −4.45 | −0.16 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.19 | 6.33 | −1.86 | +1.27 | 0.00 | −2.74 | −0.38 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 1.93 | 0.00 | −1.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.21 | −0.23 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 8.35 | 6.29 | −2.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.13 | +0.07 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 7.81 | 5.75 | −2.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.15 | +0.08 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 7.72 | 5.59 | −2.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.15 | +0.02 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.48 | 1.31 | −2.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.16 | −0.01 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 7.43 | 5.26 | −2.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.15 | −0.01 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 3.00 | 0.73 | −2.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.18 | −0.09 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 7.24 | 4.97 | −2.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.17 | −0.11 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.28 | 0.98 | −2.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.17 | −0.13 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.72 | 0.40 | −2.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.19 | −0.14 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 7.88 | 5.35 | −2.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.14 | −0.38 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.18 | 2.51 | −2.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.11 | −0.56 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.20 | 2.49 | −2.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.50 | −0.21 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 7.72 | 4.88 | −2.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.84 | +0.01 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 7.16 | 4.30 | −2.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.88 | +0.01 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 7.47 | 4.51 | −2.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.67 | −0.29 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 7.48 | 4.48 | −3.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.67 | −0.34 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 4.32 | 1.29 | −3.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.80 | −0.23 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.36 | 3.17 | −3.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.84 | −0.35 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 6.11 | 2.92 | −3.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.72 | −0.46 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.65 | 7.39 | −3.26 | +2.01 | 0.00 | −4.29 | −0.97 |
| Air Power | National Security | 5.55 | 2.27 | −3.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.75 | −0.54 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.68 | 1.37 | −3.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.90 | −0.41 |
| Land Power | National Security | 8.26 | 4.95 | −3.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.63 | −0.68 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 4.27 | 0.94 | −3.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.80 | −0.53 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.12 | 5.73 | −3.39 | +1.33 | 0.00 | −3.71 | −1.02 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 3.62 | 0.20 | −3.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.83 | −0.60 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 7.88 | 4.36 | −3.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.23 | −0.29 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 8.61 | 5.01 | −3.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.46 | −0.14 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 7.86 | 4.24 | −3.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.23 | −0.39 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 6.39 | 2.70 | −3.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.29 | −0.41 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 7.31 | 3.58 | −3.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.49 | −0.23 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.95 | 7.21 | −3.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.80 | −0.94 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 7.28 | 3.52 | −3.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.74 | −0.02 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 7.87 | 3.99 | −3.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.72 | −0.16 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 9.67 | 5.76 | −3.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.79 | −0.12 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 8.69 | 4.70 | −3.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.73 | −0.25 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 9.32 | 5.33 | −3.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.26 | −0.73 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 7.64 | 3.64 | −4.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.60 | −0.40 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 10.34 | 6.17 | −4.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.61 | −0.56 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 6.79 | 2.60 | −4.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.88 | −0.30 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 6.42 | 2.17 | −4.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.78 | −0.47 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 9.98 | 5.65 | −4.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.78 | −0.54 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 8.41 | 4.02 | −4.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.85 | −0.54 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 8.71 | 4.27 | −4.44 | +3.72 | 0.00 | −7.62 | −0.55 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 8.93 | 4.47 | −4.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.95 | −0.51 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 9.12 | 4.64 | −4.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.27 | −0.21 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 7.18 | 2.68 | −4.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.91 | −0.59 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 7.19 | 2.63 | −4.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.91 | −0.65 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 8.74 | 4.12 | −4.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.29 | −0.32 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 6.69 | 2.04 | −4.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.17 | −0.47 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.48 | 3.24 | −5.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.66 | −0.58 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 7.42 | 2.01 | −5.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.95 | −0.46 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 7.79 | 2.12 | −5.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −5.40 | −0.27 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 9.50 | 3.75 | −5.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −5.39 | −0.36 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 9.12 | 2.79 | −6.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −6.61 | +0.28 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 8.72 | 0.81 | −7.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −7.43 | −0.48 |
Seed 11 of experiment cycle-002.e4-ken. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.