Simulation 15
Saudi Arabia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 15: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.02 at the 1996 position, 11.24 in 2026; 166 actions over 30 rounds and 9 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 15
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 24 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 26 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 11.24 (+0.21)
- From 11.02
- Rank by index
- 35
- From 35
- Domains at Tier 1
- 2
- From 0
- Events
- 9 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 11.04 +0.024 | |
| 1998 |
| Global funding seizure | 11.04 −0.005 |
| 1999 |
| 11.09 +0.048 | |
| 2000 |
| 11.13 +0.046 | |
| 2001 |
| 11.18 +0.044 | |
| 2002 |
| 11.22 +0.041 | |
| 2003 |
| Regional war spillover | 11.13 −0.088 |
| 2004 |
| 11.17 +0.042 | |
| 2005 |
| 11.21 +0.035 | |
| 2006 |
| 11.24 +0.032 | |
| 2007 |
| 11.26 +0.023 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 11.24 −0.026 |
| 2009 |
| 11.27 +0.031 | |
| 2010 |
| 11.30 +0.031 | |
| 2011 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 11.14 −0.157 |
| 2012 |
| 11.17 +0.026 | |
| 2013 |
| 11.19 +0.022 | |
| 2014 |
| Global funding seizure | 11.12 −0.067 |
| 2015 |
| Regional war spillover | 10.79 −0.328 |
| 2016 |
| 10.85 +0.056 | |
| 2017 |
| 10.94 +0.093 | |
| 2018 |
| 11.03 +0.089 | |
| 2019 |
| Hybrid coercion | 10.82 −0.210 |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemicGlobal funding seizure | 10.52 −0.307 |
| 2021 |
| 10.61 +0.098 | |
| 2022 |
| 10.71 +0.101 | |
| 2023 |
| Middle East settlement | 10.84 +0.130 |
| 2024 |
| 10.98 +0.139 | |
| 2025 |
| 11.14 +0.157 | |
| 2026 |
| 11.24 +0.095 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Human Capital | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| Financial Strength | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Production & Innovation | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.023 | −149.8 | −1.50 |
| No shocks | +0.925 | +65.4 | +2.50 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.001 | −0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.006 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.006 | +0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.001 | −0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.007 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.201 | +15.5 | +1.50 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.168 | +13.7 | +0.70 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.287 | +20.7 | +1.30 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 11.50 | 18.87 | +7.37 | +7.77 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.02 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.44 | 12.26 | +6.82 | +7.95 | 0.00 | −1.22 | +0.10 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 7.34 | 13.79 | +6.45 | +7.85 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.22 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 12.53 | 18.44 | +5.91 | +7.48 | 0.00 | −1.36 | −0.21 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.00 | 14.60 | +5.60 | +6.41 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.44 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.25 | 17.67 | +5.42 | +7.15 | 0.00 | −1.77 | +0.04 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 12.79 | 17.41 | +4.62 | +7.16 | 0.00 | −2.33 | −0.21 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 11.06 | 15.65 | +4.59 | +7.28 | 0.00 | −2.17 | −0.51 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.03 | 17.18 | +4.15 | +6.63 | 0.00 | −2.73 | +0.25 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 8.50 | 12.14 | +3.64 | +3.28 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.83 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.02 | 16.49 | +3.47 | +5.05 | 0.00 | −1.56 | −0.01 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 10.78 | 14.23 | +3.45 | +5.06 | 0.00 | −1.77 | +0.15 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 12.68 | 15.99 | +3.31 | +4.64 | 0.00 | −1.45 | +0.12 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.73 | 17.69 | +2.96 | +4.09 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.23 |
| Air Power | National Security | 15.72 | 18.50 | +2.78 | +4.30 | 0.00 | −1.28 | −0.23 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.77 | 16.52 | +2.75 | +3.89 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.10 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 14.03 | 16.19 | +2.16 | +3.37 | 0.00 | −1.45 | +0.24 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 15.46 | 17.25 | +1.79 | +4.63 | 0.00 | −2.35 | −0.48 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.24 | 15.91 | +1.67 | +2.27 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.17 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.16 | 14.12 | +0.96 | +2.23 | 0.00 | −1.42 | +0.15 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.05 | 13.97 | +0.92 | +1.91 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.14 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.38 | 14.24 | +0.86 | +1.56 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.01 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.67 | 19.51 | +0.84 | +2.24 | 0.00 | −1.57 | +0.74 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 12.10 | 12.89 | +0.79 | +2.07 | 0.00 | −1.44 | +0.15 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.19 | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.54 | +0.04 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 12.63 | 12.75 | +0.12 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −1.59 | +0.23 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.29 | 10.09 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.32 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 12.94 | 12.65 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.97 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.14 | 14.79 | −0.35 | +0.71 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.01 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 9.27 | 8.79 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.05 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 12.95 | 12.43 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | −0.03 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 8.25 | 7.65 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.06 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 10.97 | 10.23 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | 0.00 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.17 | 9.38 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.39 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 9.10 | 8.22 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | −0.02 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 8.91 | 8.01 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | +0.59 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 8.04 | 7.05 | −0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.51 | +0.52 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.44 | 2.44 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.26 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 7.02 | 5.98 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | −0.18 |
| Land Power | National Security | 13.60 | 12.55 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.21 | +0.16 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 5.64 | 4.54 | −1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.22 | +0.12 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 6.55 | 5.41 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | −0.07 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 5.09 | 3.94 | −1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | −0.06 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 9.07 | 7.88 | −1.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | −0.32 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 11.30 | 10.11 | −1.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | −0.20 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 8.43 | 7.22 | −1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | +0.13 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.39 | 6.15 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.41 | +0.17 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 13.33 | 12.09 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | −0.18 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.53 | 2.28 | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | +0.01 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.37 | 8.12 | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.20 | −0.05 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.42 | 9.16 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.18 | −0.07 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.51 | 1.22 | −1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | −0.01 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 15.58 | 14.23 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.21 | −0.14 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 8.45 | 7.10 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.51 | +0.15 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 5.95 | 4.57 | −1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.21 | −0.16 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.59 | 10.09 | −1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.53 | +0.03 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 13.13 | 11.60 | −1.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.45 | −0.09 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 9.90 | 8.30 | −1.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.79 | +0.19 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.64 | 13.00 | −1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | −0.36 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 14.88 | 13.23 | −1.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.46 | −0.20 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.52 | 7.81 | −1.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.49 | −0.23 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 5.18 | 3.44 | −1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.42 | −0.32 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 13.28 | 11.46 | −1.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.74 | −0.08 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.80 | 9.97 | −1.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.82 | −0.01 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 14.55 | 12.72 | −1.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.70 | −0.13 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 12.77 | 10.94 | −1.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.05 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.19 | 11.32 | −1.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.74 | −0.14 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 8.72 | 6.79 | −1.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.81 | −0.12 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 13.20 | 11.16 | −2.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.98 | −0.06 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 11.00 | 8.71 | −2.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.31 | +0.02 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 9.02 | 6.73 | −2.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.20 | −0.10 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 9.95 | 7.48 | −2.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.35 | −0.12 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 17.12 | 14.47 | −2.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.22 | −0.43 |
Seed 15 of experiment cycle-002.e4-sau. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.