E4 · cycle-002.e4-zwe

Zimbabwe, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Zimbabwe decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Regional war spillover in year 2, Trade bloc rupture in year 4, Breadbasket failure in year 6, Chronic disease advance in year 8, Global funding seizure in year 12, Legitimacy rupture in year 12, Severe pandemic in year 12, Legitimacy rupture in year 21, Core disaster in year 23, Breadbasket failure in year 23, Severe pandemic in year 24, Breadbasket failure in year 28.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 3.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 1.18 (−6.03); From 7.22; 1.17 to 1.20
Rank by index: 197; From 79; 197 to 197
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 175; From 88; 175 to 175

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	7.22	1.17	1.18	1.20	higher
Rank by index	79	197	197	197	lower
Tier rank	88	175	175	175	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	519.5	92.2	93.7	95.1	higher
Goal-weighted score	519.5	92.2	93.7	95.1	higher
Resilient score	519.5	93.6 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 58 per cent, buy took 42 per cent, partner took 0 per cent of the 201 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Zimbabwe actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 7.22; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 4.33; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 1.18; 1.12 to 1.25
Skill against persistence: −0.05; group error 2.99 against 2.85 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	3.42	1.35	0.04 0.0–0.1	−1.31	right
Strategic Infrastructure	9.06	5.34	1.97 1.8–2.1	−3.37	right
National Security	5.19	3.02	0.95 0.9–1.0	−2.07	right
Human Capital	9.09	6.09	3.80 3.7–3.9	−2.29	right
Information & Influence	6.75	4.64	0.34 0.3–0.4	−4.30	right
Governance & Integrity	7.98	5.54	3.01 2.9–3.1	−2.53	right
Financial Strength	7.54	3.70	0.00 0.0–0.0	−3.69	right
Production & Innovation	7.82	4.56	0.49 0.4–0.6	−4.07	right
Trade & Investment	8.10	4.79	0.02 0.0–0.1	−4.76	right

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1997 · S02 × 0.7 Unbudgeted war veterans' payouts and the 14 November 1997 'Black Friday' collapse of the Zimbabwe dollar triggered a sovereign and banking crisis.
1998 · S03 × 0.4 Zimbabwe's military intervention in the Democratic Republic of Congo drained scarce fiscal resources for several years.
2000 · S01 × 0.6 EU and US sanctions over land seizures and political violence cut Zimbabwe off from Western finance and development assistance.
2002 · S06 × 0.8 Drought and the collapse of commercial agriculture under fast-track land reform produced a national food availability crisis, with almost half the population needing food aid.
2004 · S19 × 0.8 Scale-up of antiretroviral therapy through PEPFAR and the Global Fund began to reverse Zimbabwe's severe HIV/AIDS death rate.
2008 · S02 × 1 Hyperinflation reached 231 million per cent and the Zimbabwe dollar was abandoned, wiping out savings and formal financial intermediation.
2008 · S05 × 0.7 The disputed presidential election and orchestrated violence forced a power-sharing deal after months of crisis.
2008 · S10 × 0.5 A cholera epidemic killed over 4,000 people as the health system collapsed, far exceeding surge capacity.
2017 · S05 × 0.4 A military intervention ended Robert Mugabe's 37-year rule and installed a new ZANU-PF leadership.
2019 · S07 × 0.6 Cyclone Idai struck eastern Zimbabwe, destroying homes, roads and crops in Chimanimani and Chipinge.
2019 · S06 × 0.6 A severe drought compounded by Cyclone Idai left millions food-insecure and cut agricultural output.
2020 · S10 × 0.7 The COVID-19 pandemic hit a strained health system and an economy already in crisis, with lockdowns deepening contraction.
2024 · S06 × 0.7 An El Niño drought caused the worst mid-season dry spell in decades, leaving over half the population needing food aid.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2000 · buy · 5% each The government prioritised unbudgeted war veterans' payouts, the DRC intervention and state control of the economy, draining the fiscus and accelerating decline. (Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Land Power, Force Generation & Mobilisation, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Industrial & Sectoral Base)
2000–2008 · build · 5% each Fast-track land reform, Operation Murambatsvina and violent electioneering reordered rural society and the urban economy while dismantling commercial agriculture. (Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Land Power, Political Institutions & Civic Participation, Structural Transformation & Complexity)
2009–2013 · partner · 5% each The Government of National Unity adopted full dollarisation, rebuilt tax collection and stabilised the financial sector with international technical support. (Monetary & Currency Capability, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Financial System Depth & Access, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Technology Adoption & Diffusion)
2014–2017 · build · 5% each The indigenisation and economic empowerment agenda prioritised majority ownership in mining and manufacturing, deterring investment and further shrinking the formal economy. (Resource Infrastructure, Industrial & Sectoral Base, Investment Attraction & Projection, Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure)
2018–2021 · buy · 2% each The Mnangagwa administration launched 'Zimbabwe is open for business', pursued arrears clearance and re-engagement, and sought mining and agricultural investment while reintroducing a domestic currency. (Investment Attraction & Projection, Resource Infrastructure, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Monetary & Currency Capability, Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks)
2022–2026 · build · 2% each Amid renewed inflation and debt distress, the government prioritised mining revenue, energy imports and drought response while introducing the ZiG currency and pursuing arrears clearance. (Resource Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Monetary & Currency Capability, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): Main uncertainties include precise 1996 scores for informal and military capabilities, and the mapping of Zimbabwe's idiosyncratic crises (hyperinflation, land reform, sanctions) onto generic event templates. The post-2017 policy record is contested and fast-changing, especially currency reforms and debt arrears negotiations.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-002. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Zimbabwe played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 7.22 to a median of 1.18 (−6.03), with 90 per cent of simulations between 1.16 and 1.21 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 79 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 88. Its base income is 150 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 199 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Agriculture & Food Infrastructure (build, 37 credits, 18.7 per cent); Land Power (build, 30 credits, 15.1 per cent); Land Power (buy, 28 credits, 13.7 per cent); Agriculture & Food Infrastructure (buy, 28 credits, 13.7 per cent); Political Institutions & Civic Participation (build, 26 credits, 13.2 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 58 per cent, buy 42 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.229, and the most repeated action appeared in 27 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, National Security; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 12 shocks and 1 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S06 (90 firings in 30 simulations, −46.7 points each); S02 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −37.2 points each); S05 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −32.3 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 30 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −12.79; Monetary & Currency Capability −12.03; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −10.72; Investment Attraction & Projection −9.33 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−1.63 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (−1.18 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Transport Infrastructure (−1.12 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 197 (5th to 95th percentile 197 to 197), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 175; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 94 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +7.027 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 7.027 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by +0.083: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.061 and +0.033, for example 1997 buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure (7 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +1.174 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

saturation_low (warn): 100% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 32 groups).

retired_words (warn): e4-zwe/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 38; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 28) ends −0.03 from it, with 12 shocks and 1 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 7.22 the model ends at 1.18, where the 2026 ratings put it at 4.34. Group scores miss by 2.99 points on average, against 2.85 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.05); the change in each domain has the right sign in 100 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: trade and investment (−4.76); furthest above: critical technology (−1.31) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	For example
Hold instead of the method	+0.083	+6.2
No shocks	+7.027	+495.2
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.003	+0.2	1997 buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure (7 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.011	+0.8	1997 buy Land Power (7 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.011	+0.8	1997 buy Force Generation & Mobilisation (7 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.061	−4.7	1997 build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (7 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.033	+2.5	1998 buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure (7 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.443	+33.0	2024 S06 (-54.3 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+1.174	+86.0	2008 S02 (-46.0 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.717	+53.8	2002 S06 (-44.4 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	4.0	−18.8
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	6.5	−37.2
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	100 per cent	2.0	−20.6
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	100 per cent	16.5	−32.3
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	100 per cent	19.0	−46.8
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	23.0	−25.8
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	18.0	−24.2
Chronic disease advance S19	Upside	100 per cent	8.0	+6.7

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	0.00	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.28	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−1.28	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.55	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−1.55	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	1.89	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−1.89	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	2.18	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−2.18	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.72	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−2.72	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	6.78	3.74 3.61 to 3.85	−3.04	1.63	27
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.39	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−3.39	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	3.62	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−3.62	0.00	0
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	3.73	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−3.73	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	7.58	3.58 3.54 to 3.61	−4.00	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	8.25	3.89 3.82 to 3.97	−4.36	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	4.38	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−4.38	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	4.60	0.18 0.15 to 0.23	−4.42	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	9.27	4.78 4.70 to 4.85	−4.49	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.49	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−4.49	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	7.73	3.22 3.09 to 3.33	−4.51	2.75	58
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.51	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−4.51	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.40	2.88 2.77 to 3.03	−4.52	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.94	2.36 2.33 to 2.41	−4.58	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	8.52	3.91 3.84 to 4.01	−4.61	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	4.62	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−4.62	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	7.72	3.08 3.02 to 3.15	−4.64	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	7.73	3.08 3.03 to 3.14	−4.65	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	4.67	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−4.67	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	9.40	4.63 4.55 to 4.72	−4.77	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.18	0.23 0.17 to 0.29	−4.95	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.11	0.95 0.87 to 1.04	−5.16	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.20	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−5.20	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	5.27	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−5.27	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	6.14	0.75 0.67 to 0.87	−5.39	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	8.51	3.02 2.91 to 3.19	−5.49	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.97	5.14 4.93 to 5.31	−5.83	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	8.89	2.85 2.75 to 2.96	−6.04	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	8.65	2.58 2.46 to 2.66	−6.07	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.21	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−6.21	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	6.39	0.09 0.00 to 0.13	−6.30	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	9.46	3.15 2.94 to 3.30	−6.31	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	9.75	3.44 3.24 to 3.65	−6.31	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	8.48	2.16 2.01 to 2.25	−6.32	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.42	4.01 3.82 to 4.24	−6.41	2.83	65
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.64	2.20 2.06 to 2.47	−6.44	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	8.08	1.62 1.43 to 1.78	−6.46	0.94	15
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	7.66	1.18 1.15 to 1.23	−6.48	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	6.51	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−6.51	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	8.54	2.00 1.76 to 2.20	−6.54	1.52	25
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	8.58	1.94 1.75 to 2.12	−6.64	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	6.69	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−6.69	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	6.72	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−6.72	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	6.79	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−6.79	0.00	0
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.37	3.39 3.29 to 3.49	−6.98	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	7.92	0.79 0.66 to 0.91	−7.13	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	7.77	0.63 0.56 to 0.73	−7.14	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	7.18	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−7.18	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	7.36	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−7.36	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.94	2.57 2.20 to 2.80	−7.37	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	7.38	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−7.38	0.00	0
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.60	3.16 2.84 to 3.40	−7.44	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	10.05	2.57 2.45 to 2.70	−7.48	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	7.71	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−7.71	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	8.21	0.16 0.09 to 0.24	−8.05	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	8.12	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−8.12	0.34	8
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	8.13	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−8.13	0.00	0
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.20	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−8.20	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	8.22	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−8.22	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	9.55	1.15 0.98 to 1.32	−8.40	0.22	3
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.03	1.60 1.39 to 1.97	−8.43	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.35	0.85 0.60 to 1.04	−8.50	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	8.54	0.00 0.00 to 0.06	−8.54	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	8.66	0.00 0.00 to 0.14	−8.66	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	8.69	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−8.69	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.75	0.01 0.00 to 0.09	−8.74	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	10.02	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−10.02	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 3.6e-15
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 11.247
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.9e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 0.45 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
passtier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 2 tiers (0 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 79; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
warnsaturation_low100% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 32 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.229; most funded group hard.strategic_infrastructure.agriculture_and_food_infrastructure
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 27% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-002.e4-zwe. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Zimbabwe (ZWE)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Regional war spillover in year 2, Trade bloc rupture in year 4, Breadbasket failure in year 6, Chronic disease advance in year 8, Global funding seizure in year 12, Legitimacy rupture in year 12, Severe pandemic in year 12, Legitimacy rupture in year 21, Core disaster in year 23, Breadbasket failure in year 23, Severe pandemic in year 24, Breadbasket failure in year 28
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 149.7 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-002), cycle 2 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 3.9 seconds in all; 985 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.